Identifying subtypes of heart failure from three electronic health record sources with machine learning: an external, prognostic, and genetic validation study

BACKGROUND: Machine learning has been used to analyse heart failure subtypes, but not across large, distinct, population-based datasets, across the whole spectrum of causes and presentations, or with clinical and non-clinical validation by different machine learning methods. Using our published framework, we aimed to discover heart failure subtypes and validate them upon population representative data. METHODS: In this external, prognostic, and genetic validation study we analysed individuals aged 30 years or older with incident heart failure from two population-based databases in the UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink [CPRD] and The Health Improvement Network [THIN]) from 1998 to 2018. Pre-heart failure and post-heart failure factors (n=645) included demographic information, history, examination, blood laboratory values, and medications. We identified subtypes using four unsupervised machine learning methods (K-means, hierarchical, K-Medoids, and mixture model clustering) with 87 of 645 factors in each dataset. We evaluated subtypes for (1) external validity (across datasets); (2) prognostic validity (predictive accuracy for 1-year mortality); and (3) genetic validity (UK Biobank), association with polygenic risk score (PRS) for heart failure-related traits (n=11), and single nucleotide polymorphisms (n=12). FINDINGS: We included 188 800, 124 262, and 9573 individuals with incident heart failure from CPRD, THIN, and UK Biobank, respectively, between Jan 1, 1998, and Jan 1, 2018. After identifying five clusters, we labelled heart failure subtypes as (1) early onset, (2) late onset, (3) atrial fibrillation related, (4) metabolic, and (5) cardiometabolic. In the external validity analysis, subtypes were similar across datasets (c-statistics: THIN model in CPRD ranged from 0·79 [subtype 3] to 0·94 [subtype 1], and CPRD model in THIN ranged from 0·79 [subtype 1] to 0·92 [subtypes 2 and 5]). In the prognostic validity analysis, 1-year all-cause mortality after heart failure diagnosis (subtype 1 0·20 [95% CI 0·14-0·25], subtype 2 0·46 [0·43-0·49], subtype 3 0·61 [0·57-0·64], subtype 4 0·11 [0·07-0·16], and subtype 5 0·37 [0·32-0·41]) differed across subtypes in CPRD and THIN data, as did risk of non-fatal cardiovascular diseases and all-cause hospitalisation. In the genetic validity analysis the atrial fibrillation-related subtype showed associations with the related PRS. Late onset and cardiometabolic subtypes were the most similar and strongly associated with PRS for hypertension, myocardial infarction, and obesity (p<0·0009). We developed a prototype app for routine clinical use, which could enable evaluation of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. INTERPRETATION: Across four methods and three datasets, including genetic data, in the largest study of incident heart failure to date, we identified five machine learning-informed subtypes, which might inform aetiological research, clinical risk prediction, and the design of heart failure trials. FUNDING: European Union Innovative Medicines Initiative-2

Real-World Evidence on the Clinical Characteristics and Management of Patients with Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia in Spain Using Natural Language Processing: The SRealCLL Study

Artificial intelligence; Chronic lymphocytic leukemia; Natural language processingInteligencia artificial; Leucemia linfocítica crónica; Procesamiento del lenguaje naturalIntel·ligència artificial; Leucèmia limfocítica crònica; Processament del llenguatge naturalThe SRealCLL study aimed to obtain real-world evidence on the clinical characteristics and treatment patterns of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) using natural language processing (NLP). Electronic health records (EHRs) from seven Spanish hospitals (January 2016–December 2018) were analyzed using EHRead® technology, based on NLP and machine learning. A total of 534 CLL patients were assessed. No treatment was detected in 270 (50.6%) patients (watch-and-wait, W&W). First-line (1L) treatment was identified in 230 (43.1%) patients and relapsed/refractory (2L) treatment was identified in 58 (10.9%). The median age ranged from 71 to 75 years, with a uniform male predominance (54.8–63.8%). The main comorbidities included hypertension (W&W: 35.6%; 1L: 38.3%; 2L: 39.7%), diabetes mellitus (W&W: 24.4%; 1L: 24.3%; 2L: 31%), cardiac arrhythmia (W&W: 16.7%; 1L: 17.8%; 2L: 17.2%), heart failure (W&W 16.3%, 1L 17.4%, 2L 17.2%), and dyslipidemia (W&W: 13.7%; 1L: 18.7%; 2L: 19.0%). The most common antineoplastic treatment was ibrutinib in 1L (64.8%) and 2L (62.1%), followed by bendamustine + rituximab (12.6%), obinutuzumab + chlorambucil (5.2%), rituximab + chlorambucil (4.8%), and idelalisib + rituximab (3.9%) in 1L and venetoclax (15.5%), idelalisib + rituximab (6.9%), bendamustine + rituximab (3.5%), and venetoclax + rituximab (3.5%) in 2L. This study expands the information available on patients with CLL in Spain, describing the diversity in patient characteristics and therapeutic approaches in clinical practice.This study was founded by AstraZeneca Farmacéutica Spain, S.A

Utilizing Temporal Information in The EHR for Developing a Novel Continuous Prediction Model

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a nation-wide prevalent chronic condition, which includes direct and indirect healthcare costs. T2DM, however, is a preventable chronic condition based on previous clinical research. Many prediction models were based on the risk factors identified by clinical trials. One of the major tasks of the T2DM prediction models is to estimate the risks for further testing by HbA1c or fasting plasma glucose to determine whether the patient has or does not have T2DM because nation-wide screening is not cost-effective. Those models had substantial limitations on data quality, such as missing values. In this dissertation, I tested the conventional models which were based on the most widely used risk factors to predict the possibility of developing T2DM. The AUC was an average of 0.5, which implies the conventional model cannot be used to screen for T2DM risks. Based on this result, I further implemented three types of temporal representations, including non-temporal representation, interval-temporal representation, and continuous-temporal representation for building the T2DM prediction model. According to the results, continuous-temporal representation had the best performance. Continuous-temporal representation was based on deep learning methods. The result implied that the deep learning method could overcome the data quality issue and could achieve better performance. This dissertation also contributes to a continuous risk output model based on the seq2seq model. This model can generate a monotonic increasing function for a given patient to predict the future probability of developing T2DM. The model is workable but still has many limitations to overcome. Finally, this dissertation demonstrates some risks factors which are underestimated and are worthy for further research to revise the current T2DM screening guideline. The results were still preliminary. I need to collaborate with an epidemiologist and other fields to verify the findings. In the future, the methods for building a T2DM prediction model can also be used for other prediction models of chronic conditions

Perspectives on Sex- and Gender-Specific Prediction of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation by Leveraging Big Data

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia, has a large impact on quality of life and is associated with increased risk of hospitalization, morbidity, and mortality. Over the past two decades advances regarding the clinical epidemiology and management of AF have been established. Moreover, sex differences in the prevalence, incidence, prediction, pathophysiology, and prognosis of AF have been identified. Nevertheless, AF remains to be a complex and heterogeneous disorder and a comprehensive sex- and gender-specific approach to predict new-onset AF is lacking. The exponential growth in various sources of big data such as electrocardiograms, electronic health records, and wearable devices, carries the potential to improve AF risk prediction. Leveraging these big data sources by artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled approaches, in particular in a sex- and gender-specific manner, could lead to substantial advancements in AF prediction and ultimately prevention. We highlight the current status, premise, and potential of big data to improve sex- and gender-specific prediction of new-onset AF

Data-Driven Modeling For Decision Support Systems And Treatment Management In Personalized Healthcare

Massive amount of electronic medical records (EMRs) accumulating from patients and populations motivates clinicians and data scientists to collaborate for the advanced analytics to create knowledge that is essential to address the extensive personalized insights needed for patients, clinicians, providers, scientists, and health policy makers. Learning from large and complicated data is using extensively in marketing and commercial enterprises to generate personalized recommendations. Recently the medical research community focuses to take the benefits of big data analytic approaches and moves to personalized (precision) medicine. So, it is a significant period in healthcare and medicine for transferring to a new paradigm. There is a noticeable opportunity to implement a learning health care system and data-driven healthcare to make better medical decisions, better personalized predictions; and more precise discovering of risk factors and their interactions. In this research we focus on data-driven approaches for personalized medicine. We propose a research framework which emphasizes on three main phases: 1) Predictive modeling, 2) Patient subgroup analysis and 3) Treatment recommendation. Our goal is to develop novel methods for each phase and apply them in real-world applications. In the fist phase, we develop a new predictive approach based on feature representation using deep feature learning and word embedding techniques. Our method uses different deep architectures (Stacked autoencoders, Deep belief network and Variational autoencoders) for feature representation in higher-level abstractions to obtain effective and more robust features from EMRs, and then build prediction models on the top of them. Our approach is particularly useful when the unlabeled data is abundant whereas labeled one is scarce. We investigate the performance of representation learning through a supervised approach. We perform our method on different small and large datasets. Finally we provide a comparative study and show that our predictive approach leads to better results in comparison with others. In the second phase, we propose a novel patient subgroup detection method, called Supervised Biclustring (SUBIC) using convex optimization and apply our approach to detect patient subgroups and prioritize risk factors for hypertension (HTN) in a vulnerable demographic subgroup (African-American). Our approach not only finds patient subgroups with guidance of a clinically relevant target variable but also identifies and prioritizes risk factors by pursuing sparsity of the input variables and encouraging similarity among the input variables and between the input and target variables. Finally, in the third phase, we introduce a new survival analysis framework using deep learning and active learning with a novel sampling strategy. First, our approach provides better representation with lower dimensions from clinical features using labeled (time-to-event) and unlabeled (censored) instances and then actively trains the survival model by labeling the censored data using an oracle. As a clinical assistive tool, we propose a simple yet effective treatment recommendation approach based on our survival model. In the experimental study, we apply our approach on SEER-Medicare data related to prostate cancer among African-Americans and white patients. The results indicate that our approach outperforms significantly than baseline models

Assessment of medical management in Coronary Type 2 Diabetic patients with previous percutaneous coronary intervention in Spain: A retrospective analysis of electronic health records using Natural Language Processing

Coronary heart disease; Type 2 diabetes; Electronic medical recordsEnfermedad coronaria; Diabetes tipo 2; Registros médicos electrónicosMalaltia coronària; Diabetis tipus 2; Registres mèdics electrònicsIntroduction and objectives Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and stable coronary artery disease (CAD) previously revascularized with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are at high risk of recurrent ischemic events. We aimed to provide real-world insights into the clinical characteristics and management of this clinical population, excluding patients with a history of myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke, using Natural Language Processing (NLP) technology. Methods This is a multicenter, retrospective study based on the secondary use of 2014–2018 real-world data captured in the Electronic Health Records (EHRs) of 1,579 patients (0.72% of the T2D population analyzed; n = 217,632 patients) from 12 representative hospitals in Spain. To access the unstructured clinical information in EHRs, we used the EHRead® technology, based on NLP and machine learning. Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were considered: MI, ischemic stroke, urgent coronary revascularization, and hospitalization due to unstable angina. The association between MACE rates and the variables included in this study was evaluated following univariate and multivariate approaches. Results Most patients were male (72.13%), with a mean age of 70.5±10 years. Regarding T2D, most patients were non-insulin-dependent T2D (61.75%) with high prevalence of comorbidities. The median (Q1-Q3) duration of follow-up was 1.2 (0.3–4.5) years. Overall, 35.66% of patients suffered from at least one MACE during follow up. Using a Cox Proportional Hazards regression model analysis, several independent factors were associated with MACE during follow up: CAD duration (p < 0.001), COPD/Asthma (p = 0.021), heart valve disease (p = 0.031), multivessel disease (p = 0.005), insulin treatment (p < 0.001), statins treatment (p < 0.001), and clopidogrel treatment (p = 0.039). Conclusions Our results showed high rates of MACE in a large real-world series of PCI-revascularized patients with T2D and CAD with no history of MI or stroke. These data represent a potential opportunity to improve the clinical management of these patients.This study was funded by AstraZeneca Spain and sponsored by the Spanish Society of Cardiology