A unified framework for de-duplication and population size estimation (with Discussion)

Data de-duplication is the process of finding records in one or more datasets belonging to the same entity. In this paper we tackle the de-duplication process via a latent entity model, where the observed data are perturbed versions of a set of key variables drawn from a finite population of $N$ different entities. The main novelty of our approach is to consider the population size $N$ as an unknown model parameter. As a result, one salient feature of the proposed method is the capability of the model to account for the de-duplication uncertainty in the population size estimation. As by-products of our approach we illustrate the relationships between de-duplication problems and capture-recapture models and we obtain a more adequate prior distribution on the linkage structure. Moreover we propose a novel simulation algorithm for the posterior distribution of the matching configuration based on the marginalization of the key variables at the population level. We apply our approach to two synthetic data sets comprising German names. In addition we illustrate a real data application matching records from two lists reporting victims killed in the recent Syrian conflict

A Primer on the Data Cleaning Pipeline

The availability of both structured and unstructured databases, such as electronic health data, social media data, patent data, and surveys that are often updated in real time, among others, has grown rapidly over the past decade. With this expansion, the statistical and methodological questions around data integration, or rather merging multiple data sources, has also grown. Specifically, the science of the ``data cleaning pipeline'' contains four stages that allow an analyst to perform downstream tasks, predictive analyses, or statistical analyses on ``cleaned data.'' This article provides a review of this emerging field, introducing technical terminology and commonly used methods

ON THE DYNAMICS OF THE ISRAELI-ARAB ARMS RACE

This paper investigates the causal relationships between the military expenditures and military burden of the four major sides of the Israeli-Arab conflict, namely, Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria over the period 1960-2004. We utilize both the causality test suggested by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition method of Pesaran and Shin (1998). Our findings suggest weak causality that runs usually from Israel’s to Arab’s military spending. The strongest links are between Israel and Syria that are still in a state of enmity. No causality was detected between Israel’s and Jordan’s military spending.Arms race, Middle East, Israeli-Arab conflict, Causality, Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition

On the Dynamics of the Israeli-Arab Arms Race

This paper investigates the causal relationships between the military expenditures and military burden of the four major sides of the Israeli-Arab conflict, namely, Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria over the period 1960-2004. We utilize both the causality test suggested by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition method of Pesaran and Shin (1998). Our findings suggest weak causality that runs usually from Israel’s to Arab’s military spending. The strongest links are between Israel and Syria that are still in a state of enmity. No causality was detected between Israel’s and Jordan’s military spending.Arms race, Middle East, Israeli-Arab conflict, Causality, Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition

Seminar Users in the Arabic Twitter Sphere

We introduce the notion of "seminar users", who are social media users engaged in propaganda in support of a political entity. We develop a framework that can identify such users with 84.4% precision and 76.1% recall. While our dataset is from the Arab region, omitting language-specific features has only a minor impact on classification performance, and thus, our approach could work for detecting seminar users in other parts of the world and in other languages. We further explored a controversial political topic to observe the prevalence and potential potency of such users. In our case study, we found that 25% of the users engaged in the topic are in fact seminar users and their tweets make nearly a third of the on-topic tweets. Moreover, they are often successful in affecting mainstream discourse with coordinated hashtag campaigns.Comment: to appear in SocInfo 201

What is the reason for the divergent responses of Member States to the Refugee Crisis? A critique of the Common European Asylum System during the 2015 Refugee Crisis

This study seeks to reflect an analytical exercise to find out, in detail, the reason for the divergent responses of Member States to the Refugee crisis during the years 2015 to 2017. Furthermore, it had secondary objectives: i) to Investigate the means of communication that can and might prevent future crises; ii) To investigate the reasons for the differentiation in strategy between member states for internal and foreign policy reasons. The work intends to analyse in detail the different behaviours of Member States towards the Refugee Crisis to develop a future proposal to avoid such a gap in the European asylum system and avoid a divergent response of Member States towards the Humanitarian Crisis shortly. In this Master's dissertation, we made a combination of methods and techniques used in social sciences. The procedure for the collection and processing of data was based on: i) bibliographic, documentary and news analysis; ii) analysis of available statistical data on migration in the European Union, and more in-depth for the following Member States: Germany, Italy and Hungary; iii) direct interviews with an individual actor. As a result of the war in Syria and Iraq, the civil war in Afghanistan, the dictatorial regime in Eritrea or as a result of the political, religious and human rights violations pressures carried out by the self-proclaimed Islamic State, the instability experienced in the Middle East has produced one of the most significant migratory movements recorded towards Europe. In 2015 more than 1,300,000 asylum seekers entered European territory via Greece and Italy, by sea and land, and it is estimated that more than 3,700 people died at the Mediterranean Sea crossing. This migratory movement has provoked two types of reactions. On the one hand, those who felt threatened found answers in the growing extremist and populist movements. And on the other, those who have asked European leaders for a more outstanding commitment to respect human rights and our international obligations in protecting those seeking refuge in Europe.Este estudo procura reflectir um exercício analítico para descobrir, em pormenor, a razão das respostas divergentes dos Estados-Membros à crise dos refugiados durante os anos de 2015 a 2017. Além disso, tinha objectivos secundários: i) investigar os meios de comunicação que podem e podem prevenir crises futuras; ii) investigar as razões para a diferenciação da estratégia entre os estados membros por razões de política interna e externa. O trabalho pretende analisar em pormenor os diferentes comportamentos dos Estados-Membros face à Crise dos Refugiados, a fim de desenvolver uma proposta futura para evitar uma tal lacuna no sistema de asilo europeu e evitar uma resposta divergente dos Estados-Membros face à Crise Humanitária em breve. Nesta dissertação de mestrado, fizemos uma combinação de métodos e técnicas utilizadas nas ciências sociais. O procedimento de recolha e tratamento de dados baseou-se em: i) análise bibliográfica, documental e jornalística; ii) análise dos dados estatísticos disponíveis sobre migração na União Europeia, e mais aprofundada para os seguintes Estados Membros: Alemanha, Itália e Hungria; iii) entrevistas directas com um actor individual. Em consequência da guerra na Síria e no Iraque, da guerra civil no Afeganistão, do regime ditatorial na Eritreia ou em resultado das pressões políticas, religiosas e de violação dos direitos humanos realizadas pelo autoproclamado Estado Islâmico, a instabilidade vivida no Médio Oriente produziu um dos maiores movimentos migratórios registados em direção à Europa. No ano de 2015 deram entrada em território europeu, via Grécia e Itália, por mar e terra, mais de 1.300.000 requerentes de asilo e estima-se que tenham morrido na travessia no Mar Mediterrâneo mais de 3.700 pessoas. Este movimento migratório provocou dois tipos de reação. De um lado, aqueles que se sentiram ameaçados e encontraram respostas nos crescentes movimentos extremistas e populistas. E por outro, aqueles que pediram aos líderes europeus um maior compromisso pelo respeito pelos Direitos Humanos e pelas nossas obrigações internacionais na proteção daqueles que procuram refúgio na Europa

Blockchain as a chain for humanitarian aid: transforming the lives of refugees

Updated United Nations data shows that 79.5 million people worldwide were forcibly displaced already by the end of 2019. These were already record-setting numbers of refugees and displaced people around the world. Now they face a new unimaginable and threatening emergency: the global health crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the consequent economic crisis it has generated. Refugees are amongst the most vulnerable group who now are facing also a pandemic of poverty. It is fair to say that 2020 has been one of the toughest years in history. The present year has also been characterized by a succession of catastrophes and natural disasters, which aggravated a world already severally affected by the Covid-19 crisis. Large emergencies and extreme situations demand for coordination, trust and efficiency. We are currently entering a new era of disruptive technology that will revolutionize the industry, and blockchain holds vast promise for a transformation of the humanitarian sector. This thesis explores the use of blockchain technology to improve effectiveness of contemporary humanitarian aid in the field of refugees and displaced people by focusing on two specific use-case opportunities: digital identity management and aid delivery tracking. This dissertation outlines the use cases of blockchain to help mitigate the impact and strain of the refugee crisis for both refugees and host countries alike. The aim is to reflect on the improvements and pitfalls related to the adaptation of this disruptive technology in the field.Dados atualizados das Nações Unidas mostram que 79,5 milhões de pessoas em todo o mundo foram deslocadas à força no final de 2019. Esses já eram números recordes de refugiados e pessoas deslocadas em todo o mundo. Agora eles enfrentam uma nova emergência inimaginável e ameaçadora: a crise de saúde global causada pela pandemia de Covid-19 e a consequente crise econômica que ela gerou. Os refugiados estão entre o grupo mais vulnerável que agora enfrenta também uma pandemia de pobreza. 2020 foi um dos anos mais difíceis da história. O presente ano também se caracterizou por uma sucessão de catástrofes e desastres naturais, que agravaram um mundo já seriamente afetado pela crise da Covid-19. Grandes emergências e situações extremas exigem coordenação, confiança e eficiência. Atualmente, estamos a entrar em uma nova era de tecnologia disruptiva que revolucionará a indústria, e o "blockchain" é uma grande promessa para a transformação do setor humanitário. Esta tese explora o uso da tecnologia blockchain para melhorar a eficácia da ajuda humanitária contemporânea no campo de refugiados e pessoas deslocadas, concentrando-se em duas oportunidades de casos de uso específicos: gerenciamento de identidade digital e rastreamento de entrega de ajuda. Esta dissertação descreve os casos de uso de "blockchain" para ajudar a mitigar o impacto e a tensão da crise de refugiados para refugiados e países anfitriões. O objetivo é refletir sobre as melhorias e armadilhas relacionadas à adaptação dessa tecnologia disruptiva no campo