Environmentally Extended Input–Output Analysis of the UK Economy: Key Sector Analysis

The paper assesses the sustainability of investment in various economic sectors, with the aim of minimizing resource use and generation of emissions. The broad development focus of the paper and the potential for the proposed methodology to be applied in many different countries make it a useful methodological contribution to the global sustainability debate. The UK case is taken for illustration purposes, and (given the availability of the necessary data) this methodology could be applied in countries with various economic structures and specialisations. An environmentally extended static 123-sector UK input–output model is used, linking a range of physical flows (domestic extraction, use of water, and emissions of CO2, CH4, NOx) with the economic structure of the UK. A range of environmentally adjusted forward and backward linkage coefficients has been developed, adjusted according to final demand, domestic extraction, publicly supplied and directly abstracted water, amd emissions of CO2 and NOx,. The data on the final demandadjusted and environmentally adjusted forward and backward linkage coefficients were used in a multi-criteria decision-aid assessment, employing a NAIADE method in three different sustainability settings. The assessment was constructed in such a way that each sector of the UK economy was assessed by means of a panel of sustainability criteria, maximizing economic effects and minimizing environmental effects. This type of multi-criteria analysis, applied here for the first time, could prove to be a valuable basis for similar studies, especially in the developing world, where trade-offs between economic development and environmental protection have been the subject of considerable debate.input–output analysis; environmentally extended; MCDA; key sectors; sustainability; ecological economics; UK

Environmentally Extended Input-Output Analysis of the UK Economy: Key Sector Analysis

The paper assesses the sustainability of investment in various economic sectors, with the aim of minimizing resource use and generation of emissions. The broad development focus of the paper and the potential for the proposed methodology to be applied in many different countries make it a useful methodological contribution to the global sustainability debate. The UK case is taken for illustration purposes, and (given the availability of the necessary data) this methodology could be applied in countries with various economic structures and specialisations. An environmentally extended static 123-sector UK input-output model is used, linking a range of physical flows (domestic extraction, use of water, and emissions of CO2, CH4, NOx) with the economic structure of the UK. A range of environmentally adjusted forward and backward linkage coefficients has been developed, adjusted according to final demand, domestic extraction, publicly supplied and directly abstracted water, amd emissions of CO2 and NOx,. The data on the final demand-adjusted and environmentally adjusted forward and backward linkage coefficients were used in a multi-criteria decision-aid assessment, employing a NAIADE method in three different sustainability settings. The assessment was constructed in such a way that each sector of the UK economy was assessed by means of a panel of sustainability criteria, maximizing economic effects and minimizing environmental effects. This type of multi-criteria analysis, applied here for the first time, could prove to be a valuable basis for similar studies, especially in the developing world, where trade-offs between economic development and environmental protection have been the subject of considerable debate.

Multi-criteria decision analysis to assess the environmental and economic performance of using recycled gypsum cement and recycled aggregate to produce concrete: the case of Catalonia (Spain)

The production of virgin raw materials used in construction and the generation of construction and demolition waste (CDW) are key environmental issues in the construction industry. Portland cement and concrete are used extensively in the construction sector. Processing of CDW to produce recycled gypsum cement and recycled aggregates (RA) and their use in the production of structural and non-structural concrete are one way of slowing natural resource depletion and reducing the amount of CDW landfilled. This study proposes the application of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to compare the production of “green” concretes made from recycled gypsum cement (RGC) and RA with the production of conventional concrete made from natural aggregate and ordinary Portland cement. The VIKOR MCDA method was employed to determine the best or a set of good alternative(s) for concrete production, considering environmental and economic criteria. The life cycle assessment method was used to select the environmental evaluation criteria, and the reference cost of producing concrete alternatives in Spain was used to determine economic criteria. The results of this study, in which environmental and economic criteria were considered of equal weight, or one of the two criteria was given greater weight, showed that the best option for structural and non-structural concrete was the use of RGC and RA. In both cases, the worst alternative was conventional concrete. In conclusion, we found that the use of RGC and RA in concrete production is positive because it replaces the original raw material, reduces the environmental impact, and lowers the economic costs.Postprint (published version

Avaliações hidrológicas, hidráulicas e multicriteriais de susceptibilidade às inundações em áreas urbanas costeiras : estudo de caso da bacia do Rio Juqueriquerê no Brasil

Orientadores: Antonio Carlos Zuffo, Monzur Alam ImteazTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo e Swinburne University of Technology (Australia)Resumo: O desenvolvimento significativo de Caraguatatuba é traduzido pela sua potencialidade ao turismo, exploração de gás, proximidade do Porto de São Sebastião e ampliação do complexo viário da Tamoios, particularmente na Bacia do Rio Juqueriquerê, que é a maior planície não urbanizada do litoral norte de São Paulo, Brasil. A área é constituída por baixas declividades e lençóis freáticos rasos, cercada pelas altas escarpas da Serra do Mar. Além disso, é afetada por chuvas orográficas e variação de marés, contribuindo para a ocorrência natural de inundações. Apesar da área à jusante ser densamente urbanizada, a bacia não é propriamente monitorada, tornando a previsão de futuros cenários com a tradicional modelagem hidrológica muito desafiadora, devido à falta de dados representativos. No presente estudo, a análise multicriterial para tomada de decisão (MCDA) foi utilizada para determinar os critérios mais impactantes na susceptibilidade às inundações do local. O cenário futuro foi baseado no uso e cobertura da terra proposto pelo Plano Diretor de Caraguatatuba. A pesquisa com especialistas usando o método Delphi e o Processo de Análise Hierárquica (AHP) foram associados para a atribuição e comparação por pares dos seguintes critérios: elevação, densidade de drenagem, chuva, declividade e Curva Número (CN), do Serviço de Conservação do Solo (SCS) dos Estados Unidos. A bacia foi discretizada em 11 sub-bacias, e vários métodos estatísticos e empíricos foram empregados para a parametrização do modelo multicriterial. Após a definição dos critérios e tratamento estatístico dos julgamentos de todos os especialistas, uma faixa limitada de pesos foi gerada, variando de 8,36 a 8,88, a qual foi efetivamente convertida para uma ampla faixa de valores de prioridade pelo uso de uma abordagem extendida do método AHP. A escala de julgamento da raiz quadrada aplicada no estudo gerou resultados de boa qualidade, onde a taxa de consistência foi de 0,0218 e o índice de consistência foi de 0,0244. Além disso, a análise de sensibilidade revelou a coerência do vetor peso, por meio da variação do critério de elevação (+10 % e -5%), afetando os pesos mas não a hierarquia. Posteriormente, todos os critérios foram implementados no sistema de informações geográficas (SIG). Foi realizada uma discussão minuciosa sobre a aquisição da variável CN, levando em consideração os tipos de solo brasileiros e as condições de saturação locais. As limitações do método SCS-CN foram destacadas, especialmente no que se refere à sua aplicação em bacias não monitoradas, quando não é possível calibrar ou validar o modelo. A estimativa e a calibração dos coeficientes de rugosidade de Manning nos principais cursos d'água também foram desenvolvidas no estudo, com base nos dados observados e medidos em trabalhos de campo. Os desvios médios absolutos entre os valores de Manning variaram de 0,004 a 0,008, mostrando que a metodologia proposta pode ser aplicada em quaisquer áreas de estudo, tanto para calibrar quanto para atualizar os coeficientes de rugosidade de Manning em diferentes períodos. A distribuição da função gamma foi utilizada para o cálculo das chuvas de projeto, que posteriormente foram utilizadas para a análise de correlação entre chuvas anuais e diárias. O Sistema de Análise Fluvial do Centro de Engenharia Hidrológica em 2 dimensões (HEC-RAS 2D) e o Sistema de Modelagem Hidrológica (HEC-HMS) foram utilizados para a calibração do parâmetro CN e para a validação do modelo. Os limites de inundação gerados no processo de vadidação (pelo modelo HEC-RAS 2D) foram muito similares aos gerados pela abordagem MCDA, correspondendo a 93,92 % e 96,31 %, respectivamente. Os métodos de interpolação foram essenciais para a distribuição temporal e espacial dos dados meteorológicos no modelo de precipitação-vazão usados para validação, e também no modelo MCDA implementado no SIG. A determinação final da probabilidade de susceptibilidade às inundações nas planícies estudadas foi baseada na soma ponderada espacial dos critérios atribuídos previamente. Por fim, os mapas de susceptibilidade às inundações foram gerados para os diferentes cenários. As simulações de diferentes padrões de chuva mostraram que este critério influenciou fortemente na probabilidade de suscetibilidade às inundações. Para a simulação de maiores elevações e chuvas máximas, o índice de susceptibilidade às inundações foi 4 (do total de 5). A maior contribuição do estudo foi na aquisição de parâmetros confiáveis por meio das técnicas propostas, que também podem ser utilizadas em outras áreas, principalmente onde os dados são escassos e há complexas limitações físicas envolvidas, visando o desenvolvimento urbano sustentável da regiãoAbstract: The significant development of Caraguatatuba Municipality is translated by its tourism potentiality, gas exploration, proximity to the Port of Sao Sebastiao and extension of the Tamoios Highway complex, particularly in the Juqueriquere River Basin, which is the major non-urbanised plains of the northern coastline of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The area is comprised of low slopes and shallow water tables, surrounded by the high elevations of the Serra do Mar mountains. Additionally, It is affected by orographic rainfalls and tide variation, contributing to the natural occurrence of floods. Even though the downstream area is densely urbanised, the watershed is not properly gauged, making it a challenging task for the prediction of future scenarios with the traditional hydrological modelling approach, due to the lack of representative data. In the current study, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) were used to determine the mostly impacting criteria to the local flood susceptibility. The future scenario was based on the land use and land cover proposed by the City Master Plan of Caraguatatuba. The expert-based survey using the Delphi method and the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) were associated with the attribution and pairwise comparison of the following criteria: elevation, density drainage, rainfall, slope and curve number (CN), from the US Soil Conservation Service (SCS). The watershed was discretised in 11 sub-basins, and several statistical and empirical methods were employed for the parameterisation of the multicriteria model. After the definition of the criteria and the statistical treatment of the judgements of all experts, a limited range of weights was derived, varying from 8.36 to 8.88, which was effectively converted to a larger ratio of priority values by the use of an extended approach of the AHP methodology. The root square judgement scale applied in the study generated good-quality results, where the consistency ratio was 0.0218 and the consistency index was 0.0244. Besides, the sensitivity analysis revealed the coherence of the weight vector, by the variation of the elevation criterion (+10 % and -5%), affecting the weights but not the hierarchy. Further, all the criteria were implemented in the geographical information system (GIS). There was a thorough discussion regarding the acquisition of the CN variable, taking into consideration the Brazilian soil types and the local saturated conditions. The constraints of the SCS-CN method were highlighted, especially regarding its application in ungauged basins, where it is not possible to calibrate or validate the model. The estimation and calibration of the Manning's roughness coefficients of the main watercourses were also developed in the study, based on the observed and measured data in field campaigns. The mean absolute deviations between the estimated and the calibrated Manning's values varied from 0.004 and 0.008, showing that the proposed methodology might be applied in any study areas, both to calibrate and to update the Manning's roughness coefficients in different periods. The gamma-function distribution was carried out to calculate the design rainfalls, which were later used for the correlation analysis of the annual and the daily rainfalls. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System 2D (HEC-RAS 2D) and the Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) were used for the calibration of the CN variable and for the model validation. The inundation boundaries derived in the validation process (by the HEC-RAS 2D model) were very similar to the ones achieved by the MCDA approach, corresponding to 93.92 % and 96.31 %, respectively. The interpolation methods were essential for the spatial and temporal distribution of the meteorological data in the rainfall-runoff model used for validation, and also in the GIS-based MCDA model. The final determination of the likelihood of flood susceptibility in the studied plains was based on the spatially weighted summation of the previously attributed criteria. Finally, flood susceptibility maps were generated for the different scenarios. The simulations of different rainfall patterns showed that this criterion profoundly influenced the likelihood to flood susceptibility. For the simulation of higher elevations and maximum rainfalls, the achieved index of flood susceptibility was 4 (out of 5). The main contribution of the study was the achievement of reliable parameters by the proposed techniques, that may also be used in other areas, mainly where data is scarce and complex physical constraints are involved, targeting the sustainable urban development of the regionDoutoradoRecursos Hidricos, Energeticos e AmbientaisDoutora em Engenharia Civi

A new scenario-based framework for conflict resolution in water allocation in transboundary watersheds

One of the main causes of water conflicts in transboundary watersheds all over the world is represented by the increasing water demand due to urban, industrial, and agricultural development. In this context, water scarcity plays a critical role since, during a drought period, water supply is not su cient to cover the demand of all water uses. In this work, we have conceptualized and developed a new scenario-based framework able to improve the sustainability and equity of water allocation among two or more riparian countries. The proposed approach is in accordance with the United Nations Watercourses Convention. It considers a hydraulic/hydrologic model, a water-management model, and combines them with multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and what if scenario analysis (WISA). The suggested framework was applied to the transboundary watershed of Cuareim/Quaraí river (Uruguay/Brazil) to tackle a real water-sharing conflict. It resulted in being very flexible in exploring various policy options and test and quantifying them with di erent scenarios to reach an objective and impartial decision in a water-sharing issue. This framework can e ectively be applied to any other transboundary watershed to resolve any possible conflict related to water-allocation/water-management matter

Environmentally Extended Input–Output Analysis of the UK Economy: Key Sector Analysis

The paper assesses the sustainability of investment in various economic sectors, with the aim of minimizing resource use and generation of emissions. The broad development focus of the paper and the potential for the proposed methodology to be applied in many different countries make it a useful methodological contribution to the global sustainability debate. The UK case is taken for illustration purposes, and (given the availability of the necessary data) this methodology could be applied in countries with various economic structures and specialisations. An environmentally extended static 123-sector UK input–output model is used, linking a range of physical flows (domestic extraction, use of water, and emissions of CO2, CH4, NOx) with the economic structure of the UK. A range of environmentally adjusted forward and backward linkage coefficients has been developed, adjusted according to final demand, domestic extraction, publicly supplied and directly abstracted water, amd emissions of CO2 and NOx,. The data on the final demandadjusted and environmentally adjusted forward and backward linkage coefficients were used in a multi-criteria decision-aid assessment, employing a NAIADE method in three different sustainability settings. The assessment was constructed in such a way that each sector of the UK economy was assessed by means of a panel of sustainability criteria, maximizing economic effects and minimizing environmental effects. This type of multi-criteria analysis, applied here for the first time, could prove to be a valuable basis for similar studies, especially in the developing world, where trade-offs between economic development and environmental protection have been the subject of considerable debate

Using multi-criteria analysis for smart city assessment

Urban centers have been under a new concept of city. Smart Cities are, in a nutshell, organized communities that feature high communication technology and conscious investments in sustainability, providing dynamic and safe environments. This paper presents a methodology to assess and rank Smart Cities based on a multi-criteria decision-making process. Methodologies that do not consider a pondered approach and filter for specific goals are commonly found in the literature, once there is a great number of criteria involved in these analyses. This work proposes filtering the criteria, considering each specific evaluation and its objectives. Our methodology is based on a multi-criteria analysis and uses AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) to support the process of weights definition and MACBAC (Multi-Attributive Border Approximation Area Comparison) in an application with compensatory characteristics. Through this study, it is possible to conduct the assessment of Smart Cities according to its multiple contexts, viz. its location, decision-makers and the objectives of the analysis. All in all, this research presents novelty related to the organization of the evaluation in accord to the expected resolution and a pondered approach with reduced number of criteria, making the analysis very straightforward.publicad

Integrated assessment of biological invasions

An assessment of the consequences of biological invasions and of the measures taken against must be at the base of each social decision in this field. Three forms of uncertainty can be distinguished that make such a decision difficult to take: (1) factual uncertainty, which encompasses not only risk, but also unknown probabilities of known consequences, and unknown consequences, (2) individual uncertainty, i.e. insecurity about the values to consider, and about the form how to consider them, and (3) social actor uncertainty, i.e. uncertainty about the social actors to consider and how to do it. This paper furnishes axiomatic reflections about the difficulties of assessments integrating these three uncertainties. Using this analytical separation, it restructures two main assessment techniques, and herewith shows the main differences between cost-benefit-analysis and multi-criteria decision aid in supporting public decisions about biological invasions. It is shown that the main difference between cost-benefit-analysis, the classical economic decision support, and multi-criteria decision analysis is less its mono- vs. multi-criteria approach, but its facility to be embedded in a social decision context. With multicriteria decision aid it is more facile to lay open the uncertainties in all three dimensions and to make them an explicit topic for public discourse. Therefore, it seems more suitable as an assessment method for biological invasions. --Biodiversity,Multi-criteria analysis,Uncertainty,Integrated Assessment,Biological Invasion,Cost-benefit analysis

Geographic Information Systems supported by multi-criteria decision analysis to indicate potentially suitable areas for construction and demolition waste disposal

In Brazil, the disposal of construction and demolition waste (CDW) quite often occurs in inadequate places, resulting in social, economic, and environmental problems. This reflects the need for selecting appropriate areas for the disposal of this type of waste. These areas must follow local standards and regulations to protect human health and the environment. Considering that, this study is intended to indicate potentially suitable areas for CDW landfill deployment, known as Class A landfill in Brazil, supported by a GIS-MCDA based model. The GIS-MCDA technique, used as a basic tool to identify potentially suitable areas, has several advantages, such as low cost, reduced spatial data subjectivity, and fast decision-making process. The place chosen for this study is the Urban Central Core of the Metropolitan Area of Curitiba. By integrating GIS with MCDA techniques in this research study, it was possible to indicate potentially suitable areas for CDW disposal in this region