21,781 research outputs found
Learning Hybrid Process Models From Events: Process Discovery Without Faking Confidence
Process discovery techniques return process models that are either formal
(precisely describing the possible behaviors) or informal (merely a "picture"
not allowing for any form of formal reasoning). Formal models are able to
classify traces (i.e., sequences of events) as fitting or non-fitting. Most
process mining approaches described in the literature produce such models. This
is in stark contrast with the over 25 available commercial process mining tools
that only discover informal process models that remain deliberately vague on
the precise set of possible traces. There are two main reasons why vendors
resort to such models: scalability and simplicity. In this paper, we propose to
combine the best of both worlds: discovering hybrid process models that have
formal and informal elements. As a proof of concept we present a discovery
technique based on hybrid Petri nets. These models allow for formal reasoning,
but also reveal information that cannot be captured in mainstream formal
models. A novel discovery algorithm returning hybrid Petri nets has been
implemented in ProM and has been applied to several real-life event logs. The
results clearly demonstrate the advantages of remaining "vague" when there is
not enough "evidence" in the data or standard modeling constructs do not "fit".
Moreover, the approach is scalable enough to be incorporated in
industrial-strength process mining tools.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figure
Learning why things change: The Difference-Based Causality Learner
In this paper, we present the Difference-Based Causality Learner (DBCL), an algorithm for learning a class of discrete-time dynamic models that represents all causation across time by means of difference equations driving change in a system. We motivate this representation with real-world mechanical systems and prove DBCL's correctness for learning structure from time series data, an endeavour that is complicated by the existence of latent derivatives that have to be detected. We also prove that, under common assumptions for causal discovery, DBCL will identify the presence or absence of feedback loops, making the model more useful for predicting the effects of manipulating variables when the system is in equilibrium. We argue analytically and show empirically the advantages of DBCL over vector autoregression (VAR) and Granger causality models as well as modified forms of Bayesian and constraintbased structure discovery algorithms. Finally, we show that our algorithm can discover causal directions of alpha rhythms in human brains from EEG data
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