Using Low Resolution Satellite Imagery for Yield Prediction and Yield Anomaly Detection

Low resolution satellite imagery has been extensively used for crop monitoring and yield forecasting for over 30 years and plays an important role in a growing number of operational systems. The combination of their high temporal frequency with their extended geographical coverage generally associated with low costs per area unit makes these images a convenient choice at both national and regional scales. Several qualitative and quantitative approaches can be clearly distinguished, going from the use of low resolution satellite imagery as the main predictor of final crop yield to complex crop growth models where remote sensing-derived indicators play different roles, depending on the nature of the model and on the availability of data measured on the ground. Vegetation performance anomaly detection with low resolution images continues to be a fundamental component of early warning and drought monitoring systems at the regional scale. For applications at more detailed scales, the limitations created by the mixed nature of low resolution pixels are being progressively reduced by the higher resolution offered by new sensors, while the continuity of existing systems remains crucial for ensuring the availability of long time series as needed by the majority of the yield prediction methods used today.JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource

Corn Yield Prediction based on Remotely Sensed Variables Using Variational Autoencoder and Multiple Instance Regression

In the U.S., corn is the most produced crop and has been an essential part of the American diet. To meet the demand for supply chain management and regional food security, accurate and timely large-scale corn yield prediction is attracting more attention in precision agriculture. Recently, remote sensing technology and machine learning methods have been widely explored for crop yield prediction. Currently, most county-level yield prediction models use county-level mean variables for prediction, ignoring much detailed information. Moreover, inconsistent spatial resolution between crop area and satellite sensors results in mixed pixels, which may decrease the prediction accuracy. Only a few works have addressed the mixed pixels problem in large-scale crop yield prediction. To address the information loss and mixed pixels problem, we developed a variational autoencoder (VAE) based multiple instance regression (MIR) model for large-scaled corn yield prediction. We use all unlabeled data to train a VAE and the well-trained VAE for anomaly detection. As a preprocess method, anomaly detection can help MIR find a better representation of every bag than traditional MIR methods, thus better performing in large-scale corn yield prediction. Our experiments showed that variational autoencoder based multiple instance regression (VAEMIR) outperformed all baseline methods in large-scale corn yield prediction. Though a suitable meta parameter is required, VAEMIR shows excellent potential in feature learning and extraction for large-scale corn yield prediction

California Almond Yield Prediction at the Orchard Level With a Machine Learning Approach.

California's almond growers face challenges with nitrogen management as new legislatively mandated nitrogen management strategies for almond have been implemented. These regulations require that growers apply nitrogen to meet, but not exceed, the annual N demand for crop and tree growth and nut production. To accurately predict seasonal nitrogen demand, therefore, growers need to estimate block-level almond yield early in the growing season so that timely N management decisions can be made. However, methods to predict almond yield are not currently available. To fill this gap, we have developed statistical models using the Stochastic Gradient Boosting, a machine learning approach, for early season yield projection and mid-season yield update over individual orchard blocks. We collected yield records of 185 orchards, dating back to 2005, from the major almond growers in the Central Valley of California. A large set of variables were extracted as predictors, including weather and orchard characteristics from remote sensing imagery. Our results showed that the predicted orchard-level yield agreed well with the independent yield records. For both the early season (March) and mid-season (June) predictions, a coefficient of determination (R 2) of 0.71, and a ratio of performance to interquartile distance (RPIQ) of 2.6 were found on average. We also identified several key determinants of yield based on the modeling results. Almond yield increased dramatically with the orchard age until about 7 years old in general, and the higher long-term mean maximum temperature during April-June enhanced the yield in the southern orchards, while a larger amount of precipitation in March reduced the yield, especially in northern orchards. Remote sensing metrics such as annual maximum vegetation indices were also dominant variables for predicting the yield potential. While these results are promising, further refinement is needed; the availability of larger data sets and incorporation of additional variables and methodologies will be required for the model to be used as a fertilization decision support tool for growers. Our study has demonstrated the potential of automatic almond yield prediction to assist growers to manage N adaptively, comply with mandated requirements, and ensure industry sustainability

Modelling spatial variability of coffee (Coffea Arabica L.) crop condition with multispectral remote sensing data.

Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Science. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2017.Abstract available in PDF file

Terrestrial applications: An intelligent Earth-sensing information system

For Abstract see A82-2214

Evaluation of HCMM data for assessing soil moisture and water table depth

Soil moisture in the 0-cm to 4-cm layer could be estimated with 1-mm soil temperatures throughout the growing season of a rainfed barley crop in eastern South Dakota. Empirical equations were developed to reduce the effect of canopy cover when radiometrically estimating the soil temperature. Corrective equations were applied to an aircraft simulation of HCMM data for a diversity of crop types and land cover conditions to estimate the soil moisture. The average difference between observed and measured soil moisture was 1.6% of field capacity. Shallow alluvial aquifers were located with HCMM predawn data. After correcting the data for vegetation differences, equations were developed for predicting water table depths within the aquifer. A finite difference code simulating soil moisture and soil temperature shows that soils with different moisture profiles differed in soil temperatures in a well defined functional manner. A significant surface thermal anomaly was found to be associated with shallow water tables

Evaluation of HCMM data for assessing soil moisture and water table depth

Data were analyzed for variations in eastern South Dakota. Soil moisture in the 0-4 cm layer could be estimated with 1-mm soil temperatures throughout the growing season of a rainfed barley crop (% cover ranging from 30% to 90%) with an r squared = 0.81. Empirical equations were developed to reduce the effect of canopy cover when radiometrically estimating the 1-mm soil temperature, r squared = 0.88. The corrective equations were applied to an aircraft simulation of HCMM data for a diversity of crop types and land cover conditions to estimate the 0-4 cm soil moisture. The average difference between observed and measured soil moisture was 1.6% of field capacity. HCMM data were used to estimate the soil moisture for four dates with an r squared = 0.55 after correction for crop conditions. Location of shallow alluvial aquifers could be accomplished with HCMM predawn data. After correction of HCMM day data for vegetation differences, equations were developed for predicting water table depths within the aquifer (r=0.8)