Computer-aided HAZOP of batch processes

The modern batch chemical processing plants have a tendency of increasing technological complexity and flexibility which make it difficult to control the occurrence of accidents. Social and legal pressures have increased the demands for verifying the safety of chemical plants during their design and operation. Complete identification and accurate assessment of the hazard potential in the early design stages is therefore very important so that preventative or protective measures can be integrated into future design without adversely affecting processing and control complexity or capital and operational costs. Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) is a method of systematically identifying every conceivable process deviation, its abnormal causes and adverse hazardous consequences in the chemical plants. [Continues.

Measurements, Models, Systems and Design

531 s.

Supporting group maintenance through prognostics-enhanced dynamic dependability prediction

Condition-based maintenance strategies adapt maintenance planning through the integration of online condition monitoring of assets. The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these strategies can be improved by integrating prognostics predictions and grouping maintenance actions respectively. In complex industrial systems, however, effective condition-based maintenance is intricate. Such systems are comprised of repairable assets which can fail in different ways, with various effects, and typically governed by dynamics which include time-dependent and conditional events. In this context, system reliability prediction is complex and effective maintenance planning is virtually impossible prior to system deployment and hard even in the case of condition-based maintenance. Addressing these issues, this paper presents an online system maintenance method that takes into account the system dynamics. The method employs an online predictive diagnosis algorithm to distinguish between critical and non-critical assets. A prognostics-updated method for predicting the system health is then employed to yield well-informed, more accurate, condition-based suggestions for the maintenance of critical assets and for the group-based reactive repair of non-critical assets. The cost-effectiveness of the approach is discussed in a case study from the power industry

Process Mining of Programmable Logic Controllers: Input/Output Event Logs

This paper presents an approach to model an unknown Ladder Logic based Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) program consisting of Boolean logic and counters using Process Mining techniques. First, we tap the inputs and outputs of a PLC to create a data flow log. Second, we propose a method to translate the obtained data flow log to an event log suitable for Process Mining. In a third step, we propose a hybrid Petri net (PN) and neural network approach to approximate the logic of the actual underlying PLC program. We demonstrate the applicability of our proposed approach on a case study with three simulated scenarios

Reliability assessment of manufacturing systems: A comprehensive overview, challenges and opportunities

Reliability assessment refers to the process of evaluating reliability of components or systems during their lifespan or prior to their implementation. In the manufacturing industry, the reliability of systems is directly linked to production efficiency, product quality, energy consumption, and other crucial performance indicators. Therefore, reliability plays a critical role in every aspect of manufacturing. In this review, we provide a comprehensive overview of the most significant advancements and trends in the assessment of manufacturing system reliability. For this, we also consider the three main facets of reliability analysis of cyber–physical systems, i.e., hardware, software, and human-related reliability. Beyond the overview of literature, we derive challenges and opportunities for reliability assessment of manufacturing systems based on the reviewed literature. Identified challenges encompass aspects like failure data availability and quality, fast-paced technological advancements, and the increasing complexity of manufacturing systems. In turn, the opportunities include the potential for integrating various assessment methods, and leveraging data to automate the assessment process and to increase accuracy of derived reliability models

Applications of Bayesian networks and Petri nets in safety, reliability, and risk assessments: A review

YesSystem safety, reliability and risk analysis are important tasks that are performed throughout the system lifecycle to ensure the dependability of safety-critical systems. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approaches are comprehensive, structured and logical methods widely used for this purpose. PRA approaches include, but not limited to, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Event Tree Analysis (ETA). Growing complexity of modern systems and their capability of behaving dynamically make it challenging for classical PRA techniques to analyse such systems accurately. For a comprehensive and accurate analysis of complex systems, different characteristics such as functional dependencies among components, temporal behaviour of systems, multiple failure modes/states for components/systems, and uncertainty in system behaviour and failure data are needed to be considered. Unfortunately, classical approaches are not capable of accounting for these aspects. Bayesian networks (BNs) have gained popularity in risk assessment applications due to their flexible structure and capability of incorporating most of the above mentioned aspects during analysis. Furthermore, BNs have the ability to perform diagnostic analysis. Petri Nets are another formal graphical and mathematical tool capable of modelling and analysing dynamic behaviour of systems. They are also increasingly used for system safety, reliability and risk evaluation. This paper presents a review of the applications of Bayesian networks and Petri nets in system safety, reliability and risk assessments. The review highlights the potential usefulness of the BN and PN based approaches over other classical approaches, and relative strengths and weaknesses in different practical application scenarios.This work was funded by the DEIS H2020 project (Grant Agreement 732242)

Methodology for the Accelerated Reliability Analysis and Prognosis of Underground Cables based on FPGA

Dependable electrical power distribution systems demand high reliability levels that cause increased maintenance costs to the utilities. Often, the extra costs are the result of unnecessary maintenance procedures, which can be avoided by monitoring the equipment and predicting the future system evolution by means of statistical methods (prognostics). The present thesis aims at designing accurate methods for predicting the degradation of high and medium voltage underground Cross-Linked Polyethylene (XLPE) cables within an electrical power distribution grid, and predicting their remaining useful life, in order inform maintenance procedures. However, electric power distribution grids are large, components interact with each other, and they degrade with time and use. Solving the statistics of the predictive models of the power grids currently requires long numerical simulations that demand large computational resources and long simulation times even when using advanced parallel architectures. Often, approximate models are used in order to reduce the simulation time and the required resources. In this context, Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) can be employed to accelerate the simulation of these stochastic processes. However, the adaptation of the physicsbased degradation models of underground cables for FPGA simulation can be complex. Accordingly, this thesis proposes an FPGA-based framework for the on-line monitoring and prognosis of underground cables based on an electro-thermal degradation model that is adapted for its accelerated simulation in the programmable logic of an FPGA.Energia elektrikoaren banaketa-sare konfidagarriek fidagarritasun maila altuak eskatzen dituzte, eta honek beraien mantenketa kostuen igoera dakar. Kostu hauen arrazoia beraien bizitzan goizegi egiten diren mantenketa prozesuei dagokie askotan, eta hauek eragoztea posible da, ekipamenduaren monitorizazioa eginez eta sistemaren etorkizuneko eboluzioa aurrez estimatuz (prognosia). Tesi honen helburua lurpeko tentsio altu eta ertaineko Cross-Linked Polyethylene (XLPE) kable sistemen eboluzioa eta geratzen zaien bizitza aurreikusiko duten metodo egokiak definitzea izango da, banaketa-sare elektriko baten barruan, ondoren mantenketa prozesu optimo bat ahalbidetuko duena. Hala ere, sistema hauek oso jokaera dinamikoa daukate. Konponente ezberdinek beraien artean elkar eragiten dute eta degradatu egiten dira denboran eta erabileraren ondorioz. Estatistika hauen soluzio analitikoa lortzea ezinezkoa da gaur egun, eta errekurtso asko eskatzen dituen simulazio luzeak behar ditu zenbakizko erantzun bat lortzeko, arkitektura paralelo aurreratuak erabili arren. Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA)k prozesu estokastiko hauen simulazioa azkartzeko erabil daitezke, baina lurpeko kableen degradazio prozesuen modelo fisikoak FPGA exekuziorako egokitzea konplexua izan daiteke. Beraz, tesi honek FPGA baten logika programagarrian azeleratu ahal izateko egokitua izan den degradazio elektrotermiko modelo baten oinarritutako monitorizazio eta prognosi metodologia bat proposatzen du.Las redes de distribución de energía eléctrica confiables requieren de altos niveles de fiabilidad, que causan un mayor coste de mantenimiento a las empresas distribuidoras. Frecuentemente los costes adicionales son el resultado de procedimientos de mantenimiento innecesarios, que se pueden evitar por medio de la monitorización de los equipos y la predicción de la evolución futura del sistema, por medio de métodos estadísticos (prognosis). La presente tesis pretende desarrollar métodos adecuados para la predicción de la degradación futura de cables de alta y media tensión Cross-Linked Polyethylene (XLPE) soterrados, dentro de una red de distribución eléctrica, y predecir su tiempo de vida restante, para definir una secuencia de mantenimiento óptima. Sin embargo, las redes de distribución eléctrica son grandes, y compuestas por componentes que interactúan entre sí y se degradan con el tiempo y el uso. En la actualidad, resolver estas estadísticas predictivas requieren grandes simulaciones numéricas que requieren de grandes recursos computacionales y largos tiempos de simulación, incluso utilizando arquitecturas paralelas avanzadas. Las Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) pueden ser utilizadas para acelerar las simulaciones de estos procesos estocásticos, pero la adaptación de los modelos físicos de degradación de cables soterrados para su simulación en una FPGA puede ser complejo. Así, esta tesis propone el desarrollo de una metodología de monitorización y prognosis cables soterrados, basado en un modelo de degradación electro-térmico que está adaptado para su simulación acelerada en la lógica programable de una FPGA

Sequence-Oriented Diagnosis of Discrete-Event Systems

Model-based diagnosis has always been conceived as set-oriented, meaning that a candidate is a set of faults, or faulty components, that explains a collection of observations. This perspective applies equally to both static and dynamical systems. Diagnosis of discrete-event systems (DESs) is no exception: a candidate is traditionally a set of faults, or faulty events, occurring in a trajectory of the DES that conforms with a given sequence of observations. As such, a candidate does not embed any temporal relationship among faults, nor does it account for multiple occurrences of the same fault. To improve diagnostic explanation and support decision making, a sequence-oriented perspective to diagnosis of DESs is presented, where a candidate is a sequence of faults occurring in a trajectory of the DES, called a fault sequence. Since a fault sequence is possibly unbounded, as the same fault may occur an unlimited number of times in the trajectory, the set of (output) candidates may be unbounded also, which contrasts with set-oriented diagnosis, where the set of candidates is bounded by the powerset of the domain of faults. Still, a possibly unbounded set of fault sequences is shown to be a regular language, which can be defined by a regular expression over the domain of faults, a property that makes sequence-oriented diagnosis feasible in practice. The task of monitoring-based diagnosis is considered, where a new candidate set is generated at the occurrence of each observation. The approach is based on three different techniques: (1) blind diagnosis, with no compiled knowledge, (2) greedy diagnosis, with total knowledge compilation, and (3) lazy diagnosis, with partial knowledge compilation. By knowledge we mean a data structure slightly similar to a classical DES diagnoser, which can be generated (compiled) either entirely offline (greedy diagnosis) or incrementally online (lazy diagnosis). Experimental evidence suggests that, among these techniques, only lazy diagnosis may be viable in non-trivial application domains

Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis: State-of-the-Art in Modeling, Analysis, and Tools

YesSafety and reliability are two important aspects of dependability that are needed to be rigorously evaluated throughout the development life-cycle of a system. Over the years, several methodologies have been developed for the analysis of failure behavior of systems. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is one of the well-established and widely used methods for safety and reliability engineering of systems. Fault tree, in its classical static form, is inadequate for modeling dynamic interactions between components and is unable to include temporal and statistical dependencies in the model. Several attempts have been made to alleviate the aforementioned limitations of static fault trees (SFT). Dynamic fault trees (DFT) were introduced to enhance the modeling power of its static counterpart. In DFT, the expressiveness of fault tree was improved by introducing new dynamic gates. While the introduction of the dynamic gates helps to overcome many limitations of SFT and allows to analyze a wide range of complex systems, it brings some overhead with it. One such overhead is that the existing combinatorial approaches used for qualitative and quantitative analysis of SFTs are no longer applicable to DFTs. This leads to several successful attempts for developing new approaches for DFT analysis. The methodologies used so far for DFT analysis include, but not limited to, algebraic solution, Markov models, Petri Nets, Bayesian Networks, and Monte Carlo simulation. To illustrate the usefulness of modeling capability of DFTs, many benchmark studies have been performed in different industries. Moreover, software tools are developed to aid in the DFT analysis process. Firstly, in this chapter, we provided a brief description of the DFT methodology. Secondly, this chapter reviews a number of prominent DFT analysis techniques such as Markov chains, Petri Nets, Bayesian networks, algebraic approach; and provides insight into their working mechanism, applicability, strengths, and challenges. These reviewed techniques covered both qualitative and quantitative analysis of DFTs. Thirdly, we discussed the emerging trends in machine learning based approaches to DFT analysis. Fourthly, the research performed for sensitivity analysis in DFTs has been reviewed. Finally, we provided some potential future research directions for DFT-based safety and reliability analysis