Using Performance Forecasting to Accelerate Elasticity

Cloud computing facilitates dynamic resource provisioning. The automation of resource management, known as elasticity, has been subject to much research. In this context, monitoring of a running service plays a crucial role, and adjustments are made when certain thresholds are crossed. On such occasions, it is common practice to simply add or remove resources. In this paper we investigate how we can predict the performance of a service to dynamically adjust allocated resources based on predictions. In other words, instead of “repairing” because a threshold has been crossed, we attempt to stay ahead and allocate an optimized amount of resources in advance. To do so, we need to have accurate predictive models that are based on workloads. We present our approach, based on the Universal Scalability Law, and discuss initial experiments

Testing of Concrete Abrasion Resistance in Hydraulic Structures on the Lower Sava River

The paper deals with the issues of resistance of concrete linings to long-term abrasion loading caused by waterborne particles, particularly for the proposed hydro power plants on the Sava River in Slovenia. The main purpose of the research work was to define the possibility of forecasting the process of concrete lining wear on the Sava River dam structures based on the standard procedures of abrasion resistance testing. Abrasion resistance of concrete has been researched in accordance with the standard ASTM C 1138 and Böhme (DIN 52108) methods. The research work was based on a comparison between laboratory results and measurements of abrasion resistance of concrete under natural conditions by performing test plots in the stilling basin of the Vrhovo HPP. Concrete composites with different mechanical properties have been analysed within the research programme. The analysis showed a qualitative similarity of the level of concrete abrasion between laboratory simulations and measurements in the field, as well as suitability of the ASTM C 1138 laboratory method for the assessment of\ud abrasion resistance of concretes in the spillway of the HPP chain on the Lower Sava River

Money Demand and the Role of Monetary Indicators in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

This paper examines the forecasting performance of a broad monetary aggregate (M3) in predicting euro area inflation. Excess liquidity is measured as the difference between the actual money stock and its fundamental value, the latter determined by a money demand function. The out-of sample forecasting performance is compared to widely used alternatives, such as the term structure of interest rates. The results indicate that the evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand even in the period of the financial and economic crisis. Monetary indicators are useful to predict inflation at the longer horizons, especially if the forecasting equations are based on measures of excess liquidity. Due to the stable link between money and inflation, central banks should implement exit strategies from the current policy path, as soon as the financial conditions are expected to return to normality.Money demand, excess liquidity, money and inflation

The People\u27s Republic of China\u27s Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints

We estimate the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) potential growth rate in 2012 at 8.7% and at 9.2% for the average of 2008–2012, about the same as the average actual growth rate for this period. This rate is the natural growth rate, that is, the rate consistent with a constant unemployment rate and stable inflation. The PRC’s natural growth rate displays a downward trend since 2006, when it peaked at 11.1%. Probably the Great Recession has been an important factor, although we argue that there are other factors. We show that the PRC’s potential growth rate is not demand constrained, in particular by the balance of payments. The PRC’s potential growth rate is determined by the supply side of the economy, in particular by: (i) changes in the structure of the economy, in particular in the share of industrial employment; (ii) the working-age population; (iii) the share of net exports in gross domestic product (GDP); (iv) export growth; (v) the share of foreign direct investment (FDI) in GDP; and (vi) human capital accumulation

Intertemporal Asset Pricing Without Consumption Data

This paper proposes a new way to generalize the insights of static asset pricing theory to a multi-period setting. The paper uses a loglinear approximation to the budget constraint to substitute out consumption from a standard intertemporal asset pricing model. In a homoskedastic lognormal selling, the consumption-wealth ratio is shown to depend on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption, while asset risk premia are determined by the coefficient of relative risk aversion. Risk premia are related to the covariances of asset returns with the market return and with news about the discounted value of all future market returns.

Does global liquidity matter for monetary policy in the Euro area?

Global excess liquidity roaming the world’s financial markets (or its sudden absence) is sometimes believed to limit sovereign monetary policy even in large economies such as the euro area. However, there is still discussion about what constitutes global excess liquidity and how exactly it shapes the policy environment. Our approach adjusts liquidity for longerterm interest rate and output effects and focuses on U.S. and Japanese liquidity as relevant proxies for global developments from a euro area perspective. We find that both excess liquidity in Japan and, in particular, the U.S. tend to lead developments in euro area liquidity. U.S. excess liquidity also enters consistently positive as a determinant of euro area inflation and is shown to be Granger-causal for euro area inflation in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. In part, this result seems to be related to a weakening of the euro area interest rate channel during times of excessive U.S. liquidity. In contrast, the influence of Japanese and euro area excess liquidity on euro area inflation is more limited. --Global excess liquidity,euro area,inflation,monetary policy,interest rate channel,forecasting accuracy.

Models in the Cloud: Exploring Next Generation Environmental Software Systems

There is growing interest in the application of the latest trends in computing and data science methods to improve environmental science. However we found the penetration of best practice from computing domains such as software engineering and cloud computing into supporting every day environmental science to be poor. We take from this work a real need to re-evaluate the complexity of software tools and bring these to the right level of abstraction for environmental scientists to be able to leverage the latest developments in computing. In the Models in the Cloud project, we look at the role of model driven engineering, software frameworks and cloud computing in achieving this abstraction. As a case study we deployed a complex weather model to the cloud and developed a collaborative notebook interface for orchestrating the deployment and analysis of results. We navigate relatively poor support for complex high performance computing in the cloud to develop abstractions from complexity in cloud deployment and model configuration. We found great potential in cloud computing to transform science by enabling models to leverage elastic, flexible computing infrastructure and support new ways to deliver collaborative and open science

A Comparative Analysis of the Efficiency of Romanian Banks

In this paper, we analyze the efficiency of the main banks in Romania, the Czech Republic and Hungary for the period 2000-2006, by using the frontier analysis. For the estimation of efficiency of banking we used a nonparametric method – the DEA Method (Data Envelopment Analysis) and a parametric method - the SFA Method (Stochastic Frontier Analysis). The results of the analyses show that the banks in the three East-European countries reach low levels of technical efficiency and cost efficiency, especially the ones in Romania, and that the main factors influencing the level of banks efficiency in these countries are: quality of assets; bank size, annual inflation rate; banking reform and interest rate liberalisation level and form of ownership.efficiency, banking, DEA method, SFA method