Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS): Preliminary Space-Based Concept and Study Results

There exists an infrequent, but significant hazard to life and property due to impacting asteroids and comets. There is currently no specific search for long-period comets, smaller near-Earth asteroids, or smaller short-period comets. These objects represent a threat with potentially little or no warning time using conventional ground-based telescopes. These planetary bodies also represent a significant resource for commercial exploitation, long-term sustained space exploration, and scientific research. The Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS) is a future space-based system concept that provides permanent, continuous asteroid and comet monitoring, and rapid, controlled modification of the orbital trajectories of selected bodies. CAPS would expand the current detection effort to include long-period comets, as well as small asteroids and short-period comets capable of regional destruction. A space-based detection system, despite being more costly and complex than Earth-based initiatives, is the most promising way of expanding the range of detectable objects, and surveying the entire celestial sky on a regular basis. CAPS would provide an orbit modification system capable of diverting kilometer class objects, and modifying the orbits of smaller asteroids for impact defense and resource utilization. This Technical Memorandum provides a compilation of key related topics and analyses performed during the CAPS study, which was performed under the Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts (RASC) program, and discusses technologies that could enable the implementation of this future system

Asteroid hazard mitigation: deflection models and mission analysis

Small celestial bodies such as Near Earth Objects (NEOs) have become a common subject of study because of their importance in uncovering the mysteries of the composition, formation and evolution of the solar system. Among all asteroids, NEOs have stepped into prominence because of two important aspects: they are among the easiest celestial bodies to reach from Earth, in some cases with less demanding trajectories than a simple Earth-Moon trajectory and, even more meaningful, they may pose a threat to our planet. The purpose of this thesis is to provide a comprehensive insight into the asteroid hazard problem and particularly to its mitigation. Six different concepts are fully described; specifically models for nuclear interceptor, kinetic impactor, low-thrust propulsion, mass driver, solar collector and gravity tug are developed and their efficiency is assessed for a complete set of different types of hazardous celestial objects. A multi-criteria optimization is then used to construct a set of Pareto-optimal asteroid deflection missions. The Pareto-optimality is here achieved not only by maximizing the deflection of the threatening object, but also by minimizing the total mass of the deflection mission at launch and the warning time required to deflect the asteroid. A dominance criterion is also defined and used to compare all the Pareto sets for all the various mitigation strategies. The Technology Readiness Level for each strategy is also accounted for in the comparison. Finally, this thesis will also show that impulsive deflection methods may easily catastrophically disrupt an asteroid if the required energy for a deflection reaches a certain limit threshold. A statistical model is presented to approximate both the number and size of the fragments and their initial dispersion of velocity and then used to assess the potential risk to Earth posed by the fragmentation of an asteroid as a possible outcome of a hazard mitigation mission

Synergies of Robotic Asteroid Redirection Technologies and Human Space Exploration

This paper summarizes the results of a 2014 KISS workshop that identified a wide variety of ways that the technologies (and their near-term derivatives) developed for the proposed Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) would beneficially impact the Nation’s space interests including: human missions to Mars and its moons, planetary defense, orbital debris removal, robotic deep-space science missions, commercial communication satellites, and commercial asteroid resource utilization missions. This wide applicability of asteroid retrieval technology is, in many ways, is just as surprising as was the initial finding about the feasibility of ARM. The current Asteroid Redirect Mission concept consists of two major parts: the development of an advanced Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) capability and the retrieval of a near-Earth asteroid. The improvement in SEP technology required by ARM provides an extensible path to support human missions to Mars, is applicable to all planetary defense techniques, could reduce the time required for the LEO-to-GEO transfer of large commercial or military satellites, would enable new deep space robotic science missions, and could enable affordable removal of large orbital debris objects. The asteroid retrieval part of ARM would greatly improve the understanding of the structure of rubble-pile asteroids necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of primary asteroid deflection techniques, demonstrate at least one secondary asteroid deflection technique, greatly accelerate the use of material resources obtained in space to further space exploration and exploitation, and further planetary science

Proceedings of the Near-Earth-Object Interception Workshop

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Headquarters sponsored the Near-Earth-Object Interception Workshop hosted by the Los Alamos National Laboratory on 14-16 Jan. 1992 at the J. Robert Oppenheimer Study Center in Los Alamos, New Mexico. The Workshop evaluated the issues involved in intercepting celestial objects that could hit the Earth. It covered the technologies for acquiring, tracking, and homing, as well as those for sending interceptors to inspect, rendezvous with, land on, irradiate, deflect, or destroy them. This report records the presentations and technical options reviewed

Orbital Debris-Debris Collision Avoidance

We focus on preventing collisions between debris and debris, for which there is no current, effective mitigation strategy. We investigate the feasibility of using a medium-powered (5 kW) ground-based laser combined with a ground-based telescope to prevent collisions between debris objects in low-Earth orbit (LEO). The scheme utilizes photon pressure alone as a means to perturb the orbit of a debris object. Applied over multiple engagements, this alters the debris orbit sufficiently to reduce the risk of an upcoming conjunction. We employ standard assumptions for atmospheric conditions and the resulting beam propagation. Using case studies designed to represent the properties (e.g. area and mass) of the current debris population, we show that one could significantly reduce the risk of nearly half of all catastrophic collisions involving debris using only one such laser/telescope facility. We speculate on whether this could mitigate the debris fragmentation rate such that it falls below the natural debris re-entry rate due to atmospheric drag, and thus whether continuous long-term operation could entirely mitigate the Kessler syndrome in LEO, without need for relatively expensive active debris removal.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures. Accepted for publication in Advances in Space Researc

Space shuttle avionics system

The Space Shuttle avionics system, which was conceived in the early 1970's and became operational in the 1980's represents a significant advancement of avionics system technology in the areas of systems and redundacy management, digital data base technology, flight software, flight control integration, digital fly-by-wire technology, crew display interface, and operational concepts. The origins and the evolution of the system are traced; the requirements, the constraints, and other factors which led to the final configuration are outlined; and the functional operation of the system is described. An overall system block diagram is included

Space-based Maneuver Detection and Characterization using Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation

An increasingly congested space environment requires real-time and dynamic space situational awareness (SSA) on both domestic and foreign space objects in Earth orbits. Current statistical orbit determination (SOD) techniques are able to estimate and track trajectories for cooperative spacecraft. However, a non-cooperative spacecraft performing unknown maneuvers at unknown times can lead to unexpected changes in the underlying dynamics of classical filtering techniques. Adaptive estimation techniques can be utilized to build a bank of recursive estimators with different hypotheses on a system\u27s dynamics. The current study assesses the use of a multiple model adaptive estimation (MMAE) technique for detecting and characterizing noncooperative spacecraft maneuvers using space-based sensors for spacecraft in close proximity. A series of classical and variable state multiple model frameworks are implemented, tested, and analyzed through maneuver detection scenarios using relative spacecraft orbit dynamics. Variable levels of noise, data availability, and target thrust profiles are used to demonstrate and quantify the performance of the MMAE algorithm using Monte Carlo methods. The current research demonstrates that adaptive estimation techniques are able to handle unknown changes in the dynamics while keeping comparable errors with respect to other classical estimation methods

A Neoclassical Realist’s Analysis Of Sino-U.S. Space Policy

During the Cold War, the United States focused its collective policy acumen on forming a competitive, actor-specific strategy to gain advantage over the Soviet Union. The fragmentation of the Soviet Union resulted in a multi-polar geopolitical environment lacking a near-peer rival for the United States. Overwhelming soft and hard power advantages allowed American policy makers to peruse a general, non-actor specific strategy to maintain its hegemonic position. However, the meteoric rise of China as a near-peer competitor in East Asia has challenged this paradigm. In order to maintain its competitive advantage, or at the very least ensure the safety of its geopolitical objectives through encouraging benign competition, U.S. strategy needs to evolve in both focus and complexity. It is essential for Spacepower, as a key element of national power, to be included in this evolution. In order to do so, this analysis will examine Sino-U.S. space relations using neoclassical realism as a baseline methodology. First, structural elements of the Sino-U.S. relationship will be modeled in a semi-quantitative game theoretical framework, using relative economic and military capabilities as primary independent variables. Second, key assumptions will be tested to ensure that this model accurately represents the current geopolitical environment. Third, the decision making apparatuses of the United States and China will be examined as intervening variables. This will account for imperfect rationality and how it modifies the game theoretical framework. Fourth, this framework will be used to present actionable space policy recommendations for the United States so that space can be incorporated into a competitive strategy for East Asia

Optimal trajectory design for interception and deflection of Near Earth Objects

Many asteroids and comets orbit the inner solar system; among them Near Earth Objects (NEOs) are those celestial bodies for which the orbit lies close, and sometimes crosses, the Earth's orbit. Over the last decades the impact hazard they pose to the Earth has generated heated discussions on the required measures to react to such a scenario. The aim of the research presented in this dissertation is to develop methodologies for the trajectory design of interception and deflection missions to Near Earth Objects. The displacement, following a deflection manoeuvre, of the asteroid at the minimum orbit intersection distance with the Earth is expressed by means of a simple and general formulation, which exploits the relative motion equations and Gauss' equations. The variation of the orbital elements achieved by any impulsive or low-thrust action on the threatening body is derived through a semi-analytical approach, whose accuracy is extensively shown. This formulation allows the analysis of the optimal direction of the deflection manoeuvre to maximise the achievable deviation. The search for optimal opportunities for mitigation missions is done through a global optimisation approach. The transfer trajectory, modelled through preliminary design techniques, is integrated with the deflection model. In this way, the mission planning can be performed by optimising different contrasting criteria, such as the mass at launch, the warning time, and the total deflection. A set of Pareto fronts is computed for different deflection strategies and considering various asteroid mitigation scenarios. Each Pareto set represents a number of mission opportunities, over a wide domain of launch windows and design parameters. A first set of results focuses on impulsive deflection missions, to a selected group of potentially hazardous asteroids; the analysis shows that the ideal optimal direction of the deflection manoeuvre cannot always be achieved when the transfer trajectory is integrated with the deflection phase. A second set of results includes solutions for the deviation of some selected NEOs by means of a solar collector strategy. The semi-analytical formulation derived allows the reduction of the computational time, hence the generation of a large number of solutions. Moreover, sets of Pareto fronts for asteroid mitigation are computed through the more feasible deflection schemes proposed in literature: kinetic impactor, nuclear interceptor, mass driver device, low-thrust attached propulsion, solar collector, and gravity tug. A dominance criterion is used to perform a comparative assessment of these mitigation strategies, while also considering the required technological development through a technology readiness factor. The global search of solutions through a multi-criteria optimisation approach represents the first stage of the mission planning, in which preliminary design techniques are used for the trajectory model. At a second stage, a selected number of trajectories can be optimised, using a refined model of the dynamics. For this purpose, the use of Differential Dynamic Programming (DDP) is investigated for the solution of the optimal control problem associated to the design of low-thrust trajectories. The stage-wise approach of DDP is exploited to integrate an adaptive step discretisation scheme within the optimisation process. The discretisation mesh is adjusted at each iteration, to assure high accuracy of the solution trajectory and hence fully exploit the dynamics of the problem within the optimisation process. The feedback nature of the control law is preserved, through a particular interpolation technique that improves the robustness against some approximation errors. The modified DDP-method is presented and applied to the design of transfer trajectories to the fly-by or rendezvous of NEOs, including the escape phase at the Earth. The DDP approach allows the optimisation of the trajectory as a whole, without recurring to the patched conic approach. The results show how the proposed method is capable of fully exploiting the multi-body dynamics of the problem; in fact, in one of the study cases, a fly-by of the Earth is scheduled, which was not included in the first guess solution

The Spaceguard Survey: Report of the NASA International Near-Earth-Object Detection Workshop

Impacts by Earth-approaching asteroids and comets pose a significant hazard to life and property. Although the annual probability of the Earth being struck by a large asteroid or comet is extremely small, the consequences of such a collision are so catastrophic that it is prudent to assess the nature of the threat and to prepare to deal with it. The first step in any program for the prevention or mitigation of impact catastrophes must involve a comprehensive search for Earth-crossing asteroids and comets and a detailed analysis of their orbits. At the request of the U.S. Congress, NASA has carried out a preliminary study to define a program for dramatically increasing the detection rate of Earth-crossing objects, as documented in this workshop report