Using Gaussian Processes for Rumour Stance Classification in Social Media

Social media tend to be rife with rumours while new reports are released piecemeal during breaking news. Interestingly, one can mine multiple reactions expressed by social media users in those situations, exploring their stance towards rumours, ultimately enabling the flagging of highly disputed rumours as being potentially false. In this work, we set out to develop an automated, supervised classifier that uses multi-task learning to classify the stance expressed in each individual tweet in a rumourous conversation as either supporting, denying or questioning the rumour. Using a classifier based on Gaussian Processes, and exploring its effectiveness on two datasets with very different characteristics and varying distributions of stances, we show that our approach consistently outperforms competitive baseline classifiers. Our classifier is especially effective in estimating the distribution of different types of stance associated with a given rumour, which we set forth as a desired characteristic for a rumour-tracking system that will warn both ordinary users of Twitter and professional news practitioners when a rumour is being rebutted

Discourse-aware rumour stance classification in social media using sequential classifiers

Rumour stance classification, defined as classifying the stance of specific social media posts into one of supporting, denying, querying or commenting on an earlier post, is becoming of increasing interest to researchers. While most previous work has focused on using individual tweets as classifier inputs, here we report on the performance of sequential classifiers that exploit the discourse features inherent in social media interactions or 'conversational threads'. Testing the effectiveness of four sequential classifiers -- Hawkes Processes, Linear-Chain Conditional Random Fields (Linear CRF), Tree-Structured Conditional Random Fields (Tree CRF) and Long Short Term Memory networks (LSTM) -- on eight datasets associated with breaking news stories, and looking at different types of local and contextual features, our work sheds new light on the development of accurate stance classifiers. We show that sequential classifiers that exploit the use of discourse properties in social media conversations while using only local features, outperform non-sequential classifiers. Furthermore, we show that LSTM using a reduced set of features can outperform the other sequential classifiers; this performance is consistent across datasets and across types of stances. To conclude, our work also analyses the different features under study, identifying those that best help characterise and distinguish between stances, such as supporting tweets being more likely to be accompanied by evidence than denying tweets. We also set forth a number of directions for future research

Simple open stance classification for rumour analysis

Stance classification determines the attitude, or stance, in a (typically short) text. The task has powerful applications, such as the detection of fake news or the automatic extraction of attitudes toward entities or events in the media. This paper describes a surprisingly simple and efficient classification approach to open stance classification in Twitter, for rumour and veracity classification. The approach profits from a novel set of automatically identifiable problem-specific features, which significantly boost classifier accuracy and achieve above state-of-the-art results on recent benchmark datasets. This calls into question the value of using complex sophisticated models for stance classification without first doing informed feature extraction

Rumor Stance Classification in Online Social Networks: A Survey on the State-of-the-Art, Prospects, and Future Challenges

The emergence of the Internet as a ubiquitous technology has facilitated the rapid evolution of social media as the leading virtual platform for communication, content sharing, and information dissemination. In spite of revolutionizing the way news used to be delivered to people, this technology has also brought along with itself inevitable demerits. One such drawback is the spread of rumors facilitated by social media platforms which may provoke doubt and fear upon people. Therefore, the need to debunk rumors before their wide spread has become essential all the more. Over the years, many studies have been conducted to develop effective rumor verification systems. One aspect of such studies focuses on rumor stance classification, which concerns the task of utilizing users' viewpoints about a rumorous post to better predict the veracity of a rumor. Relying on users' stances in rumor verification task has gained great importance, for it has shown significant improvements in the model performances. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive literature review on rumor stance classification in complex social networks. In particular, we present a thorough description of the approaches and mark the top performances. Moreover, we introduce multiple datasets available for this purpose and highlight their limitations. Finally, some challenges and future directions are discussed to stimulate further relevant research efforts.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figures, journa

Hawkes processes for continuous time sequence classification : an application to rumour stance classification in Twitter

Classification of temporal textual data sequences is a common task in various domains such as social media and the Web. In this paper we propose to use Hawkes Processes for classifying sequences of temporal textual data, which exploit both temporal and textual information. Our experiments on rumour stance classification on four Twitter datasets show the importance of using the temporal information of tweets along with the textual content

Rumour Veracity Estimation with Deep Learning for Twitter

Part 4: Security, Privacy, Ethics and MisinformationInternational audienceTwitter has become a fertile ground for rumours as information can propagate to too many people in very short time. Rumours can create panic in public and hence timely detection and blocking of rumour information is urgently required. We proposed and compare machine learning classifiers with a deep learning model using Recurrent Neural Networks for classification of tweets into rumour and non-rumour classes. A total thirteen features based on tweet text and user characteristics were given as input to machine learning classifiers. Deep learning model was trained and tested with textual features and five user characteristic features. The findings indicate that our models perform much better than machine learning based models

Probabilistic Modeling of Rumour Stance and Popularity in Social Media

Social media tends to be rife with rumours when new reports are released piecemeal during breaking news events. One can mine multiple reactions expressed by social media users in those situations, exploring users’ stance towards rumours, ultimately enabling the flagging of highly disputed rumours as being potentially false. Moreover, rumours in social media exhibit complex temporal patterns. Some rumours are discussed with an increasing number of tweets per unit of time whereas other rumours fail to gain ground. This thesis develops probabilistic models of rumours in social media driven by two applications: rumour stance classification and modeling temporal dynamics of rumours. Rumour stance classification is the task of classifying the stance expressed in an individual tweet towards a rumour. Modeling temporal dynamics of rumours is an application where rumour prevalence is modeled over time. Both applications provide insights into how a rumour attracts attention from the social media community. These can assist journalists with their work on rumour tracking and debunking, and can be used in downstream applications such as systems for rumour veracity classification. In this thesis, we develop models based on probabilistic approaches. We motivate Gaussian processes and point processes as appropriate tools and show how features not considered in previous work can be included. We show that for both applications, transfer learning approaches are successful, supporting the hypothesis that there is a common underlying signal across different rumours. We furthermore introduce novel machine learning techniques which have the potential to be used in other applications: convolution kernels for streams of text over continuous time and a sequence classification algorithm based on point processes

Stance classification in rumours as a sequential task exploiting the tree structure of social media conversations

Rumour stance classification, the task that determines if each tweet in a collection discussing a rumour is supporting, denying, questioning or simply commenting on the rumour, has been attracting substantial interest. Here we introduce a novel approach that makes use of the sequence of transitions observed in tree-structured conversation threads in Twitter. The conversation threads are formed by harvesting users’ replies to one another, which results in a nested tree-like structure. Previous work addressing the stance classification task has treated each tweet as a separate unit. Here we analyse tweets by virtue of their position in a sequence and test two sequential classifiers, Linear-Chain CRF and Tree CRF, each of which makes different assumptions about the conversational structure. We experiment with eight Twitter datasets, collected during breaking news, and show that exploiting the sequential structure of Twitter conversations achieves significant improvements over the non-sequential methods. Our work is the first to model Twitter conversations as a tree structure in this manner, introducing a novel way of tackling NLP tasks on Twitter conversations

Exploiting context for rumour detection in social media

Tools that are able to detect unverified information posted on social media during a news event can help to avoid the spread of rumours that turn out to be false. In this paper we compare a novel approach using Conditional Random Fields that learns from the sequential dynamics of social media posts with the current state-of-the-art rumour detection system, as well as other baselines. In contrast to existing work, our classifier does not need to observe tweets querying the stance of a post to deem it a rumour but, instead, exploits context learned during the event. Our classifier has improved precision and recall over the state-of-the-art classifier that relies on querying tweets, as well as outperforming our best baseline. Moreover, the results provide evidence for the generalisability of our classifier

A semi-supervised approach to message stance classification

Social media communications are becoming increasingly prevalent; some useful, some false, whether unwittingly or maliciously. An increasing number of rumours daily flood the social networks. Determining their veracity in an autonomous way is a very active and challenging field of research, with a variety of methods proposed. However, most of the models rely on determining the constituent messages’ stance towards the rumour, a feature known as the “wisdom of the crowd”. Although several supervised machine-learning approaches have been proposed to tackle the message stance classification problem, these have numerous shortcomings. In this paper we argue that semi-supervised learning is more effective than supervised models and use two graph-based methods to demonstrate it. This is not only in terms of classification accuracy, but equally important, in terms of speed and scalability. We use the Label Propagation and Label Spreading algorithms and run experiments on a dataset of 72 rumours and hundreds of thousands messages collected from Twitter. We compare our results on two available datasets to the state-of-the-art to demonstrate our algorithms’ performance regarding accuracy, speed and scalability for real-time applications