Building Credit-Risk Evaluation Expert Systems Using Neural Network Rule Extraction and Decision Tables.

In this paper, we evaluate and contrast four neural network rule extraction approaches for credit scoring. Experiments are carried out on three real life credit scoring data sets. Both the continuous and the discretised versions of all data sets are analysed. The rule extraction algorithms, Neurolinear, Neurorule, Trepan and Nefclass, have different characteristics with respect to their perception of the neural network and their way of representing the generated rules or knowledge. It is shown that Neurolinear, Neurorule and Trepan are able to extract very concise rule sets or trees with a high predictive accuracy when compared to classical decision tree (rule) induction algorithms like C4.5(rules). Especially Neurorule extracted easy to understand and powerful propositional ifthen rules for all discretised data sets. Hence, the Neurorule algorithm may offer a viable alternative for rule generation and knowledge discovery in the domain of credit scoring.Credit; Information systems; International; Systems;

Decision diagrams in machine learning: an empirical study on real-life credit-risk data.

Decision trees are a widely used knowledge representation in machine learning. However, one of their main drawbacks is the inherent replication of isomorphic subtrees, as a result of which the produced classifiers might become too large to be comprehensible by the human experts that have to validate them. Alternatively, decision diagrams, a generalization of decision trees taking on the form of a rooted, acyclic digraph instead of a tree, have occasionally been suggested as a potentially more compact representation. Their application in machine learning has nonetheless been criticized, because the theoretical size advantages of subgraph sharing did not always directly materialize in the relatively scarce reported experiments on real-world data. Therefore, in this paper, starting from a series of rule sets extracted from three real-life credit-scoring data sets, we will empirically assess to what extent decision diagrams are able to provide a compact visual description. Furthermore, we will investigate the practical impact of finding a good attribute ordering on the achieved size savings.Advantages; Classifiers; Credit scoring; Data; Decision; Decision diagrams; Decision trees; Empirical study; Knowledge; Learning; Real life; Representation; Size; Studies;

An Overview of the Use of Neural Networks for Data Mining Tasks

In the recent years the area of data mining has experienced a considerable demand for technologies that extract knowledge from large and complex data sources. There is a substantial commercial interest as well as research investigations in the area that aim to develop new and improved approaches for extracting information, relationships, and patterns from datasets. Artificial Neural Networks (NN) are popular biologically inspired intelligent methodologies, whose classification, prediction and pattern recognition capabilities have been utilised successfully in many areas, including science, engineering, medicine, business, banking, telecommunication, and many other fields. This paper highlights from a data mining perspective the implementation of NN, using supervised and unsupervised learning, for pattern recognition, classification, prediction and cluster analysis, and focuses the discussion on their usage in bioinformatics and financial data analysis tasks

Comprehensible credit scoring models using rule extraction from support vector machines.

In recent years, Support Vector Machines (SVMs) were successfully applied to a wide range of applications. Their good performance is achieved by an implicit non-linear transformation of the original problem to a high-dimensional (possibly infinite) feature space in which a linear decision hyperplane is constructed that yields a nonlinear classifier in the input space. However, since the classifier is described as a complex mathematical function, it is rather incomprehensible for humans. This opacity property prevents them from being used in many real- life applications where both accuracy and comprehensibility are required, such as medical diagnosis and credit risk evaluation. To overcome this limitation, rules can be extracted from the trained SVM that are interpretable by humans and keep as much of the accuracy of the SVM as possible. In this paper, we will provide an overview of the recently proposed rule extraction techniques for SVMs and introduce two others taken from the artificial neural networks domain, being Trepan and G-REX. The described techniques are compared using publicly avail- able datasets, such as Ripley's synthetic dataset and the multi-class iris dataset. We will also look at medical diagnosis and credit scoring where comprehensibility is a key requirement and even a regulatory recommendation. Our experiments show that the SVM rule extraction techniques lose only a small percentage in performance compared to SVMs and therefore rank at the top of comprehensible classification techniques.Credit; Credit scoring; Models; Model; Applications; Performance; Space; Decision; Yield; Real life; Risk; Evaluation; Rules; Neural networks; Networks; Classification; Research;

Consumer finance: challenges for operational research

Consumer finance has become one of the most important areas of banking, both because of the amount of money being lent and the impact of such credit on global economy and the realisation that the credit crunch of 2008 was partly due to incorrect modelling of the risks in such lending. This paper reviews the development of credit scoring—the way of assessing risk in consumer finance—and what is meant by a credit score. It then outlines 10 challenges for Operational Research to support modelling in consumer finance. Some of these involve developing more robust risk assessment systems, whereas others are to expand the use of such modelling to deal with the current objectives of lenders and the new decisions they have to make in consumer finance. <br/

Operations research in consumer finance: challenges for operational research

Consumer finance has become one of the most important areas of banking both because of the amount of money being lent and the impact of such credit on the global economy and the realisation that the credit crunch of 2008 was partly due to incorrect modelling of the risks in such lending. This paper reviews the development of credit scoring,-the way of assessing risk in consumer finance- and what is meant by a credit score. It then outlines ten challenges for Operational Research to support modelling in consumer finance. Some of these are to developing more robust risk assessment systems while others are to expand the use of such modelling to deal with the current objectives of lenders and the new decisions they have to make in consumer financ