Mobility, education and labor market outcomes for U.S. graduates: Is selectivity important?

The literature on human capital, and its positive effects on individuals and regional economies, is now vast. The linkages between human capital and migration have also found a fertile ground in recent years especially in Europe where many studies have focused on interregional migration of graduates and highly skilled individuals. However, the literature on this phenomenon in the USA is less developed. Using the SESTAT database from NSF, this paper aims at contributing to the understanding of inter-state migration behavior of graduates in the USA and its effects on their career outcomes. It builds on the existing literature not only by focusing specifically on the US context, but also incorporating into the empirical model a correction for the possible selection bias that arises from the dual relationship between migration propensity and human capital endowment. Our estimated Mincerian earning equations, corrected for migrant self-selectivity, show that indeed repeat migration is associated with higher average salaries, while late migration is associated with a salary penalty. As for the other control variables, our results are consistent with what has been found in the labor economics literature. Female workers suffer from a salary penalty, while experience, level of education and employer size are all associated with higher average salaries. The labor market also rewards different fields of study differently

From Social Data Mining to Forecasting Socio-Economic Crisis

Socio-economic data mining has a great potential in terms of gaining a better understanding of problems that our economy and society are facing, such as financial instability, shortages of resources, or conflicts. Without large-scale data mining, progress in these areas seems hard or impossible. Therefore, a suitable, distributed data mining infrastructure and research centers should be built in Europe. It also appears appropriate to build a network of Crisis Observatories. They can be imagined as laboratories devoted to the gathering and processing of enormous volumes of data on both natural systems such as the Earth and its ecosystem, as well as on human techno-socio-economic systems, so as to gain early warnings of impending events. Reality mining provides the chance to adapt more quickly and more accurately to changing situations. Further opportunities arise by individually customized services, which however should be provided in a privacy-respecting way. This requires the development of novel ICT (such as a self- organizing Web), but most likely new legal regulations and suitable institutions as well. As long as such regulations are lacking on a world-wide scale, it is in the public interest that scientists explore what can be done with the huge data available. Big data do have the potential to change or even threaten democratic societies. The same applies to sudden and large-scale failures of ICT systems. Therefore, dealing with data must be done with a large degree of responsibility and care. Self-interests of individuals, companies or institutions have limits, where the public interest is affected, and public interest is not a sufficient justification to violate human rights of individuals. Privacy is a high good, as confidentiality is, and damaging it would have serious side effects for society.Comment: 65 pages, 1 figure, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

Coastal adaptation pathways for a changing climate. Ebro delta case

El delta de l’Ebre és el delta més important de la península Ibèrica, constituint un espai natural amb un gran valor mediambiental, social i econòmic, però que actualment es troba en greu perill a causa del canvi climàtic. A part de la fragilitat de la regió, hi ha una sèrie d'accions i amenaces que augmenten aquesta debilitat, que són principalment les accions antròpiques. La construcció d’embassaments a la part superior reté la majoria de sediments, que haurien de ser transportats de forma natural fins a la desembocadura del riu. A causa d’aquesta retenció, el creixement vertical de la regió s’atura, perdent la seva resistència natural als processos erosius i a l’impacte de les ones, a més de ser més vulnerable a la pujada del nivell del mar (SLR). A més, problemes com l’enfonsament (a causa de la compactació de sediments), la intrusió salina en terres fèrtils, la contaminació de l’aigua dels rius, la degradació biològica i l’eutrofització afecten la qualitat ambiental i la resiliència futura de la zona. Aquest projecte analitzarà amb l’ajut de models matemàtics i de softwares (ArcGIS) quina és la capacitat defensiva actual del delta contra les tempestes (erosió de la platja i impacte d’ones) amb un llarg període de retorn, com va ser el cas de Gloria, a més d’un augment del nivell del mar. Fent això, podrem obtenir els punts calents de la regió deltaica. Aquesta anàlisi es durà a terme per a diferents escenaris socioeconòmics (SSP) i climàtics (RCP) al llarg dels anys, des del 2021 fins al 2100. D’aquesta manera, podrem observar com diferents nivells d’emissions (RCP 2.6 i RCP 8.5) afecten la resistència i la capacitat defensiva natural de la franja costanera, per tal de proposar diferents solucions i vies per a cadascun dels escenaris futurs. Per intentar combatre i eliminar aquestes amenaces, es presenten diferents intervencions, des d’enginyeria dura i suau fins a estratègies naturals per protegir o adaptar el delta a finals del segle XXI.El delta del Ebro es el más importante de la Península Ibérica, constituyendo uno de los espacios naturales de gran valor medioambiental, social y económico, pero que en la actualidad se encuentra en grave peligro debido en gran parte al cambio climático. Además de la fragilidad que posee la región, hay una serie de acciones y amenazas que están acrecentando esta debilidad que son principalmente las acciones antrópicas. La construcción de embalses en la parte alta retiene la mayoría de los sedimentos, los cuales deben ser transportados de forma natural a la desembocadura del río. Debido a esta retención, el crecimiento vertical de la región se detiene, perdiendo su resistencia natural a los procesos erosivos y al impacto de las olas, además de ser más vulnerable al aumento del nivel del mar (SLR). Además de esto, problemas como el hundimiento (debido a la compactación de sedimentos), la intrusión salina en tierras fértiles, la contaminación del agua de los ríos, la degradación biológica y la eutrofización afectan la calidad ambiental y la resiliencia futura de la zona. Este proyecto analizará con la ayuda de modelos matemáticos y de software (ArcGIS) cuál es la capacidad defensiva actual del delta frente a tormentas (erosión de playas y runup) con un largo período de retorno, como fue el caso de Gloria, además de un aumento del nivel del mar. Al hacer esto, podremos obtener los puntos calientes de la región deltaica. Este análisis se realizará para diferentes escenarios socioeconómicos (SSP) y climáticos (RCP) a lo largo de los años, de 2021 a 2100. De esta forma, podremos observar cómo diferentes niveles de emisión (RCP 2.6 y RCP 8.5) inciden en la resistencia y capacidad defensiva natural de la franja costera, así como proponer diferentes soluciones y caminos para cada uno de los escenarios futuros. Para tratar de combatir y eliminar estas amenazas, se presentan diferentes intervenciones, desde trabajos de ingeniería dura y blanda hasta estrategias naturales.The Ebro delta is the most important delta of the Iberian Peninsula, constituting one of the natural areas with great environmental, social and economic value, but which nowadays is in serious danger largely due to climate change. Apart from the region owns fragility, there are a series of actions and threats that are increasing this weakness which are mainly the anthropic actions. The construction of reservoirs in the upper part retains the majority of sediments, which should be transported naturally to the mouth of the river. Due to this retention, the vertical growth of the region is halting, losing its natural resistance to erosive processes and the impact of waves, as well as being more vulnerable to the sea level rise (SLR). Besides this, problems such as subsidence (due to the compaction of sediments), saline intrusion in fertile lands, contamination of river water, biological degradation and eutrophication affect the environmental quality and future resilience of the area. This project will analyze with the help of mathematical and software (ArcGIS) models what is the current defensive capacity of the delta against storms (beach erosion and wave runup) with a long return period, as was the case of Gloria, in addition to a rise in sea level. By doing this, we will be able to obtain the hot-spots of the deltaic region. This analysis will be carried out for different socio-economic (SSP) and climatic (RCP) scenarios throughout the years, from 2021 to 2100. In this way, we will be able to observe how different emission levels (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) affect the resistance and natural defensive capacity of the coastal fringe, as well as propose different solutions and pathways for each of the future scenarios. To try to combat and eliminate these threats, different interventions are presented, from hard and soft engineering works to natural strategies in order to protect or adapt the delta by the end of the 21st century

The Resolution of the Labor Scarcity Paradox

This paper reconciles the apparently contradictory evidence about American and British technology in the first half of the nineteenth century. Past studies have focused on the writings of a number of distinguished British engineers, who toured the United States during the 1850s and commented extensively on the highly mechanized state of the manufacturing sector. Other studies, however, have marshalled evidence that the interest rate was higher, and the aggregate manufacturing capital stock was lower, in the United States relative to Britain. We resolve this paradox by noting that British engineers were most impressed by only a few industries which relied on skilled workers. Using the 1849 Census of Manufactures, we estimate separate production functions for the skilled sector and for the remaining, less skilled manufacturing sector. We find strong relative complementarity between capital and natural resources in the skilled sector, and relative substitutability between skilled labor and capital. Using these parameters in a computable general equilibrium model of the U.S. and British economies indicates greater capital intensity (or labor scarcity) in the skilled manufacturing sector, but overall capital scarcity and higher interest rates, in the U.S. relative to Britain.