Theory formation by abduction : initial results of a case study based on the chemical revolution

Abduction is the process of constructing explanations. This chapter suggests that automated abduction is a key to advancing beyond the "routine theory revision" methods developed in early AI research towards automated reasoning systems capable of "world model revision" — dramatic changes in systems of beliefs such as occur in children's cognitive development and in scientific revolutions. The chapter describes a general approach to automating theory revision based upon computational methods for theory formation by abduction. The approach is based on the idea that, when an anomaly is encountered, the best course is often simply to suppress parts of the original theory thrown into question by the contradiction and to derive an explanation of the anomalous observation based on relatively solid, basic principles. This process of looking for explanations of unexpected new phenomena can lead by abductive inference to new hypotheses that can form crucial parts of a revised theory. As an illustration, the chapter shows how some of Lavoisier's key insights during the Chemical Revolution can be viewed as examples of theory formation by abduction

A comparative survey of integrated learning systems

This paper presents the duction framework for unifying the three basic forms of inference - deduction, abduction, and induction - by specifying the possible relationships and influences among them in the context of integrated learning. Special assumptive forms of inference are defined that extend the use of these inference methods, and the properties of these forms are explored. A comparison to a related inference-based learning frame work is made. Finally several existing integrated learning programs are examined in the perspective of the duction framework

Theory formation by abduction : a case study based on the chemical revolution

Abduction is the process of constructing explanations. This chapter suggests that automated abduction is a key to advancing beyond the "routine theory revision" methods developed in early AI research towards automated reasoning systems capable of "world model revision" - dramatic changes in systems of beliefs such as occur in children's cognitive development and in scientific revolutions. The chapter describes a general approach to automating theory revision based upon computational methods for theory formation by abduction. The approach is based on the idea that, when an anomaly is encountered, the best course is often simply to suppress parts of the original theory thrown into question by the contradiction and to derive an explanation of the anomalous observation based on relatively solid, basic principles. This process of looking for explanations of unexpected new phenomena can lead by abductive inference to new hypotheses that can form crucial parts of a revised theory. As an illustration, the chapter shows how some of Lavoisier's key insights during the Chemical Revolution can be viewed as examples of theory formation by abduction

Machine learning and its applications in reliability analysis systems

In this thesis, we are interested in exploring some aspects of Machine Learning (ML) and its application in the Reliability Analysis systems (RAs). We begin by investigating some ML paradigms and their- techniques, go on to discuss the possible applications of ML in improving RAs performance, and lastly give guidelines of the architecture of learning RAs. Our survey of ML covers both levels of Neural Network learning and Symbolic learning. In symbolic process learning, five types of learning and their applications are discussed: rote learning, learning from instruction, learning from analogy, learning from examples, and learning from observation and discovery. The Reliability Analysis systems (RAs) presented in this thesis are mainly designed for maintaining plant safety supported by two functions: risk analysis function, i.e., failure mode effect analysis (FMEA) ; and diagnosis function, i.e., real-time fault location (RTFL). Three approaches have been discussed in creating the RAs. According to the result of our survey, we suggest currently the best design of RAs is to embed model-based RAs, i.e., MORA (as software) in a neural network based computer system (as hardware). However, there are still some improvement which can be made through the applications of Machine Learning. By implanting the 'learning element', the MORA will become learning MORA (La MORA) system, a learning Reliability Analysis system with the power of automatic knowledge acquisition and inconsistency checking, and more. To conclude our thesis, we propose an architecture of La MORA

Towards autonomous diagnostic systems with medical imaging

Democratizing access to high quality healthcare has highlighted the need for autonomous diagnostic systems that a non-expert can use. Remote communities, first responders and even deep space explorers will come to rely on medical imaging systems that will provide them with Point of Care diagnostic capabilities. This thesis introduces the building blocks that would enable the creation of such a system. Firstly, we present a case study in order to further motivate the need and requirements of autonomous diagnostic systems. This case study primarily concerns deep space exploration where astronauts cannot rely on communication with earth-bound doctors to help them through diagnosis, nor can they make the trip back to earth for treatment. Requirements and possible solutions about the major challenges faced with such an application are discussed. Moreover, this work describes how a system can explore its perceived environment by developing a Multi Agent Reinforcement Learning method that allows for implicit communication between the agents. Under this regime agents can share the knowledge that benefits them all in achieving their individual tasks. Furthermore, we explore how systems can understand the 3D properties of 2D depicted objects in a probabilistic way. In Part II, this work explores how to reason about the extracted information in a causally enabled manner. A critical view on the applications of causality in medical imaging, and its potential uses is provided. It is then narrowed down to estimating possible future outcomes and reasoning about counterfactual outcomes by embedding data on a pseudo-Riemannian manifold and constraining the latent space by using the relativistic concept of light cones. By formalizing an approach to estimating counterfactuals, a computationally lighter alternative to the abduction-action-prediction paradigm is presented through the introduction of Deep Twin Networks. Appropriate partial identifiability constraints for categorical variables are derived and the method is applied in a series of medical tasks involving structured data, images and videos. All methods are evaluated in a wide array of synthetic and real life tasks that showcase their abilities, often achieving state-of-the-art performance or matching the existing best performance while requiring a fraction of the computational cost.Open Acces

Abductive Reasoning in Multiple Fault Diagnosis

Abductive reasoning involves generating an explanation for a given set of observations about the world. Abduction provides a good reasoning framework for many AI problems, including diagnosis, plan recognition and learning. This paper focuses on the use of abductive reasoning in diagnostic systems in which there may be more than one underlying cause for the observed symptoms. In exploring this topic, we will review and compare several different approaches, including Binary Choice Bayesian, Sequential Bayesian, Causal Model Based Abduction, Parsimonious Set Covering, and the use of First Order Logic. Throughout the paper we will use as an example a simple diagnostic problem involving automotive troubleshooting

Abductive Reasoning with the GPT-4 Language Model: Case studies from criminal investigation, medical practice, scientific research

This study evaluates the GPT-4 Large Language Model's abductive reasoning in complex fields like medical diagnostics, criminology, and cosmology. Using an interactive interview format, the AI assistant demonstrated reliability in generating and selecting hypotheses. It inferred plausible medical diagnoses based on patient data and provided potential causes and explanations in criminology and cosmology. The results highlight the potential of LLMs in complex problem-solving and the need for further research to maximize their practical applications.Comment: The article is 12 pages long and has one figure. It also includes a link to some ChatGPT dialogues that show the experiments that support the article's findings. The article will be published in V. Bambini and C. Barattieri di San Pietro (eds.), Sistemi Intelligenti, Special Section "Multidisciplinary perspectives on ChatGPT and the family of Large Language Models