An Account of the Systematic Error in Judging What Is Reachable

An account of the postural determinants of perceived reachability is proposed to explain systematic overestimations of the distance at which an object is perceived to be reachable. In this account, these errors are due to a mapping of the limits of prehensile space onto a person\u27s perceived region of maximum stretchability, in the context of a whole-body engagement. In support of this account, 6 experiments on the judged reachability of both static and dynamic objects are reported. We tentatively conclude that the mental imagery of action is grounded and calibrated in reference to multiple skeletal degrees of behavioral freedom. Accordingly, this calibration is a source of systematic error in reachability judgments

FACTORS INFLUENCING THE ACCURACY OF TASK COMPLETION TIME ESTIMATES

Whilst considerable research has found that people tend to underestimate their task completion times (e.g., Buehler et al., 1994), factors that might influence the accuracy of temporal predictions have received little empirical treatment. The research presented in this thesis identified two distinct factors that mediated time estimation accuracy and bias. One factor was task duration, whereas the other factor was the person’s prior experience of the task. There was evidence that having prior experience of performing all or a substantial part of the same task enabled participants to more accurately estimate its duration. Additionally, predictions were more accurate when participants viewed tasks before making time estimates. Contrary to the theory of the planning fallacy (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979), these findings suggest that people do take account of their previous task performance, and use such distributional information to good effect. However, there was evidence of time prediction bias when unrelated tasks were completed beforehand, suggesting that erroneous information about previous task performance was used when making a subsequent estimate. The directional nature of time estimation bias was also highlighted in the present research. In general, there was some evidence of temporal overestimation on tasks with a duration of up to four or five minutes, whereas participants tended to underestimate their completion times on tasks that took between eight and 16 minutes to complete. These findings indicate that task duration influences the direction in which time estimates are biased (i.e., under or overestimation), with the temporal underestimation indicative of the planning fallacy occurring on tasks of at least eight minutes' duration. The present research has potential implications for task duration estimation in everyday life, and outlines conditions under which prediction bias can be reduced. The present findings are discussed in relation to the theory of the planning fallacy and the potential role of cognitive judgemental heuristics in determining temporal misestimation

Relationship between estimation and real motor performance in school-age children

The relationship between estimated and real motor competences was analyzed for several tasks. Participants were 303 children (160 boys and 143 girls), which had between 6 and 10 years of age (M=8.63, SD=1.16). None of the children presented developmental difficulties or learning disabilities, and all attended age-appropriate classes. Children were divided into three groups according to their age: group 1 (N= 102; age range: 6.48-8.01 years); group 2 (N= 101; age range: 8.02-9.22 years); and group 3 (N=100; age range: 9.24-10.93 years). Children were asked to predict their maximum distance for a locomotor, a manipulative, and a balance task, prior to performing those tasks. Children’s estimations were compared with their real performance to determine their accuracy. Children had, in general, a tendency to overestimate their performance (standing long jump: 56.11%, kicking: 63.37%, throwing: 73.60%, and Walking Backwards (WB) on a balance beam: 45.21%), and older children tended to be more accurate, except for the manipulative tasks. Furthermore, the relationship between estimation and real performance in children with different levels of motor coordination (Köperkoordinationstest für Kinder, KTK) was analyzed. The 75 children with the highest score comprised the Highest Motor Coordination (HMC) group, and the 78 children with the lowest score were placed in the Lowest Motor Coordination (LMC) group. There was a tendency for LMC and HMC children to overestimate their skills at all tasks, except for the HMC group at the WB task. Children with the HMC level tended to be more accurate when predicting their motor performance; however, differences in absolute percent error were only significant for the throwing and WB tasks. In conclusion, children display a tendency to overestimate their performance independently of their motor coordination level and task. This fact may be determinant to the development of their motor competences, since they are more likely to engage and persist in motor tasks, but it might also increase the occurrence of unintended injuries.O objetivo principal deste estudo foi analisar a relação entre a estimativa e a competência motora real, para várias tarefas envolvendo habilidade motoras fundamentais, em 303 crianças (160 rapazes e 143 raparigas) com idades compreendidas entre os 6 e os 10 anos (M=8.43, DP=1.16). As crianças frequentavam o 1.º ciclo e não apresentavam alterações no desenvolvimento e na aprendizagem. As crianças foram divididas em três grupos de acordo com a sua idade: grupo 1 (N= 102; 6.48-8.01 anos); grupo 2 (N= 101; 8.02-9.22 anos) e grupo 3 (N=100; 9.24-10.93 anos). Foi solicitado às crianças para estimarem a distância máxima que julgavam conseguir antes de executar uma tarefa: locomotora (saltar em comprimento), manipulativa (lançar e chutar uma bola para uma baliza) e estabilizadora (caminhar à retaguarda numa trave de equilíbrio com 6 cm de largura, 3 cm de altura e 3 m de comprimento). As suas estimativas foram comparadas com o seu desempenho motor real para determinar a precisão nas tarefas. As crianças deste estudo mostraram uma tendência para sobrestimar as suas habilidades motoras (saltar: 56.11%, chutar: 63.37%, lançar: 73.60%, caminhar à retaguarda numa trave: 45.21%) e as crianças mais velhas foram mais precisas nas suas estimativas, com exceção das tarefas manipulativas. Adicionalmente, este estudo pretendeu explorar se as estimativas das crianças, para as mesmas tarefas motoras, estavam relacionadas com o seu nível de coordenação motora. Com base no teste de coordenação motora Köperkoordinationstest für Kinder, as 75 crianças com a pontuação mais alta (quartil superior) e as 78 crianças com a pontuação mais baixa (quartil inferior) foram selecionadas para este objetivo; formaram, respectivamente, o grupo das crianças com alta coordenação motora (ACM) e o grupo das crianças com baixa coordenação motora (BCM). As crianças sobrestimaram as suas competências, exceto o grupo com ACM na tarefa de caminhar à retaguarda, e o grupo das crianças com BCM apresentou um erro percentual absoluto superior para todas as tarefas, mas apenas significativo para o lançamento e caminhar na trave. Em conclusão, as crianças tendem a sobreestimar as suas reais competências motoras independentemente da tarefa e do seu nível de coordenação. Esta constatação pode ser determinante no que respeita ao desenvolvimento das competências motoras, uma vez que as crianças serão mais propensas a se envolver e persistir em tarefas motoras, no entanto, e por outro lado, poderá levar a criança a colocar-se em situações de risco e originar a ocorrência de lesões não intencionais

Improving Dental Experiences by Using Virtual Reality Distraction: A Simulation Study

Dental anxiety creates significant problems for both patients and the dental profession. Some distraction interventions are already used by healthcare professionals to help patients cope with unpleasant procedures. The present study is novel because it a) builds on evidence that natural scenery is beneficial for patients, and b) uses a Virtual Reality (VR) representation of nature to distract participants. Extending previous work that has investigated pain and anxiety during treatment, c) we also consider the longer term effects in terms of more positive memories of the treatment, building on a cognitive theory of memory (Elaborated Intrusions). Participants (n = 69) took part in a simulated dental experience and were randomly assigned to one of three VR conditions (active vs. passive vs. control). In addition, participants were distinguished into high and low dentally anxious according to a median split resulting in a 362 between-subjects design. VR distraction in a simulated dental context affected memories a week later. The VR distraction had effects not only on concurrent experiences, such as perceived control, but longitudinally upon the vividness of memories after the dental experience had ended. Participants with higher dental anxiety (for whom the dental procedures were presumably more aversive) showed a greater reduction in memory vividness than lower dental-anxiety participants. This study thus suggests that VR distractions can be considered as a relevant intervention for cycles of care in which people’s previous experiences affect their behaviour for future events

Snowfall events in the Cantabrian Mountains of northwestern Spain: WRF multiphysics ensemble assessment based on ground and multi-satellite observations

[EN] Snowfall in elevated areas of the mid-latitudes has a strong impact on infrastructure, freshwater availability, and the climate system. The Cantabrian Mountains of the northwestern Iberian Peninsula are very vulnerable to climate change because of their moderate altitudes, which limits their snowfall. Monitoring snow events is essential for the evaluation of weather and climate prediction models. However, measurement networks are scarce in mountainous areas and have great uncertainties because of blizzards. In this study, a multiphysics ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was designed using three microphysics and two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes to simulate nine snowfall events in the Cantabrian Mountains during autumn and winter 2021–2022. The WRF was validated using several snow characteristics, such as liquid water equivalent, snow cover, and snow depth. Liquid water equivalent was evaluated using snow-gauge networks and satellite products in an assessment of snow cover. In addition, a monitoring network of webcams and snow poles was implemented, improving the low density of snow observations in the mountains. The results showed good model performance for detection of snow cover and slight overestimation of liquid water equivalent and snow thickness, which may have been caused by under-catchment that is generally an effect of wind on the measurement systems and by snow compaction, respectively. Morrison microphysics and Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN PBL) yielded better results for liquid water equivalent at higher altitudes and output greater snow cover. The results help determine the best configurations for snow modelling in the study area to develop future studies of the spatiotemporal patterns of snow distribution.S

Awareness of Physical Activity Levels and Sedentary Behaviour: An Assessment of Awareness of Physical Activity Levels and Sedentary Behaviour Among Parents and Children

The purpose of this study was to assess awareness of physical activity and sedentary behaviour among parents and children aged 10-13 years. Associations between awareness and factors including age, BMI, gender, and obesity status were also examined. A total of 53 parent-child dyads participated in the study. Agreement between parent and child subjective measures (self-report) and objectively measured physical activity was examined to determine awareness. Most parents (87%) and children (83%) overestimated child moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) beyond 30 minutes/day. The majority of parents (87%) and children (85%) also underestimated child sedentary behaviour by at least 3 hours/day. Older children were more likely to overestimate physical activity and underestimate sedentary behaviour than younger children. This study highlighted the lack of awareness among parents and children regarding child physical activity and sedentary behaviour. Health promotion efforts should focus on raising awareness levels among parents and children to initiate behaviour change

Group membership and racial bias modulate the temporal estimation of in-group/out-group body movements

Social group categorization has been mainly studied in relation to ownership manipulations involving highly-salient multisensory cues. Here, we propose a novel paradigm that can implicitly activate the embodiment process in the presence of group affiliation information, whilst participants complete a task irrelevant to social categorization. Ethnically White participants watched videos of White- and Black-skinned models writing a proverb. The writing was interrupted 7, 4 or 1 s before completion. Participants were tasked with estimating the residual duration following interruption. A video showing only hand kinematic traces acted as a control condition. Residual duration estimates for out-group and control videos were significantly lower than those for in-group videos only for the longest duration. Moreover, stronger implicit racial bias was negatively correlated to estimates of residual duration for out-group videos. The underestimation bias for the out-group condition might be mediated by implicit embodiment, affective and attentional processes, and finalized to a rapid out-group categorization

The Capability to Align Estimated Performance with Actual Performance: Insights from Physical & Cognitive Performance Contexts

Discrepancies between estimated and actual performance occur daily in both normative and performance based tasks. This is synonymous with a type of cognitive bias known as the Dunning-Kruger Effect (DKE). In this thesis, Chapter 2 examined the existing literature on estimation and performance alignment and DKEs using systematic and meta-analytical procedures. Findings identified a small-moderate correlation in the ability to align estimation with actual performance. In DKE terms, quartile 1 performers overestimated, while quartile 4 underestimated. Alignment correlations were also found to be moderated by methodological and task factors, but not participant characteristics. Chapter 3 assessed DKE prevalence and whether sporting experience, the time point of estimation, and reference group moderated trends in the physical tasks of Sprint and Vertical Jump. Notwithstanding DKE presence, trends were affected by time point of estimation. Estimation error was not related to current or previous sporting experience in either task. Chapter 4 examined DKEs in the cognitive contexts of the Stroop and Tower of Hanoi tasks, and assessed whether estimation error was moderated by time point of estimation, reference group, task difficulty, feedback, and efficacy. For both tasks, pre-task efficacy predicted estimation error, and time point of estimation affected estimation, with increases and decreases post-task in the Stroop and Tower of Hanoi respectively. Together, findings highlight DKE prevalence in multiple task contexts. DKE trends were moderated by task and methodological characteristics. Underlying mechanisms appear to implicate metacognitive skill as well as chronic-self views and pre-task efficacy. Increasing metacognitive skill and performance feedback is identified as a key strategy for error prevention and mitigation. Identifying DKE consequences and interventions that improve estimation-performance alignment are important future directions

Four Essays on Tax Misperception

Die vorliegende Dissertation besteht aus vier Kapiteln zum Thema Steuerfehlwahrnehmung. Kapitel 1 gibt einen Überblick über die bisherige Literatur und systematisiert sie durch die Entwicklung des Behavioral Taxpayer Response Model. Das Ausmaß der Steuerfehlwahrnehmung wird u.a. durch die Verfügbarkeit von Informationen und persönliche Merkmale beeinflusst. Auch wenn Steuerinformationen verfügbar sind, schätzen die Steuerpflichtigen die Steuerlast falsch ein, weil sie sich in einem begrenzten Maße rational verhalten. Die umfangreiche Literatur zeigt auch, dass es nur wenig Literatur in Bezug auf Unternehmen gibt. Wir schließen diese Forschungslücke in Kapitel 2, indem wir die Fehlwahrnehmung durch Unternehmen in Deutschland analysieren. Um Datenbeschränkungen zu überwinden, verwenden wir einen innovativen Ansatz, der robuste Schätzungen liefert. Im Allgemeinen nehmen die Unternehmen ihre durchschnittlichen Steuersätze und Grenzsteuersätze deutlich verzerrt wahr und haben Probleme mit dem Konzept des Grenzsteuersatzes. Fehlwahrnehmungen werden tendenziell von der Komplexität, dem Steuerwissen und der Unzufriedenheit mit dem Steuersystem beeinflusst. Im Zusammenhang mit der Vermögensbesteuerung zeigen wir in Kapitel 3 anhand eines Umfrageexperiments, dass die Fehlwahrnehmung der jährlichen Vermögensteuer aufgrund ihrer mathematischen Komplexität zu einer verzerrten Präferenz führt. Die Information über die tatsächliche Steuerbelastung führt zu deutlich niedrigeren präferierten Steuersätzen. In dem abschließenden Kapitel 4 überprüfen wir die Ergebnisse einer Studie zur Steuervermeidung, die von den Grünen/EFA im Europäischen Parlament in Auftrag gegeben wurde. Diese Studie erregte große Aufmerksamkeit, weil sie behauptete, dass Unternehmen in Deutschland weit weniger Steuern zahlen, als der gesetzliche Steuersatz vermuten ließe. Wir zeigen, dass die Ergebnisse falsch sind und tragen damit zur Steuertransparenz in Deutschland bei.This dissertation consists of four chapters on tax misperception. Chapter 1 reviews the previous literature on tax misperceptions and systematizes it through the development of the Behavioral Taxpayer Response Model. The extent of tax misperception is determined by information availability and personal characteristics. Under the assumption that tax information is available, taxpayers may even misperceive the tax burden because they behave in a rational bounded manner. The extensive literature also shows that there is little literature on corporations. We address this research gap in Chapter 2, which analyzes the misperception of tax rates by firms in Germany. To overcome data limitations, we use an innovative approach to measure tax misperception that provides robust estimates. In general, firms significantly misperceive their average (ATR) and marginal tax rates (MTR) and have problems with the concept MTR. Misperceptions tend to be influenced by the complexity of the tax system, tax knowledge, and satisfaction with the current tax system. In the context of wealth taxation, we use a survey experiment in Chapter 3 to show that misperception of a yearly wealth tax, due to its mathematical complexity, leads to a biased preference for wealth taxation. Informing respondents about the actual tax burden leads to significantly lower preferred tax parameters. In the final Chapter 4, we question the findings of a study on tax avoidance commissioned by the Greens/EFA in the European Parliament. This study attracted media attention because it claimed that companies in Germany pay far less tax than the statutory tax rate would suggest. We demonstrate that their findings are wrong and help to increase tax transparency in Germany

Integration of an unmanned aircraft system and ground-based remote sensing to estimate spatially distributed crop evapotranspiration and soil water deficit throughout the vegetation soil root zone

2016 Spring.Includes bibliographical references.Irrigation is the largest consumer of fresh water and produces over 40% of the world’s food and fiber supply. As the world’s population continues to grow rapidly, the increased demands on fresh water will force the agricultural community to improve the efficiency and productivity of irrigation systems, while reducing overall water usage. In order to address the requirements of increased efficiency and productivity in agricultural water use, the agricultural community has begun to focus on the development of precision agriculture (PA) irrigation management systems for use with irrigated agriculture. Remote sensing (RS) is at the forefront of the PA movement, allowing the estimation of spatially distributed crop water requirements on a large-scale basis. Techniques using ground, aerial and space-borne RS platforms, have been developed to estimate actual crop evapotranspiration (ETa) and soil water deficit (SWD) for use in PA irrigation management systems. The ability to monitor the ETa and SWD allows irrigators to manage their irrigation to increase efficiency and decrease overall water use while maintaining crop yields goals. Historically, remote sensing data, such as spectral reflectance and thermal infrared (TIR) imagery, were provided by ground or space-borne RS platforms, like NASA’s Landsat 8 satellites. Though these methods are effective at estimating ETa over large areas, their lack of spatial and temporal resolution limit their effectiveness for application in PA irrigation management systems. In order to address the required spatial and temporal resolutions required for PA systems, Colorado State University (CSU) developed an unmanned aircraft system (UAS) RS platform capable of collecting high spatial and temporal resolution data in the TIR, near-infrared (NIR), red and green bands of the electromagnetic spectrum. During the summer of 2015, CSU conducted four flights over corn at the Agriculture Research Development and Education Center (ARDEC), near Fort Collins, CO, with the Tempest UAS RS platform in order to collect thermal and multispectral imagery. The RS data collected over the ARDEC test location were used in three studies. The first was the comparison of the raw RS data to the ground-based RS data collected during the RS overpasses. The second study used the Tempest RS data to estimate the ETa using four methods: two methods based on the surface energy balance (Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB) and the Surface Aerodynamic Temperature (SAT)), one method based on the TIR imagery (Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI)), and one method based on the spectral reflectance imagery (reflectance-based crop coefficients (kcbrf)) and reference ET. Remote sensing derived ETa estimates were compared to ETa derived using neutron probe soil moisture sensors. The third study utilized the RS derived ETa and the Hybrid Soil Water Balance method to estimate the SWD for comparison with the neutron probe derived SWD. Results showed that the Tempest RS data was in good agreement with the ground-based data as demonstrate by the low RMSE of the raw data, ETa and SWD calculations (TIR = 5.68 oC, NIR = 5.26 % reflectance, red = 3.51 % reflectance, green = 7.31 % reflectance, TSEB ETa = 0.89 mm/d, Hybrid SWD = 16.19 mm/m). The accuracy of the results of the Tempest UAS RS platform suggests that UAS RS platforms have the potential to increase the accuracy of ETa and SWD estimation for use in the application of a PA irrigation management system