Scalable Deep Traffic Flow Neural Networks for Urban Traffic Congestion Prediction

Tracking congestion throughout the network road is a critical component of Intelligent transportation network management systems. Understanding how the traffic flows and short-term prediction of congestion occurrence due to rush-hour or incidents can be beneficial to such systems to effectively manage and direct the traffic to the most appropriate detours. Many of the current traffic flow prediction systems are designed by utilizing a central processing component where the prediction is carried out through aggregation of the information gathered from all measuring stations. However, centralized systems are not scalable and fail provide real-time feedback to the system whereas in a decentralized scheme, each node is responsible to predict its own short-term congestion based on the local current measurements in neighboring nodes. We propose a decentralized deep learning-based method where each node accurately predicts its own congestion state in real-time based on the congestion state of the neighboring stations. Moreover, historical data from the deployment site is not required, which makes the proposed method more suitable for newly installed stations. In order to achieve higher performance, we introduce a regularized Euclidean loss function that favors high congestion samples over low congestion samples to avoid the impact of the unbalanced training dataset. A novel dataset for this purpose is designed based on the traffic data obtained from traffic control stations in northern California. Extensive experiments conducted on the designed benchmark reflect a successful congestion prediction

Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks with Uncertainty Quantification for Traffic Incident Risk Prediction

Predicting traffic incident risks at granular spatiotemporal levels is challenging. The datasets predominantly feature zero values, indicating no incidents, with sporadic high-risk values for severe incidents. Notably, a majority of current models, especially deep learning methods, focus solely on estimating risk values, overlooking the uncertainties arising from the inherently unpredictable nature of incidents. To tackle this challenge, we introduce the Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Tweedie Graph Neural Networks (STZITD-GNNs). Our model merges the reliability of traditional statistical models with the flexibility of graph neural networks, aiming to precisely quantify uncertainties associated with road-level traffic incident risks. This model strategically employs a compound model from the Tweedie family, as a Poisson distribution to model risk frequency and a Gamma distribution to account for incident severity. Furthermore, a zero-inflated component helps to identify the non-incident risk scenarios. As a result, the STZITD-GNNs effectively capture the dataset's skewed distribution, placing emphasis on infrequent but impactful severe incidents. Empirical tests using real-world traffic data from London, UK, demonstrate that our model excels beyond current benchmarks. The forte of STZITD-GNN resides not only in its accuracy but also in its adeptness at curtailing uncertainties, delivering robust predictions over short (7 days) and extended (14 days) timeframes

Interactive, multi-purpose traffic prediction platform using connected vehicles dataset

Traffic congestion is a perennial issue because of the increasing traffic demand yet limited budget for maintaining current transportation infrastructure; let alone expanding them. Many congestion management techniques require timely and accurate traffic estimation and prediction. Examples of such techniques include incident management, real-time routing, and providing accurate trip information based on historical data. In this dissertation, a speech-powered traffic prediction platform is proposed, which deploys a new deep learning algorithm for traffic prediction using Connected Vehicles (CV) data. To speed-up traffic forecasting, a Graph Convolution -- Gated Recurrent Unit (GC-GRU) architecture is proposed and analysis of its performance on tabular data is compared to state-of-the-art models. GC-GRU's Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was very close to Transformer (3.16 vs 3.12) while achieving the fastest inference time and a six-fold faster training time than Transformer, although Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) was the fastest in training. Such improved performance in traffic prediction with a shorter inference time and competitive training time allows the proposed architecture to better cater to real-time applications. This is the first study to demonstrate the advantage of using multiscale approach by combining CV data with conventional sources such as Waze and probe data. CV data was better at detecting short duration, Jam and stand-still incidents and detected them earlier as compared to probe. CV data excelled at detecting minor incidents with a 90 percent detection rate versus 20 percent for probes and detecting them 3 minutes faster. To process the big CV data faster, a new algorithm is proposed to extract the spatial and temporal features from the CSV files into a Multiscale Data Analysis (MDA). The algorithm also leverages Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) using the Nvidia Rapids framework and Dask parallel cluster in Python. The results show a seventy-fold speedup in the data Extract, Transform, Load (ETL) of the CV data for the State of Missouri of an entire day for all the unique CV journeys (reducing the processing time from about 48 hours to 25 minutes). The processed data is then fed into a customized UNet model that learns highlevel traffic features from network-level images to predict large-scale, multi-route, speed and volume of CVs. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed model are evaluated by taking different road types, times of day and image snippets of the developed model and comparable benchmarks. To visually analyze the historical traffic data and the results of the prediction model, an interactive web application powered by speech queries is built to offer accurate and fast insights of traffic performance, and thus, allow for better positioning of traffic control strategies. The product of this dissertation can be seamlessly deployed by transportation authorities to understand and manage congestions in a timely manner.Includes bibliographical references

Spatio-temporal traffic anomaly detection for urban networks

Urban road networks are often affected by disruptions such as accidents and roadworks, giving rise to congestion and delays, which can, in turn, create a wide range of negative impacts to the economy, environment, safety and security. Accurate detection of the onset of traffic anomalies, specifically Recurrent Congestion (RC) and Nonrecurrent Congestion (NRC) in the traffic networks, is an important ITS function to facilitate proactive intervention measures to reduce the level of severity of congestion. A substantial body of literature is dedicated to models with varying levels of complexity that attempt to identify such anomalies. Given the complexity of the problem, however, very less effort is dedicated to the development of methods that attempt to detect traffic anomalies using spatio-temporal features. Driven both by the recent advances in deep learning techniques and the development of Traffic Incident Management Systems (TIMS), the aim of this research is to develop novel traffic anomaly detection models that can incorporate both spatial and temporal traffic information to detect traffic anomalies at a network level. This thesis first reviews the state of the art in traffic anomaly detection techniques, including the existing methods and emerging machine learning and deep learning methods, before identifying the gaps in the current understanding of traffic anomaly and its detection. One of the problems in terms of adapting the deep learning models to traffic anomaly detection is the translation of time series traffic data from multiple locations to the format necessary for the deep learning model to learn the spatial and temporal features effectively. To address this challenging problem and build a systematic traffic anomaly detection method at a network level, this thesis proposes a methodological framework consisting of (a) the translation layer (which is designed to translate the time series traffic data from multiple locations over the road network into a desired format with spatial and temporal features), (b) detection methods and (c) localisation. This methodological framework is subsequently tested for early RC detection and NRC detection. Three translation layers including connectivity matrix, geographical grid translation and spatial temporal translation are presented and evaluated for both RC and NRC detection. The early RC detection approach is a deep learning based method that combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The NRC detection, on the other hand, involves only the application of the CNN. The performance of the proposed approach is compared against other conventional congestion detection methods, using a comprehensive evaluation framework that includes metrics such as detection rates and false positive rates, and the sensitivity analysis of time windows as well as prediction horizons. The conventional congestion detection methods used for the comparison include Multilayer Perceptron, Random Forest and Gradient Boost Classifier, all of which are commonly used in the literature. Real-world traffic data from the City of Bath are used for the comparative analysis of RC, while traffic data in conjunction with incident data extracted from Central London are used for NRC detection. The results show that while the connectivity matrix may be capable of extracting features of a small network, the increased sparsity in the matrix in a large network reduces its effectiveness in feature learning compared to geographical grid translation. The results also indicate that the proposed deep learning method demonstrates superior detection accuracy compared to alternative methods and that it can detect recurrent congestion as early as one hour ahead with acceptable accuracy. The proposed method is capable of being implemented within a real-world ITS system making use of traffic sensor data, thereby providing a practically useful tool for road network managers to manage traffic proactively. In addition, the results demonstrate that a deep learning-based approach may improve the accuracy of incident detection and locate traffic anomalies precisely, especially in a large urban network. Finally, the framework is further tested for robustness in terms of network topology, sensor faults and missing data. The robustness analysis demonstrates that the proposed traffic anomaly detection approaches are transferable to different sizes of road networks, and that they are robust in the presence of sensor faults and missing data.Open Acces

Mathematical Model and Cloud Computing of Road Network Operations under Non-Recurrent Events

Optimal traffic control under incident-driven congestion is crucial for road safety and maintaining network performance. Over the last decade, prediction and simulation of road traffic play important roles in network operation. This dissertation focuses on development of a machine learning-based prediction model, a stochastic cell transmission model (CTM), and an optimisation model. Numerical studies were performed to evaluate the proposed models. The results indicate that proposed models are helpful for road management during road incidents