Dynamics of partisan journalism: journalist-source relations in the context of a local newspaper's anti-paedophile housing agenda

This article explores the influence of partisanship on the framing of a local news agenda. Using a case study approach, it explores how one local newspaper in the East Midlands of England, the Nottingham-based Evening Post, reacted with hostility to leaked Home Office plans housing high profile paedophiles in its locality (albeit inside the grounds of the local jail). Within weeks, though, the paper’s news frame had shifted from hostility toward the Home Office to a more sympathetic news frame reporting how local professionals would manage risks posed by paedophiles in Nottingham. In order to make sense of the local dynamic underpinning this changing news frame the paper uses interview data to explore interactions between local journalists and key protagonists to understand the predictable and unpredictable factors that shaped the terms of their reporting. The article concludes by discussing the significance of partisan dynamics on the framing of a highly charged local and national paedophile-related issue

Quantifying Animal Spirits: News Media and Sentiment in the Housing Market

This paper develops first measures of housing sentiment for 34 cities across the U.S. by quantifying the qualitative tone of local housing news. I find that housing media sentiment has significant predictive power for future house prices, above and beyond his- torically predictive factors and past returns. Sentiment leads price movements by more than two years, and is highly correlated with available survey expectations measures. The structure of the media sentiment index itself reflects a backward-looking nature consistent with extrapolative expectations. Consistent with theories of sentiment, the media sentiment index has a greater effect in markets with more minority homebuyers, more speculative investors, and across lower-priced homes. Including additional controls for subprime lending and easy credit has no impact on the magnitude of the results, but the predictive effect of sentiment is amplified in markets where more subprime loans were issued. Directly investigating the content across news articles finds that results are not driven by news stories of unobserved fundamentals.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/99759/1/1200_Soo.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/99759/4/1200_Soo_Oct2015.pdfDescription of 1200_Soo_Oct2015.pdf : October 2015 Revisio

Essays in Household Finance and Housing Economics

With the wake of the United States financial crisis in 2008, policymakers and academics have begun to reevaluate the nature and impact of household financial decisions. While standard economic theory assumes individuals are fully rational, the devastation of the crisis suggests households may be subject to systematic biases that can have significant effects on the economy. Chapter 1 asks whether consumer sentiment has an impact on asset prices, particularly during the boom and bust of housing prices that instigated the most recent financial crisis. Empirically identifying a link between sentiment and prices is challenging, however, as measures of investor beliefs are difficult to construct. This paper develops the first measures of sentiment across local housing markets by quantifying the tone in local housing newspaper articles. The sentiment index forecasts both the boom and bust of housing prices by more than two years, and can predict over 70 percent of the variation in national housing prices above and beyond economic fundamentals. Chapter 2 then asks whether households can time the own versus rent decision successfully and generate profitable savings. Using 29 years of historical data, this essay creates robust measures of the costs of owning and renting and evaluates whether owning or renting was less expensive ex-post across 39 metropolitan areas in the United States. We find that households can potentially time their homeownership profitably and can save as much as 50 percent of annual rent costs using a few simple trading rules. Chapter 3 addresses whether the lack of household financial literacy has significant consequences for household wealth. We find that an overwhelming majority of households lack basic financial skills and that financial literacy appears to have a significant effect on wealth above and beyond other observed factors. Our results suggest that improving financial literacy could have large positive effects on wealth accumulation

Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market

Survey data suggests that news of changes in business conditions are significantly related to house prices and consumers' beliefs of favorable buying conditions in the housing market. This paper explores the transmission of "news shocks" as a source of boom-bust cycles in the housing market. News on shocks originated in different sectors of the economy can generate booms in the housing market in accordance with the average behavior in the data; expectations on monetary policy and in inflationary shocks that are not fulfilled can also lead to the observed subsequent macroeconomic recession. Investigating the role of the credit market for house market fluctuations we find that favorable credit conditions that are expected to be reversed in the near future generate boom-bust cycle dynamics in line with the most recent episode. Further, credit conditions also affect boom-bust cycles generated by news shocks originated in other sectors of the economy. In particular, lower loan-to-value ratios reduce the severity of expectations-driven cycles and the volatility of household debt, aggregate consumption and GDP.boom-bust cycles; credit frictions; housing market

Fuzzy !-automata and its relationships

A notion of finite ! - automata with single initial state is proposed. The concept of fuzzy deterministic Buchi automaton and Muller automaton with full acceptance component which is recognize the same fuzzy language are studied. We also establish the relationship between fuzzy deterministic Rabin automaton and Muller automaton. Further, we define the transition fuzzy ! - automata and show that these automata recognize the same fuzzy language as in the fuzzy ! - automata. Finally, we give some closure properties of fuzzy deterministic ! - automata

Two Essays in Real Estate Dynamics

Real estate dynamics encompass a multifaceted interplay of various factors that shape the market. This dissertation presents two distinct essays that delve into critical aspects of real estate dynamics. In the first essay, we investigate the influence of short-term rentals, specifically Airbnb activity, on neighboring house prices in Hampton Roads, Virginia. By employing robust measures such as active listings, reservations, and their cumulative impact over different periods, we uncover a positive association between prior Airbnb rental activity and housing sales prices. Moreover, we observe a spatial decay effect, where the localized impact diminishes with increasing geographic distance, particularly beyond 500 meters. Further analysis employing quantile regression reveals that the effect of Airbnb rentals is more pronounced for higher-priced homes, while middle-range house prices demonstrate a relatively lower sensitivity to Airbnb activity. These findings contribute to the existing literature by shedding light on the nuanced relationship between Airbnb and housing prices. The second essay delves into the relationship between media content sentiments and returns of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Leveraging proprietary investor sentiment measures from Thomson Reuters, including dimensions such as stress, emotion vs. fact, dividends, and price direction, we employ a multi-step approach to examine their impact on REIT returns. Through time series regression and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, we establish the statistical significance of media content sentiments in explaining REIT returns and market volatility. Employing Lasso analysis, we identify the sentiment related to price direction as the most influential factor impacting excess REIT returns consistently across various REIT types and weighting schemes. Our analysis enhances traditional asset pricing models, improving the adjusted R-squared, and provides insights into the role of media sentiment in shaping REIT returns. By integrating these two essays, this dissertation contributes to a comprehensive understanding of real estate dynamics. The first essay illuminates the impact of Airbnb activity on house prices, emphasizing the spatial decay effect and differential sensitivity across price distributions. The second essay highlights the significance of media content sentiments in explaining REIT returns and the findings are validated through Covariance-based Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and path analysis. Collectively, these essays broaden our knowledge of the complex dynamics within the real estate market and provide valuable insights for researchers, policymakers, and market participants alike