Probabilistic Safety Analysis of High Speed and Conventional Lines Using Bayesian Networks

[EN] A Bayesian network approach is presented for probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) of railway lines. The idea consists of identifying and reproducing all the elements that the train encounters when circulating along a railway line, such as light and speed limit signals, tunnel or viaduct entries or exits, cuttings and embankments, acoustic sounds received in the cabin, curves, switches, etc. In addition, since the human error is very relevant for safety evaluation, the automatic train protection (ATP) systems and the driver behavior and its time evolution are modelled and taken into account to determine the probabilities of human errors. The nodes of the Bayesian network, their links and the associated probability tables are automatically constructed based on the line data that need to be carefully given. The conditional probability tables are reproduced by closed formulas, which facilitate the modelling and the sensitivity analysis. A sorted list of the most dangerous elements in the line is obtained, which permits making decisions about the line safety and programming maintenance operations in order to optimize them and reduce the maintenance costs substantially. The proposed methodology is illustrated by its application to several cases that include real lines such as the Palencia-Santander and the Dublin-Belfast lines.Grande Andrade, Z.; Castillo Ron, E.; Nogal, M.; O'connor, A. (2016). Probabilistic Safety Analysis of High Speed and Conventional Lines Using Bayesian Networks. En XII Congreso de ingeniería del transporte. 7, 8 y 9 de Junio, Valencia (España). Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. 362-371. https://doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2015.3428OCS36237

Optimal seismic upgrade timing in seaports with increasing throughput demand via real options

A real options (RO) formulation is proposed for decision-making on the timing to upgrade the seismic performance of existing seaports with increasing throughput demand in earthquake prone areas. The pay-off of the seismic upgrade investment option is estimated based on projected net earnings, repair cost, and downtime for a damaging reference seismic event having a pre-specified annual probability of occurrence. These projections inform a discrete-time RO binomial tree, following the American option valuation framework, which propagates the probability of the reference seismic event assuming Poisson temporal distribution of earthquake occurrence. The net present value of the expected annual payoff of the considered investment is used as an index supporting risk-informed decision-making discounted by the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Numerical examples pertaining to decision makers with different capital cost, namely port authorities and terminal operators, operating in different economic environments typical of developed and developing countries are furnished to illustrate the applicability of the proposed RO formulation. It is found that high WACC and/or low throughput growth bring the optimal seismic upgrade timing forward, while earthquake consequences and upgrade cost have almost no influence on this timing

Knowledge-based support in Non-Destructive Testing for health monitoring of aircraft structures

Maintenance manuals include general methods and procedures for industrial maintenance and they contain information about principles of maintenance methods. Particularly, Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) methods are important for the detection of aeronautical defects and they can be used for various kinds of material and in different environments. Conventional non-destructive evaluation inspections are done at periodic maintenance checks. Usually, the list of tools used in a maintenance program is simply located in the introduction of manuals, without any precision as regards to their characteristics, except for a short description of the manufacturer and tasks in which they are employed. Improving the identification concepts of the maintenance tools is needed to manage the set of equipments and establish a system of equivalence: it is necessary to have a consistent maintenance conceptualization, flexible enough to fit all current equipment, but also all those likely to be added/used in the future. Our contribution is related to the formal specification of the system of functional equivalences that can facilitate the maintenance activities with means to determine whether a tool can be substituted for another by observing their key parameters in the identified characteristics. Reasoning mechanisms of conceptual graphs constitute the baseline elements to measure the fit or unfit between an equipment model and a maintenance activity model. Graph operations are used for processing answers to a query and this graph-based approach to the search method is in-line with the logical view of information retrieval. The methodology described supports knowledge formalization and capitalization of experienced NDT practitioners. As a result, it enables the selection of a NDT technique and outlines its capabilities with acceptable alternatives

The Maunakea Spectroscopic Explorer Book 2018

(Abridged) This is the Maunakea Spectroscopic Explorer 2018 book. It is intended as a concise reference guide to all aspects of the scientific and technical design of MSE, for the international astronomy and engineering communities, and related agencies. The current version is a status report of MSE's science goals and their practical implementation, following the System Conceptual Design Review, held in January 2018. MSE is a planned 10-m class, wide-field, optical and near-infrared facility, designed to enable transformative science, while filling a critical missing gap in the emerging international network of large-scale astronomical facilities. MSE is completely dedicated to multi-object spectroscopy of samples of between thousands and millions of astrophysical objects. It will lead the world in this arena, due to its unique design capabilities: it will boast a large (11.25 m) aperture and wide (1.52 sq. degree) field of view; it will have the capabilities to observe at a wide range of spectral resolutions, from R2500 to R40,000, with massive multiplexing (4332 spectra per exposure, with all spectral resolutions available at all times), and an on-target observing efficiency of more than 80%. MSE will unveil the composition and dynamics of the faint Universe and is designed to excel at precision studies of faint astrophysical phenomena. It will also provide critical follow-up for multi-wavelength imaging surveys, such as those of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, Gaia, Euclid, the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope, the Square Kilometre Array, and the Next Generation Very Large Array.Comment: 5 chapters, 160 pages, 107 figure

Health Care Savings from Personalizing Medicine Using Genetic Testing: The Case of Warfarin

Progress towards realizing a vision of personalized medicine - drugs and drug doses that are safer and more effective because they are chosen based on an individual's genetic makeup - has been slower than once forecast. The Food and Drug Administration has a key role to play in facilitating the use of genetic information in drug therapies because it approves labels, and labels influence how doctors use drugs. Here we evaluate one example of how using genetic information in drug therapy may improve public health and lower health care costs. Warfarin, an anticoagulant commonly used to prevent and control blood clots, is complicated to use because the optimal dose varies greatly among patients. If the dose is too strong the risk of serious bleeding increases and if the dose is too weak, the risk of stroke increases. We estimate the health benefits and the resulting savings in health care costs by using personalized warfarin dosing decisions based on appropriate genetic testing. We estimate that formally integrating genetic testing into routine warfarin therapy could allow American warfarin users to avoid 85,000 serious bleeding events and 17,000 strokes annually. We estimate the reduced health care spending from integrating genetic testing into warfarin therapy to be $1.1 billion annually, with a range of about$100 million to $2 billion.

The European bus system of the future: Research and innovation

The development of a new generation of bus systems was the goal of the European Bus System of the Future (EBSF) project, funded by the European Commission within the 7th Framework Program. To accomplish this, a series of very different innovative solutions for buses (such as new vehicle layouts, advanced remote maintenance systems, improved on-board communication systems, more performing bus stops and eco-efficient engines) were simultaneously tested in seven Use Cases (UCs) in Europe (Bremerhaven, Brunoy, Budapest, Gothenburg, Madrid, Rome and Rouen). All the tested measures had to increase the attractiveness and improve the image of the mode. The efficiency of all of them was assessed as well as their transferability to other European contexts. The paper describes the tested solutions and focuses on the assessment methodology, the main results achieved and the drivers and barriers for the transfer of such solutions across Europe

The public health risk posed by Listeria monocytogenes in frozen fruit and vegetables including herbs, blanched during processing

A multi-country outbreak ofListeria monocytogenesST6 linked to blanched frozen vegetables (bfV)took place in the EU (2015–2018). Evidence of food-borne outbreaks shows thatL. monocytogenesisthe most relevant pathogen associated with bfV. The probability of illness per serving of uncooked bfV,for the elderly (65–74 years old) population, is up to 3,600 times greater than cooked bfV and verylikely lower than any of the evaluated ready-to-eat food categories. The main factors affectingcontamination and growth ofL. monocytogenesin bfV during processing are the hygiene of the rawmaterials and process water; the hygienic conditions of the food processing environment (FPE); andthe time/Temperature (t/T) combinations used for storage and processing (e.g. blanching, cooling).Relevant factors after processing are the intrinsic characteristics of the bfV, the t/T combinations usedfor thawing and storage and subsequent cooking conditions, unless eaten uncooked. Analysis of thepossible control options suggests that application of a complete HACCP plan is either not possible orwould not further enhance food safety. Instead, specific prerequisite programmes (PRP) andoperational PRP activities should be applied such as cleaning and disinfection of the FPE, water control,t/T control and product information and consumer awareness. The occurrence of low levels ofL. monocytogenesat the end of the production process (e.g.<10 CFU/g) would be compatible with thelimit of 100 CFU/g at the moment of consumption if any labelling recommendations are strictly followed(i.e. 24 h at 5°C). Under reasonably foreseeable conditions of use (i.e. 48 h at 12°C),L. monocytogeneslevels need to be considerably lower (not detected in 25 g). Routine monitoring programmes forL. monocytogenesshould be designed following a risk-based approach and regularly revised based ontrend analysis, being FPE monitoring a key activity in the frozen vegetable industry

Sustainability based-approach to determine the concrete type and reinforcement configuration of TBM tunnels linings. Case study: Extension line to Barcelona Airport T1

Fibre-reinforced concrete (FRC) is a suitable alternative to the traditional reinforced concrete used in the manufacture of precast segments used to line tunnels excavated with a tunnel boring machine (TBM). Moreover, its use as a structural material has been approved by several national codes and by the current fib Model Code (2010). The use of FRC in segmental linings confers several technical and economic advantages, evidenced by the fact that structural fibres have been used to partially or entirely replace reinforcing bars in many TBM tunnels built over the past 20 years or currently under construction. FRC could also have been used in other tunnels, which are currently in the planning stage or under construction. However, despite its technical suitability and approval in current codes, the use of FRC was not possible in some cases. The impediment has sometimes been an incomplete understanding of the structural behaviour of the material, but a more general motive has been that comparisons of materials have taken into account only direct material costs and have not considered indirect costs or social and environmental factors. The aim of the present research is to develop a method for analysing the sustainability of different concrete and reinforcement configurations for segmental linings of TBM tunnels using the MIVES method (a multi-criteria decision making approach for assessing sustainability). This MCDM method allows minimising subjectivity in decision making while integrating economic, environmental and social factors. The model has been used to assess the sustainability of different alternatives proposed for manufacturing the segmental tunnel lining for the extension of the rail line of Ferrocarrils de la Generalitat de Catalunya (FGC) to Terminal 1 of El Prat Airport in Barcelona.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

An interprofessional, intercultural, immersive short-term study abroad program: public health and service systems in rome

The purpose of this paper is to describe a short-term study abroad program that exposes engineering and nursing undergraduate students from the United States and Italy to an intercultural and interprofessional immersion experience. Faculty from Purdue University and Sapienza Università di Roma collaborated to design a technical program that demonstrates the complementary nature of engineering and public health in the service sector, with Rome as an integral component of the program. Specifically, the intersection of topics including systems, reliability, process flow, maintenance management, and public health are covered through online lectures, in-class activities and case study discussions, field experiences, and assessments. Herein, administrative issues such as student recruitment, selection, and preparation are elucidated. Additionally, the pedagogical approach used to ensure constructive alignment among the program goals, the intended learning outcomes, and the teaching and learning activities is described. Finally, examples of learning outcomes resulting from this alignment are provided

Designing the Health-related Internet of Things: Ethical Principles and Guidelines

The conjunction of wireless computing, ubiquitous Internet access, and the miniaturisation of sensors have opened the door for technological applications that can monitor health and well-being outside of formal healthcare systems. The health-related Internet of Things (H-IoT) increasingly plays a key role in health management by providing real-time tele-monitoring of patients, testing of treatments, actuation of medical devices, and fitness and well-being monitoring. Given its numerous applications and proposed benefits, adoption by medical and social care institutions and consumers may be rapid. However, a host of ethical concerns are also raised that must be addressed. The inherent sensitivity of health-related data being generated and latent risks of Internet-enabled devices pose serious challenges. Users, already in a vulnerable position as patients, face a seemingly impossible task to retain control over their data due to the scale, scope and complexity of systems that create, aggregate, and analyse personal health data. In response, the H-IoT must be designed to be technologically robust and scientifically reliable, while also remaining ethically responsible, trustworthy, and respectful of user rights and interests. To assist developers of the H-IoT, this paper describes nine principles and nine guidelines for ethical design of H-IoT devices and data protocols