Prognostics and health management for maintenance practitioners - Review, implementation and tools evaluation.

In literature, prognostics and health management (PHM) systems have been studied by many researchers from many different engineering fields to increase system reliability, availability, safety and to reduce the maintenance cost of engineering assets. Many works conducted in PHM research concentrate on designing robust and accurate models to assess the health state of components for particular applications to support decision making. Models which involve mathematical interpretations, assumptions and approximations make PHM hard to understand and implement in real world applications, especially by maintenance practitioners in industry. Prior knowledge to implement PHM in complex systems is crucial to building highly reliable systems. To fill this gap and motivate industry practitioners, this paper attempts to provide a comprehensive review on PHM domain and discusses important issues on uncertainty quantification, implementation aspects next to prognostics feature and tool evaluation. In this paper, PHM implementation steps consists of; (1) critical component analysis, (2) appropriate sensor selection for condition monitoring (CM), (3) prognostics feature evaluation under data analysis and (4) prognostics methodology and tool evaluation matrices derived from PHM literature. Besides PHM implementation aspects, this paper also reviews previous and on-going research in high-speed train bogies to highlight problems faced in train industry and emphasize the significance of PHM for further investigations

Accommodating maintenance in prognostics

Error on title page - year of award is 2021Steam turbines are an important asset of nuclear power plants, and are required to operate reliably and efficiently. Unplanned outages have a significant impact on the ability of the plant to generate electricity. Therefore, condition-based maintenance (CBM) can be used for predictive and proactive maintenance to avoid unplanned outages while reducing operating costs and increasing the reliability and availability of the plant. In CBM, the information gathered can be interpreted for prognostics (the prediction of failure time or remaining useful life (RUL)). The aim of this project was to address two areas of challenges in prognostics, the selection of predictive technique and accommodation of post-maintenance effects, to improve the efficacy of prognostics. The selection of an appropriate predictive algorithm is a key activity for an effective development of prognostics. In this research, a formal approach for the evaluation and selection of predictive techniques is developed to facilitate a methodic selection process of predictive techniques by engineering experts. This approach is then implemented for a case study provided by the engineering experts. Therefore, as a result of formal evaluation, a probabilistic technique the Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR) and a non-probabilistic technique the Support Vector Regression (SVR) were selected for prognostics implementation. In this project, the knowledge of prognostics implementation is extended by including post maintenance affects into prognostics. Maintenance aims to restore a machine into a state where it is safe and reliable to operate while recovering the health of the machine. However, such activities result in introduction of uncertainties that are associated with predictions due to deviations in degradation model. Thus, affecting accuracy and efficacy of predictions. Therefore, such vulnerabilities must be addressed by incorporating the information from maintenance events for accurate and reliable predictions. This thesis presents two frameworks which are adapted for probabilistic and non-probabilistic prognostic techniques to accommodate maintenance. Two case studies: a real-world case study from a nuclear power plant in the UK and a synthetic case study which was generated based on the characteristics of a real-world case study are used for the implementation and validation of the frameworks. The results of the implementation hold a promise for predicting remaining useful life while accommodating maintenance repairs. Therefore, ensuring increased asset availability with higher reliability, maintenance cost effectiveness and operational safety.Steam turbines are an important asset of nuclear power plants, and are required to operate reliably and efficiently. Unplanned outages have a significant impact on the ability of the plant to generate electricity. Therefore, condition-based maintenance (CBM) can be used for predictive and proactive maintenance to avoid unplanned outages while reducing operating costs and increasing the reliability and availability of the plant. In CBM, the information gathered can be interpreted for prognostics (the prediction of failure time or remaining useful life (RUL)). The aim of this project was to address two areas of challenges in prognostics, the selection of predictive technique and accommodation of post-maintenance effects, to improve the efficacy of prognostics. The selection of an appropriate predictive algorithm is a key activity for an effective development of prognostics. In this research, a formal approach for the evaluation and selection of predictive techniques is developed to facilitate a methodic selection process of predictive techniques by engineering experts. This approach is then implemented for a case study provided by the engineering experts. Therefore, as a result of formal evaluation, a probabilistic technique the Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR) and a non-probabilistic technique the Support Vector Regression (SVR) were selected for prognostics implementation. In this project, the knowledge of prognostics implementation is extended by including post maintenance affects into prognostics. Maintenance aims to restore a machine into a state where it is safe and reliable to operate while recovering the health of the machine. However, such activities result in introduction of uncertainties that are associated with predictions due to deviations in degradation model. Thus, affecting accuracy and efficacy of predictions. Therefore, such vulnerabilities must be addressed by incorporating the information from maintenance events for accurate and reliable predictions. This thesis presents two frameworks which are adapted for probabilistic and non-probabilistic prognostic techniques to accommodate maintenance. Two case studies: a real-world case study from a nuclear power plant in the UK and a synthetic case study which was generated based on the characteristics of a real-world case study are used for the implementation and validation of the frameworks. The results of the implementation hold a promise for predicting remaining useful life while accommodating maintenance repairs. Therefore, ensuring increased asset availability with higher reliability, maintenance cost effectiveness and operational safety

Uncertainty-aware deep learning for prediction of remaining useful life of mechanical systems

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is a problem that researchers in the prognostics and health management (PHM) community have been studying for decades. Both physics-based and data-driven methods have been investigated, and in recent years, deep learning has gained significant attention. When sufficiently large and diverse datasets are available, deep neural networks can achieve state-of-the-art performance in RUL prediction for a variety of systems. However, for end users to trust the results of these models, especially as they are integrated into safety-critical systems, RUL prediction uncertainty must be captured. This work explores an approach for estimating both epistemic and heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainties that emerge in RUL prediction deep neural networks and demonstrates that quantifying the overall impact of these uncertainties on predictions reveal valuable insight into model performance. Additionally, a study is carried out to observe the effects of RUL truth data augmentation on perceived uncertainties in the model

Prognostic-based Life Extension Methodology with Application to Power Generation Systems

Practicable life extension of engineering systems would be a remarkable application of prognostics. This research proposes a framework for prognostic-base life extension. This research investigates the use of prognostic data to mobilize the potential residual life. The obstacles in performing life extension include: lack of knowledge, lack of tools, lack of data, and lack of time. This research primarily considers using the acoustic emission (AE) technology for quick-response diagnostic. To be specific, an important feature of AE data was statistically modeled to provide quick, robust and intuitive diagnostic capability. The proposed model was successful to detect the out of control situation when the data of faulty bearing was applied. This research also highlights the importance of self-healing materials. One main component of the proposed life extension framework is the trend analysis module. This module analyzes the pattern of the time-ordered degradation measures. The trend analysis is helpful not only for early fault detection but also to track the improvement in the degradation rate. This research considered trend analysis methods for the prognostic parameters, degradation waveform and multivariate data. In this respect, graphical methods was found appropriate for trend detection of signal features. Hilbert Huang Transform was applied to analyze the trends in waveforms. For multivariate data, it was realized that PCA is able to indicate the trends in the data if accompanied by proper data processing. In addition, two algorithms are introduced to address non-monotonic trends. It seems, both algorithms have the potential to treat the non-monotonicity in degradation data. Although considerable research has been devoted to developing prognostics algorithms, rather less attention has been paid to post-prognostic issues such as maintenance decision making. A multi-objective optimization model is presented for a power generation unit. This model proves the ability of prognostic models to balance between power generation and life extension. In this research, the confronting objective functions were defined as maximizing profit and maximizing service life. The decision variables include the shaft speed and duration of maintenance actions. The results of the optimization models showed clearly that maximizing the service life requires lower shaft speed and longer maintenance time

Prognostics

Knowledge discovery, statistical learning, and more specifically an understanding of the system evolution in time when it undergoes undesirable fault conditions, are critical for an adequate implementation of successful prognostic systems. Prognosis may be understood as the generation of long-term predictions describing the evolution in time of a particular signal of interest or fault indicator, with the purpose of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a failing component/subsystem. Predictions are made using a thorough understanding of the underlying processes and factor in the anticipated future usage

Towards a hybrid approach for diagnostics and prognostics of planetary gearboxes

The reliable operation of planetary gearboxes is critical for the sustained operation of many machines such as wind turbines and helicopter transmissions. Hybrid methods that make use of the respective advantages of physics-based and data-driven models can be valuable in addressing the unique challenges associated with the condition monitoring of planetary gearboxes. In this dissertation, a hybrid framework for diagnostics and prognostics of planetary gearboxes is proposed. The proposed framework aims to diagnose and predict the root crack length in a planet gear tooth from accelerometer measurements. Physics-based and data-driven models are combined to exploit their respective advantages, and it is assumed that no failure data is available for training these models. Components required for the implementation of the proposed framework are studied separately and challenges associated with each component are discussed. The proposed hybrid framework comprises a health state estimation and health state prediction part. In the health state estimation part of the proposed framework, the crack length is diagnosed from the measured vibration response. To do this, the following model components are implemented: A first finite element model is used to simulate the crack growth path in the planet gear tooth. Thereafter, a second finite element model is used to establish a relationship between the gearbox time varying mesh stiffness, and the crack length in the planet gear tooth. A lumped mass model is then used to model the vibration response of the gearbox housing subject to the gearbox time varying mesh stiffness excitation. The measurements from an accelerometer mounted on the gearbox housing are processed by computing the synchronous average. Finally, these model components are combined with an additional data-driven model for diagnosing the crack length from the measured vibration response through the solution of an inverse problem. After the crack length is diagnosed through the health state estimation model, the Paris crack propagation law and Bayesian state estimation techniques are used to predict the remaining useful life of the gearbox. To validate the proposed hybrid framework, an experimental setup is developed. The experimental setup allows for the measurement of the vibration response of a planetary gearbox with different tooth root crack lengths in the planet gear. However, challenges in reliably detecting the damage in the experimental setup lead to the use of simulated data for studying the respective components of the hybrid method. Studies conducted using simulated data highlighted interesting challenges that need to be overcome before a hybrid diagnostics and prognostics framework for planetary gearboxes can be applied in practice.Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2021.Eskom EPPEIMechanical and Aeronautical EngineeringMscUnrestricte

An investigation into the prognosis of electromagnetic relays.

Electrical contacts provide a well-proven solution to switching various loads in a wide variety of applications, such as power distribution, control applications, automotive and telecommunications. However, electrical contacts are known for limited reliability due to degradation effects upon the switching contacts due to arcing and fretting. Essentially, the life of the device may be determined by the limited life of the contacts. Failure to trip, spurious tripping and contact welding can, in critical applications such as control systems for avionics and nuclear power application, cause significant costs due to downtime, as well as safety implications. Prognostics provides a way to assess the remaining useful life (RUL) of a component based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operating conditions. In this thesis, the effects of contact wear on a set of electromagnetic relays used in an avionic power controller is examined, and how contact resistance combined with a prognostic approach, can be used to ascertain the RUL of the device. Two methodologies are presented, firstly a Physics based Model (PbM) of the degradation using the predicted material loss due to arc damage. Secondly a computationally efficient technique using posterior degradation data to form a state space model in real time via a Sliding Window Recursive Least Squares (SWRLS) algorithm. Health monitoring using the presented techniques can provide knowledge of impending failure in high reliability applications where the risks associated with loss-of-functionality are too high to endure. The future states of the systems has been estimated based on a Particle and Kalman-filter projection of the models via a Bayesian framework. Performance of the prognostication health management algorithm during the contacts life has been quantified using performance evaluation metrics. Model predictions have been correlated with experimental data. Prognostic metrics including Prognostic Horizon (PH), alpha-Lamda (α-λ), and Relative Accuracy have been used to assess the performance of the damage proxies and a comparison of the two models made

Prognostics and health aware model predictive control of wind turbines

Wind turbines components are subject to considerable stresses and fatigue due to extreme environmental conditions to which they are exposed, especially those located offshore. Also, the most common faults present in wind turbine components have been investigated for years by the research community and that has led to propose a fault diagnosis and fault tolerant control wind turbine benchmark which include a set of faults that affect the sensors and actuators of several wind turbine components. This thesis presents some contributions to the fields of fault diagnosis, fault-tolerant control, prognostics and its integration with wind turbine control which leads to proposing a control approach called health-aware model predictive control (HAMPC). The contributions are summarized below: - Model-based fault diagnosis: to perform fault detection and isolation interval-based observers together with a set of analytical redundant relations (ARRs) are obtained based on a structural analysis and the fault signature matrix that relates the ARRs with the faults. - Fault tolerant control: it is proposed a fault tolerant control scheme that integrates fault detection and an algorithm for fault accommodation. The scheme has the objective to avoid the increment of blades and tower loads when a fault in the rotor azimuth angle sensor occurs using the individual pitch control technique (IPC). - Wind turbine blades fatigue prognostics and degradation: fatigue is assessed using the rainflow counting algorithm which is used to estimate the accumulated damage and for degradation, it is used a stiffness degradation model of blades material which is used to make predictions of remaining useful life (RUL). - Wind turbines health control: the module for the health of the system based on fatigue damage estimation and RUL predictions is integrated with model predictive control (MPC) leading to the proposed control approach (HAMPC). The contributions presented in this thesis have been validated on a wind turbine study case that uses a 5MW wind turbine reference model implemented in a high fidelity wind turbine simulator (FAST).Els components dels aerogeneradors estan sotmesos a considerable estrès i fatiga, degut a les condicions ambientals extremes a les quals estan exposats, especialment els localitzats en alta mar. Per aquest motiu, al comunitat científica durant els últims anys ha investigat les averies més comunes presents en els aerogeneradors, fet que ha portat a proposar un cas d'estudi de diagnosi i control tolerant de fallades que inclou un conjunt de fallades que afecten a diversos components dels aerogeneradors. Aquesta tesi presenta algunes contribucions en els camps de la diagnosi de fallades, el control tolerant de fallades i la prognosi, així com la seva integració amb el control d'aerogeneradors, fet que ha portat a proposar una tècnica de control anomenada control predictiu basada en models conscients de la salut del sistema (HAMPC). Concretament les aportacions es poden resumir en: - Diagnosi de fallades basada en models: per a la detecció s'utilitzen observadors intervalars i l'aïllament de la fallada es fa en base el conjunt d'ARRs obtinguts de l'anàlisi estructural i de la matriu de signatures de fallades que relaciona les ARRs amb les fallades. - Control tolerant de fallades: es proposa un esquema de control tolerant a fallades que integra la detecció de fallades i algoritme d'acomodació de fallades, i té per objectiu evitar l'augment de càrregues en la pala i la torre quan es produeix una fallada en el sensor azimuth quan es fa un control individual de la inclinació de les pales (IPC). - Prognosi de la fatiga i la degradació de les pales: la fatiga s'avalua amb un algorisme denominat "rainflow counting" amb el qual es fa estimació del dany acumulat i per a la degradació es fa servir un model de degradació de la rigidesa del material amb el qual es fan prediccions de la vida útil restant (RUL). - Control de la salut d'aerogeneradors: s'ha integrat la gestió de la salut del sistema basat en danys per fatiga o prediccions de RUL amb control predictiu basat en models (MPC) donant lloc al control que anomenem HAMPC. Les contribucions presentades en aquesta tesi han sigut validades en un cas d'estudi d'aerogeneradors basat en un aerogenerador de referència de 5MW de potència implementat en el simulador d'aerogeneradors d'alta fidelitat conegut amb el nom de FAST.Postprint (published version