Association Rules in Data Mining: An Application on a Clothing and Accessory Specialty Store

Retailers provide important functions that increase the value of the products and services they sell to consumers. Retailers value creating functions are providing assortment of products and services: breaking bulk, holding inventory, and providing services. For a long time, retail store managers have been interested in learning about within and cross-category purchase behavior of their customers, since valuable insights for designing marketing and/or targeted cross-selling programs can be derived. Especially, parallel to the development of information processing and communication technologies, it has become possible to transfer customers shopping information into databases with the help of barcode technology. Data mining is the technique presenting significant and useful information using of lots of data. Association rule mining is realized by using market basket analysis to discover relationships among items purchased by customers in transaction databases. In this study, association rules were estimated by using market basket analysis and taking support, confidence and lift measures into consideration. In the process of analysis, by using of data belonging to the year of 2012 from a clothing and accessory specialty store operating in the province of Osmaniye, a set of data related to 42.390 sales transactions including 9.000 different product kinds in 35 different product categories (SKU) were used. Analyses were carried out with the help of SPSS Clementine packet program and hence 25.470 rules were determined

To boardrooms and sustainability: the changing nature of segmentation

Market segmentation is the process by which customers in markets with some heterogeneity are grouped into smaller homogeneous segments of more ‘similar’ customers. A market segment is a group of individuals, groups or organisations sharing similar characteristics and buying behaviour that cause them to have relatively similar needs and purchasing behaviour. Segmentation is not a new concept: for six decades marketers have, in various guises, sought to break-down a market into sub-groups of users, each sharing common needs, buying behavior and marketing requirements. However, this approach to target market strategy development has been rejuvenated in the past few years. Various reasons account for this upsurge in the usage of segmentation, examination of which forms the focus of this white paper. Ready access to data enables faster creation of a segmentation and the testing of propositions to take to market. ‘Big data’ has made the re-thinking of target market segments and value propositions inevitable, desirable, faster and more flexible. The resulting information has presented companies with more topical and consumer-generated insights than ever before. However, many marketers, analytics directors and leadership teams feel over-whelmed by the sheer quantity and immediacy of such data. Analytical prowess in consultants and inside client organisations has benefited from a stepchange, using new heuristics and faster computing power, more topical data and stronger market insights. The approach to segmentation today is much smarter and has stretched well away from the days of limited data explored only with cluster analysis. The coverage and wealth of the solutions are unimaginable when compared to the practices of a few years ago. Then, typically between only six to ten segments were forced into segmentation solutions, so that an organisation could cater for these macro segments operationally as well as understand them intellectually. Now there is the advent of what is commonly recognised as micro segmentation, where the complexity of business operations and customer management requires highly granular thinking. In support of this development, traditional agency/consultancy roles have transitioned into in-house business teams led by data, campaign and business change planners. The challenge has shifted from developing a granular segmentation solution that describes all customers and prospects, into one of enabling an organisation to react to the granularity of the solution, deploying its resources to permit controlled and consistent one-to-one interaction within segments. So whilst the cost of delivering and maintaining the solution has reduced with technology advances, a new set of systems, costs and skills in channel and execution management is required to deliver on this promise. These new capabilities range from rich feature creative and content management solutions, tailored copy design and deployment tools, through to instant messaging middleware solutions that initiate multi-streams of activity in a variety of analytical engines and operational systems. Companies have recruited analytics and insight teams, often headed by senior personnel, such as an Insight Manager or Analytics Director. Indeed, the situations-vacant adverts for such personnel out-weigh posts for brand and marketing managers. Far more companies possess the in-house expertise necessary to help with segmentation analysis. Some organisations are also seeking to monetise one of the most regularly under-used latent business assets… data. Developing the capability and culture to bring data together from all corners of a business, the open market, commercial sources and business partners, is a step-change, often requiring a Chief Data Officer. This emerging role has also driven the professionalism of data exploration, using more varied and sophisticated statistical techniques. CEOs, CFOs and COOs increasingly are the sponsor of segmentation projects as well as the users of the resulting outputs, rather than CMOs. CEOs because recession has forced re-engineering of value propositions and the need to look after core customers; CFOs because segmentation leads to better and more prudent allocation of resources – especially NPD and marketing – around the most important sub-sets of a market; COOs because they need to better look after key customers and improve their satisfaction in service delivery. More and more it is recognised that with a new segmentation comes organisational realignment and change, so most business functions now have an interest in a segmentation project, not only the marketers. Largely as a result of the digital era and the growth of analytics, directors and company leadership teams are becoming used to receiving more extensive market intelligence and quickly updated customer insight, so leading to faster responses to market changes, customer issues, competitor moves and their own performance. This refreshing of insight and a leadership team’s reaction to this intelligence often result in there being more frequent modification of a target market strategy and segmentation decisions. So many projects set up to consider multi-channel strategy and offerings; digital marketing; customer relationship management; brand strategies; new product and service development; the re-thinking of value propositions, and so forth, now routinely commence with a segmentation piece in order to frame the ongoing work. Most organisations have deployed CRM systems and harnessed associated customer data. CRM first requires clarity in segment priorities. The insights from a CRM system help inform the segmentation agenda and steer how they engage with their important customers or prospects. The growth of CRM and its ensuing data have assisted the ongoing deployment of segmentation. One of the biggest changes for segmentation is the extent to which it is now deployed by practitioners in the public and not-for-profit sectors, who are harnessing what is termed social marketing, in order to develop and to execute more shrewdly their targeting, campaigns and messaging. For Marketing per se, the interest in the marketing toolkit from non-profit organisations, has been big news in recent years. At the very heart of the concept of social marketing is the market segmentation process. The extreme rise in the threat to security from global unrest, terrorism and crime has focused the minds of governments, security chiefs and their advisors. As a result, significant resources, intellectual capability, computing and data management have been brought to bear on the problem. The core of this work is the importance of identifying and profiling threats and so mitigating risk. In practice, much of this security and surveillance work harnesses the tools developed for market segmentation and the profiling of different consumer behaviours. This white paper presents the findings from interviews with leading exponents of segmentation and also the insights from a recent study of marketing practitioners relating to their current imperatives and foci. More extensive views of some of these ‘leading lights’ have been sought and are included here in order to showcase the latest developments and to help explain both the ongoing surge of segmentation and the issues under-pinning its practice. The principal trends and developments are thereby presented and discussed in this paper

Fuzzy Modeling of Client Preference in Data-Rich Marketing Environments

Advances in computational methods have led, in the world of financial services, to huge databases of client and market information. In the past decade, various computational intelligence (CI) techniques have been applied in mining this data for obtaining knowledge and in-depth information about the clients and the markets. This paper discusses the application of fuzzy clustering in target selection from large databases for direct marketing (DM) purposes. Actual data from the campaigns of a large financial services provider are used as a test case. The results obtained with the fuzzy clustering approach are compared with those resulting from the current practice of using statistical tools for target selection.fuzzy clustering;direct marketing;client segmentation;fuzzy systems

Customer purchase behavior prediction in E-commerce: a conceptual framework and research agenda

Digital retailers are experiencing an increasing number of transactions coming from their consumers online, a consequence of the convenience in buying goods via E-commerce platforms. Such interactions compose complex behavioral patterns which can be analyzed through predictive analytics to enable businesses to understand consumer needs. In this abundance of big data and possible tools to analyze them, a systematic review of the literature is missing. Therefore, this paper presents a systematic literature review of recent research dealing with customer purchase prediction in the E-commerce context. The main contributions are a novel analytical framework and a research agenda in the field. The framework reveals three main tasks in this review, namely, the prediction of customer intents, buying sessions, and purchase decisions. Those are followed by their employed predictive methodologies and are analyzed from three perspectives. Finally, the research agenda provides major existing issues for further research in the field of purchase behavior prediction online

eEnabled internet distribution for small and medium sized hotels: the case of hospitality SMEs in Athens

Advances in information and communications technologies (ICTs) have strategic implications for a wide range of industries. Tourism and hospitality have dramatically changed by the ICTs and the Internet and gradually emerge as the leading industry on online expenditure. The Internet revolutionised traditional distribution models, enabled new entries propelled both disintermediation and reintermediation and altered the sources of competitive advantage. This paper explores the strategic implications of ICTs and the perceived advantages and disadvantages of Internet distribution for small and medium-sized hospitality enterprises (SMEs). Primary research in Athens hotels demonstrates the effects of the Internet and ICTs for secondary markets, where there is lower penetration and ICT adoption. Interviews and questionnaires identified a number of strategies in order to optimise distribution. The analysis illustrates the strategic role of ICTs and the Internet for hospitality organisations and Small and Medium-sized organisations in general. Most hotels employ a distribution mix that determines the level and employment of the Internet. The paper demonstrates that only organisations that use ICTs strategically will be able to develop their electronic distribution and achieve competitive advantages in the future

Off-Policy Evaluation of Probabilistic Identity Data in Lookalike Modeling

We evaluate the impact of probabilistically-constructed digital identity data collected from Sep. to Dec. 2017 (approx.), in the context of Lookalike-targeted campaigns. The backbone of this study is a large set of probabilistically-constructed "identities", represented as small bags of cookies and mobile ad identifiers with associated metadata, that are likely all owned by the same underlying user. The identity data allows to generate "identity-based", rather than "identifier-based", user models, giving a fuller picture of the interests of the users underlying the identifiers. We employ off-policy techniques to evaluate the potential of identity-powered lookalike models without incurring the risk of allowing untested models to direct large amounts of ad spend or the large cost of performing A/B tests. We add to historical work on off-policy evaluation by noting a significant type of "finite-sample bias" that occurs for studies combining modestly-sized datasets and evaluation metrics involving rare events (e.g., conversions). We illustrate this bias using a simulation study that later informs the handling of inverse propensity weights in our analyses on real data. We demonstrate significant lift in identity-powered lookalikes versus an identity-ignorant baseline: on average ~70% lift in conversion rate. This rises to factors of ~(4-32)x for identifiers having little data themselves, but that can be inferred to belong to users with substantial data to aggregate across identifiers. This implies that identity-powered user modeling is especially important in the context of identifiers having very short lifespans (i.e., frequently churned cookies). Our work motivates and informs the use of probabilistically-constructed identities in marketing. It also deepens the canon of examples in which off-policy learning has been employed to evaluate the complex systems of the internet economy.Comment: Accepted by WSDM 201

Pioneers of Influence Propagation in Social Networks

With the growing importance of corporate viral marketing campaigns on online social networks, the interest in studies of influence propagation through networks is higher than ever. In a viral marketing campaign, a firm initially targets a small set of pioneers and hopes that they would influence a sizeable fraction of the population by diffusion of influence through the network. In general, any marketing campaign might fail to go viral in the first try. As such, it would be useful to have some guide to evaluate the effectiveness of the campaign and judge whether it is worthy of further resources, and in case the campaign has potential, how to hit upon a good pioneer who can make the campaign go viral. In this paper, we present a diffusion model developed by enriching the generalized random graph (a.k.a. configuration model) to provide insight into these questions. We offer the intuition behind the results on this model, rigorously proved in Blaszczyszyn & Gaurav(2013), and illustrate them here by taking examples of random networks having prototypical degree distributions - Poisson degree distribution, which is commonly used as a kind of benchmark, and Power Law degree distribution, which is normally used to approximate the real-world networks. On these networks, the members are assumed to have varying attitudes towards propagating the information. We analyze three cases, in particular - (1) Bernoulli transmissions, when a member influences each of its friend with probability p; (2) Node percolation, when a member influences all its friends with probability p and none with probability 1-p; (3) Coupon-collector transmissions, when a member randomly selects one of his friends K times with replacement. We assume that the configuration model is the closest approximation of a large online social network, when the information available about the network is very limited. The key insight offered by this study from a firm's perspective is regarding how to evaluate the effectiveness of a marketing campaign and do cost-benefit analysis by collecting relevant statistical data from the pioneers it selects. The campaign evaluation criterion is informed by the observation that if the parameters of the underlying network and the campaign effectiveness are such that the campaign can indeed reach a significant fraction of the population, then the set of good pioneers also forms a significant fraction of the population. Therefore, in such a case, the firms can even adopt the naive strategy of repeatedly picking and targeting some number of pioneers at random from the population. With this strategy, the probability of them picking a good pioneer will increase geometrically fast with the number of tries