Mining large-scale human mobility data for long-term crime prediction

Traditional crime prediction models based on census data are limited, as they fail to capture the complexity and dynamics of human activity. With the rise of ubiquitous computing, there is the opportunity to improve such models with data that make for better proxies of human presence in cities. In this paper, we leverage large human mobility data to craft an extensive set of features for crime prediction, as informed by theories in criminology and urban studies. We employ averaging and boosting ensemble techniques from machine learning, to investigate their power in predicting yearly counts for different types of crimes occurring in New York City at census tract level. Our study shows that spatial and spatio-temporal features derived from Foursquare venues and checkins, subway rides, and taxi rides, improve the baseline models relying on census and POI data. The proposed models achieve absolute R^2 metrics of up to 65% (on a geographical out-of-sample test set) and up to 89% (on a temporal out-of-sample test set). This proves that, next to the residential population of an area, the ambient population there is strongly predictive of the area's crime levels. We deep-dive into the main crime categories, and find that the predictive gain of the human dynamics features varies across crime types: such features bring the biggest boost in case of grand larcenies, whereas assaults are already well predicted by the census features. Furthermore, we identify and discuss top predictive features for the main crime categories. These results offer valuable insights for those responsible for urban policy or law enforcement

Cell Towers as Urban Sensors: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Mobile Phone Location Data

Understanding urban dynamics and human mobility patterns not only benefits a wide range of real-world applications (e.g., business site selection, public transit planning), but also helps address many urgent issues caused by the rapid urbanization processes (e.g., population explosion, congestion, pollution). In the past few years, given the pervasive usage of mobile devices, call detail records collected by mobile network operators has been widely used in urban dynamics and human mobility studies. However, the derived knowledge might be strongly biased due to the uneven distribution of people’s phone communication activities in space and time. This dissertation research applies different analytical methods to better understand human activity and urban environment, as well as their interactions, mainly based on a new type of data source: actively tracked mobile phone location data. In particular, this dissertation research achieves three main research objectives. First, this research develops visualization and analysis approaches to uncover hidden urban dynamics patterns from actively tracked mobile phone location data. Second, this research designs quantitative methods to evaluate the representativeness issue of call detail record data. Third, this research develops an appropriate approach to evaluate the performance of different types of tracking data in urban dynamics research. The major contributions of this dissertation research include: 1) uncovering the dynamics of stay/move activities and distance decay effects, and the changing human mobility patterns based on several mobility indicators derived from actively tracked mobile phone location data; 2) taking the first step to evaluate the representativeness and effectiveness of call detail record and revealing its bias in human mobility research; and 3) extracting and comparing urban-level population movement patterns derived from three different types of tracking data as well as their pros and cons in urban population movement analysis

A statistical approach for studying urban human dynamics

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor in Information Management, specialization in Geographic Information SystemsThis doctoral dissertation proposed several statistical approaches to analyse urban dynamics with aiming to provide tools for decision making processes and urban studies. It assumed that human activity and human mobility compose urban dynamics. Initially, it studied geolocated social media data and considered them as a proxy for where and when people carry out what it is defined as the human activity. It employed techniques associated with generalised linear models, functional data analysis, hierarchical clustering, and epidemic data, to explain the spatio-temporal distribution of the places where people interact with their social networks. Afterwards, to understand the mobility in urban environments, data coming from an underground railway system were used. The information was considered repeated daily measurements to capture the regularity of human behaviour. By implementing methods from functional principal components data analysis and hierarchical clustering, it was possible to describe the system and identify human mobility patterns

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Urban Human Mobility

The modeling of human mobility is adopting new directions due to the increasing availability of big data sources from human activity. These sources enclose digital information about daily visited locations of a large number of individuals. Examples of these data include: mobile phone calls, credit card transactions, bank notes dispersal, check-ins in internet applications, among several others. In this study, we consider the data obtained from smart subway fare card transactions to characterize and model urban mobility patterns. We present a simple mobility model for predicting peoples’ visited locations using the popularity of places in the city as an interaction parameter between different individuals. This ingredient is sufficient to reproduce several characteristics of the observed travel behavior such as: the number of trips between different locations in the city, the exploration of new places and the frequency of individual visits of a particular location. Moreover, we indicate the limitations of the proposed model and discuss open questions in the current state of the art statistical models of human mobility

Geo-Spotting: Mining Online Location-based Services for Optimal Retail Store Placement

The problem of identifying the optimal location for a new retail store has been the focus of past research, especially in the field of land economy, due to its importance in the success of a business. Traditional approaches to the problem have factored in demographics, revenue and aggregated human flow statistics from nearby or remote areas. However, the acquisition of relevant data is usually expensive. With the growth of location-based social networks, fine grained data describing user mobility and popularity of places has recently become attainable. In this paper we study the predictive power of various machine learning features on the popularity of retail stores in the city through the use of a dataset collected from Foursquare in New York. The features we mine are based on two general signals: geographic, where features are formulated according to the types and density of nearby places, and user mobility, which includes transitions between venues or the incoming flow of mobile users from distant areas. Our evaluation suggests that the best performing features are common across the three different commercial chains considered in the analysis, although variations may exist too, as explained by heterogeneities in the way retail facilities attract users. We also show that performance improves significantly when combining multiple features in supervised learning algorithms, suggesting that the retail success of a business may depend on multiple factors.Comment: Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, Chicago, 2013, Pages 793-80

Considering context and dynamics: A classification of transit-orientated development for New York City

Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) is a widely recognised planning strategy for encouraging the use of mass and active transport over other less sustainable modes. Typological approaches to TOD areas can be utilised to either retrospectively or prospectively assist urban planners with evidence-based information on the delivery or monitoring of TOD. However, existing studies aiming to create TOD typologies overwhelmingly concentrate input measures around three dimensions of: density, diversity and design; which might be argued as not effectively capturing a fuller picture of context. Moreover, such emphasis on static attributes overlooks the importance of human mobility patterns that are signatures of the dynamics of cities. This study proposes a framework to address this research gap by enhancing a conventional TOD typology through the addition of measures detailing the spatiotemporal dynamics of activity at transit stations; implemented for the selected case study area, New York City