2,282 research outputs found
An Integrated Multi-Time-Scale Modeling for Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Deep Learning
For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point
forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary
characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to
maintain reliable operation of the electric grid rises due to the variability
of solar energy. The higher the uncertainty in the generation, the greater the
operating-reserve requirements, which translates to an increased cost of
operation. In this research work, we propose a unified architecture for
multi-time-scale predictions for intra-day solar irradiance forecasting using
recurrent neural networks (RNN) and long-short-term memory networks (LSTMs).
This paper also lays out a framework for extending this modeling approach to
intra-hour forecasting horizons thus, making it a multi-time-horizon
forecasting approach, capable of predicting intra-hour as well as intra-day
solar irradiance. We develop an end-to-end pipeline to effectuate the proposed
architecture. The performance of the prediction model is tested and validated
by the methodical implementation. The robustness of the approach is
demonstrated with case studies conducted for geographically scattered sites
across the United States. The predictions demonstrate that our proposed unified
architecture-based approach is effective for multi-time-scale solar forecasts
and achieves a lower root-mean-square prediction error when benchmarked against
the best-performing methods documented in the literature that use separate
models for each time-scale during the day. Our proposed method results in a
71.5% reduction in the mean RMSE averaged across all the test sites compared to
the ML-based best-performing method reported in the literature. Additionally,
the proposed method enables multi-time-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs,
which have a significant potential for practical industry applications in the
evolving grid.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables, under review for journal submissio
Artificial intelligence for photovoltaic systems
Photovoltaic systems have gained an extraordinary popularity in the energy generation industry. Despite the benefits, photovoltaic systems still suffer from four main drawbacks, which include low conversion efficiency, intermittent power supply, high fabrication costs and the nonlinearity of the PV system output power. To overcome these issues, various optimization and control techniques have been proposed. However, many authors relied on classical techniques, which were based on intuitive, numerical or analytical methods. More efficient optimization strategies would enhance the performance of the PV systems and decrease the cost of the energy generated. In this chapter, we provide an overview of how Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques can provide value to photovoltaic systems. Particular attention is devoted to three main areas: (1) Forecasting and modelling of meteorological data, (2) Basic modelling of solar cells and (3) Sizing of photovoltaic systems. This chapter will aim to provide a comparison between conventional techniques and the added benefits of using machine learning methods
Solar radiation estimation with neural network approach using meteorological data in Indonesia
The objective of this study is to determine the solar energy potential in Indonesia using artificial neural networks (ANNs) approach. In
this study, the meteorological data during 2005 to 2009 from 3 cities (Jakarta, Manado, Bengkulu) are used for training the neural networks and the data from 1 city (Makasar) is used for testing the estimated values.The testing data are not used in the training of the network in order to give an
indication of the performance of the system at unknown locations. Fifteen combinations of ANN models were developed and evaluated.The multi
layer perceptron ANNs model, with 7 inputs variables (average temperature, average relative humidity, average sunshine duration, longitude, latitude, latitude, month of the year) are proposed to estimate the global solar irradiation as output.To evaluate the performance of ANN models, statistical error analyses in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are conducted for testing data. The best result of MAPE are found to be 7.4% when 7 neurons were set up in the hidden layer.The result demonstrates the capability of ANN approach to generate the solar radiation estimation in Indonesia using meteorological dat
Optimal artificial neural network configurations for hourly solar irradiation estimation
Solar energy is widely used in order to generate clean electric energy. However, due to its intermittent nature, this resource is only inserted in a limited way within the electrical networks. To increase the share of solar energy in the energy balance and allow better management of its production, it is necessary to know precisely the available solar potential at a fine time step to take into account all these stochastic variations. In this paper, a comparison between different artificial neural network (ANN) configurations is elaborated to estimate the hourly solar irradiation. An investigation of the optimal neurons and layers is investigated. To this end, feedforward neural network, cascade forward neural network and fitting neural network have been applied for this purpose. In this context, we have used different meteorological parameters to estimate the hourly global solar irirradiation in the region of Laghouat, Algeria. The validation process shows that choosing the cascade forward neural network two inputs gives an R2 value equal to 97.24% and an normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) equals to 0.1678 compared to the results of three inputs, which gives an R2 value equaled to 95.54% and an NRMSE equals to 0.2252. The comparison between different existing methods in literature show the goodness of the proposed models
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