Bayesian Approximate Kernel Regression with Variable Selection

Nonlinear kernel regression models are often used in statistics and machine learning because they are more accurate than linear models. Variable selection for kernel regression models is a challenge partly because, unlike the linear regression setting, there is no clear concept of an effect size for regression coefficients. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that provides an effect size analog of each explanatory variable for Bayesian kernel regression models when the kernel is shift-invariant --- for example, the Gaussian kernel. We use function analytic properties of shift-invariant reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) to define a linear vector space that: (i) captures nonlinear structure, and (ii) can be projected onto the original explanatory variables. The projection onto the original explanatory variables serves as an analog of effect sizes. The specific function analytic property we use is that shift-invariant kernel functions can be approximated via random Fourier bases. Based on the random Fourier expansion we propose a computationally efficient class of Bayesian approximate kernel regression (BAKR) models for both nonlinear regression and binary classification for which one can compute an analog of effect sizes. We illustrate the utility of BAKR by examining two important problems in statistical genetics: genomic selection (i.e. phenotypic prediction) and association mapping (i.e. inference of significant variants or loci). State-of-the-art methods for genomic selection and association mapping are based on kernel regression and linear models, respectively. BAKR is the first method that is competitive in both settings.Comment: 22 pages, 3 figures, 3 tables; theory added; new simulations presented; references adde

Covariate dimension reduction for survival data via the Gaussian process latent variable model

The analysis of high dimensional survival data is challenging, primarily due to the problem of overfitting which occurs when spurious relationships are inferred from data that subsequently fail to exist in test data. Here we propose a novel method of extracting a low dimensional representation of covariates in survival data by combining the popular Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model (GPLVM) with a Weibull Proportional Hazards Model (WPHM). The combined model offers a flexible non-linear probabilistic method of detecting and extracting any intrinsic low dimensional structure from high dimensional data. By reducing the covariate dimension we aim to diminish the risk of overfitting and increase the robustness and accuracy with which we infer relationships between covariates and survival outcomes. In addition, we can simultaneously combine information from multiple data sources by expressing multiple datasets in terms of the same low dimensional space. We present results from several simulation studies that illustrate a reduction in overfitting and an increase in predictive performance, as well as successful detection of intrinsic dimensionality. We provide evidence that it is advantageous to combine dimensionality reduction with survival outcomes rather than performing unsupervised dimensionality reduction on its own. Finally, we use our model to analyse experimental gene expression data and detect and extract a low dimensional representation that allows us to distinguish high and low risk groups with superior accuracy compared to doing regression on the original high dimensional data

Statistical methods of SNP data analysis with applications

Various statistical methods important for genetic analysis are considered and developed. Namely, we concentrate on the multifactor dimensionality reduction, logic regression, random forests and stochastic gradient boosting. These methods and their new modifications, e.g., the MDR method with "independent rule", are used to study the risk of complex diseases such as cardiovascular ones. The roles of certain combinations of single nucleotide polymorphisms and external risk factors are examined. To perform the data analysis concerning the ischemic heart disease and myocardial infarction the supercomputer SKIF "Chebyshev" of the Lomonosov Moscow State University was employed

Ranking relations using analogies in biological and information networks

Analogical reasoning depends fundamentally on the ability to learn and generalize about relations between objects. We develop an approach to relational learning which, given a set of pairs of objects $\mathbf{S}=\{A^{(1)}:B^{(1)},A^{(2)}:B^{(2)},\ldots,A^{(N)}:B ^{(N)}\}$, measures how well other pairs A:B fit in with the set $\mathbf{S}$. Our work addresses the following question: is the relation between objects A and B analogous to those relations found in $\mathbf{S}$? Such questions are particularly relevant in information retrieval, where an investigator might want to search for analogous pairs of objects that match the query set of interest. There are many ways in which objects can be related, making the task of measuring analogies very challenging. Our approach combines a similarity measure on function spaces with Bayesian analysis to produce a ranking. It requires data containing features of the objects of interest and a link matrix specifying which relationships exist; no further attributes of such relationships are necessary. We illustrate the potential of our method on text analysis and information networks. An application on discovering functional interactions between pairs of proteins is discussed in detail, where we show that our approach can work in practice even if a small set of protein pairs is provided.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS321 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org