Discrete event simulation and virtual reality use in industry: new opportunities and future trends

This paper reviews the area of combined discrete event simulation (DES) and virtual reality (VR) use within industry. While establishing a state of the art for progress in this area, this paper makes the case for VR DES as the vehicle of choice for complex data analysis through interactive simulation models, highlighting both its advantages and current limitations. This paper reviews active research topics such as VR and DES real-time integration, communication protocols, system design considerations, model validation, and applications of VR and DES. While summarizing future research directions for this technology combination, the case is made for smart factory adoption of VR DES as a new platform for scenario testing and decision making. It is put that in order for VR DES to fully meet the visualization requirements of both Industry 4.0 and Industrial Internet visions of digital manufacturing, further research is required in the areas of lower latency image processing, DES delivery as a service, gesture recognition for VR DES interaction, and linkage of DES to real-time data streams and Big Data sets

National economic policy simulations with global interdependencies : a sensitivity analysis for Germany

"Policy simulations for national economies with econometric models in general are done using a stand alone national model with exogenous export values and import prices. In a globalised world such an exercise is critical, since the policy in question may change the export prices and the import volumes of the particular country and induce via international trade a change of the economic activities of the global economy and a feed back to the export values and import prices of the particular country. The paper at hand presents a sensitivity analysis for Germany comparing the impacts of a shock on investment in a stand alone simulation using the multisector model INFORGE with the results, which occur, if the same model is linked to the global multicountry/multisector model GINFORS endogenising Germany's export values and import prices. The results are striking: The effect on real GDP is 50% higher in the global simulation than in the stand alone case. Because of the specialisation in trade the differences on the sector level are even stronger." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Wirtschaftspolitik, Globalisierung - Auswirkungen, Export, Preisniveau, Importquote, Exportquote, Welthandel, Ökonometrie - Modell, Bruttoinlandsprodukt, volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung, Außenhandelspolitik, Außenhandelsentwicklung

Counterfactual analysis using a regional dynamic general equilibrium model with historical calibration

This paper develops a regional dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated using two regional SAMs for the Italian region Valle D’Aosta for the years 1963 and 2002. A historical calibration procedure is performed over the 40 years period and a validation exercise ensures that the modelled tendencies closely approximate the actual observed growth patterns of the main regional macroeconomic variables. The dynamic general equilibrium model provides an original and powerful tool for historical counterfactual analysis not available using standard dynamic general equilibrium models. The model is used to compare the growth path followed by the region during the period of interest with different scenarios intended to rank the social desirability of alternative behaviours of the regional administration.historical calibration, historical validation, regional dynamic general equilibrium model, historical counterfactual analysis

Income Distribution and Labour Movement in China after WTO Membership: A CGE Analysis

applied CGE modelling, China, WTO, labour movement, inequality

Long-Run Effects of Post-Kyoto Policies: Applying a Fully Dynamic CGE model with Heterogeneous Capital

The paper develops a new type of CGE model to predict the effects of carbon policies on consumption, welfare, and sectoral development in the long run. Growth is fully endogenous, based on increasing specialization in capital varieties, and specic in each sector of the economy. The benchmark scenario is calculated based on the endogenous gains from specialization which carry over to policy simulation. Applying the model to the Swiss economy we nd that a carbon policy following the Copenhagen Accord entails a moderate but not negligible welfare loss compared to development without any negative eects of climate change. Energy extensive as well as capital and knowledge intensive sectors prot in the form of increased growth rates.Carbon policy, CGE models, energy and endogenous growth, heterogeneous capital

Exchange Rate, Expected Profit, and Capital Stock Adjustment: Japanese Experience

This paper empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate shocks on corporate investment. An intertemporal optimization model is developed in which an individual corporation in an open economy adjusts its capital stock according to the Tobinfs q, which represents the future stream of the profit rate and changes by the real exchange rate. By explicitly considering the marginal q, the transmission mechanism from real exchange rate shocks to investment dynamics via expected profitability is examined based on the Vector Autoregressive model. Empirical evidence suggests that the depreciation of the Japanese yen increases the expected profitability of the firm and stimulates corporate investment, especially in the machinery sector. This characteristic basically corresponds to the structure of external exposure and offers an important finding from the viewpoint of Japanese macroeconomic fluctuations.Intertemporal Optimization, Marginal q, Pass-Through, Export Exposure

Effects of WTO membership on income distribution and labour movement in China – A CGE analysis

Using a CGE model (PRCGEM) updated to 2002, the paper explores how WTO membership could affect earnings in 40 industries across 31 regions (and 8 regional blocks) of China during the period 2002–2007. Taking into account labour movement between regions within China, the direct contribution of WTO membership to overall economic growth and development is predicted to be small, with a rise in real GDP of only 6.48% short term and 5.6% long term. However, structural economic change and the WTO shock should increase regional output, especially in the established coastal economies. Regional labour movement is found to increase 69.2% at the completion of economic structural reforms. A slight decrease in the Gini coefficient for income inequality is also anticipated.applied CGE modelling; China; WTO; labour movement; inequality

AI and OR in management of operations: history and trends

The last decade has seen a considerable growth in the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for operations management with the aim of finding solutions to problems that are increasing in complexity and scale. This paper begins by setting the context for the survey through a historical perspective of OR and AI. An extensive survey of applications of AI techniques for operations management, covering a total of over 1200 papers published from 1995 to 2004 is then presented. The survey utilizes Elsevier's ScienceDirect database as a source. Hence, the survey may not cover all the relevant journals but includes a sufficiently wide range of publications to make it representative of the research in the field. The papers are categorized into four areas of operations management: (a) design, (b) scheduling, (c) process planning and control and (d) quality, maintenance and fault diagnosis. Each of the four areas is categorized in terms of the AI techniques used: genetic algorithms, case-based reasoning, knowledge-based systems, fuzzy logic and hybrid techniques. The trends over the last decade are identified, discussed with respect to expected trends and directions for future work suggested

The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

Economic growth in Vietnam has been fairly resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. In addition, the impact of the crises on employment and poverty is in dispute. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose impacts and estimate distributional outcomes. Our results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis increased employment and reduced poverty by favouring labour-intensive exports, especially in agriculture. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains. It pushed more than a million workers into unemployment and about 3 million people below the US$2-a-day poverty line, with the vast majority of these being rural dwellers. The net effect of the crises left Vietnam little changed from a baseline (no crises) path in terms of aggregate indicators including the poverty rate. An effective stimulus package has the potential to offset one third of the increase in poverty caused by the financial crisis leaving poverty rates below the (no crises) baseline.Economic crisis, growth, poverty, Vietnam