Coherent frequentism

By representing the range of fair betting odds according to a pair of confidence set estimators, dual probability measures on parameter space called frequentist posteriors secure the coherence of subjective inference without any prior distribution. The closure of the set of expected losses corresponding to the dual frequentist posteriors constrains decisions without arbitrarily forcing optimization under all circumstances. This decision theory reduces to those that maximize expected utility when the pair of frequentist posteriors is induced by an exact or approximate confidence set estimator or when an automatic reduction rule is applied to the pair. In such cases, the resulting frequentist posterior is coherent in the sense that, as a probability distribution of the parameter of interest, it satisfies the axioms of the decision-theoretic and logic-theoretic systems typically cited in support of the Bayesian posterior. Unlike the p-value, the confidence level of an interval hypothesis derived from such a measure is suitable as an estimator of the indicator of hypothesis truth since it converges in sample-space probability to 1 if the hypothesis is true or to 0 otherwise under general conditions.Comment: The confidence-measure theory of inference and decision is explicitly extended to vector parameters of interest. The derivation of upper and lower confidence levels from valid and nonconservative set estimators is formalize

GP-Localize: Persistent Mobile Robot Localization using Online Sparse Gaussian Process Observation Model

Central to robot exploration and mapping is the task of persistent localization in environmental fields characterized by spatially correlated measurements. This paper presents a Gaussian process localization (GP-Localize) algorithm that, in contrast to existing works, can exploit the spatially correlated field measurements taken during a robot's exploration (instead of relying on prior training data) for efficiently and scalably learning the GP observation model online through our proposed novel online sparse GP. As a result, GP-Localize is capable of achieving constant time and memory (i.e., independent of the size of the data) per filtering step, which demonstrates the practical feasibility of using GPs for persistent robot localization and autonomy. Empirical evaluation via simulated experiments with real-world datasets and a real robot experiment shows that GP-Localize outperforms existing GP localization algorithms.Comment: 28th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI 2014), Extended version with proofs, 10 page

Estimating the Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information in Health Economic Evaluations using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation

The Expected Value of Perfect Partial Information (EVPPI) is a decision-theoretic measure of the "cost" of parametric uncertainty in decision making used principally in health economic decision making. Despite this decision-theoretic grounding, the uptake of EVPPI calculations in practice has been slow. This is in part due to the prohibitive computational time required to estimate the EVPPI via Monte Carlo simulations. However, recent developments have demonstrated that the EVPPI can be estimated by non-parametric regression methods, which have significantly decreased the computation time required to approximate the EVPPI. Under certain circumstances, high-dimensional Gaussian Process regression is suggested, but this can still be prohibitively expensive. Applying fast computation methods developed in spatial statistics using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) and projecting from a high-dimensional into a low-dimensional input space allows us to decrease the computation time for fitting these high-dimensional Gaussian Processes, often substantially. We demonstrate that the EVPPI calculated using our method for Gaussian Process regression is in line with the standard Gaussian Process regression method and that despite the apparent methodological complexity of this new method, R functions are available in the package BCEA to implement it simply and efficiently

Coverage and Field Estimation on Bounded Domains by Diffusive Swarms

In this paper, we consider stochastic coverage of bounded domains by a diffusing swarm of robots that take local measurements of an underlying scalar field. We introduce three control methodologies with diffusion, advection, and reaction as independent control inputs. We analyze the diffusion-based control strategy using standard operator semigroup-theoretic arguments. We show that the diffusion coefficient can be chosen to be dependent only on the robots' local measurements to ensure that the swarm density converges to a function proportional to the scalar field. The boundedness of the domain precludes the need to impose assumptions on decaying properties of the scalar field at infinity. Moreover, exponential convergence of the swarm density to the equilibrium follows from properties of the spectrum of the semigroup generator. In addition, we use the proposed coverage method to construct a time-inhomogenous diffusion process and apply the observability of the heat equation to reconstruct the scalar field over the entire domain from observations of the robots' random motion over a small subset of the domain. We verify our results through simulations of the coverage scenario on a 2D domain and the field estimation scenario on a 1D domain.Comment: To appear in the proceedings of the 55th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC 2016