Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation for distributed hydrological modeling: potential of variational methods

Variational methods are widely used for the analysis and control of computationally intensive spatially distributed systems. In particular, the adjoint state method enables a very efficient calculation of the derivatives of an objective function (response function to be analysed or cost function to be optimised) with respect to model inputs. In this contribution, it is shown that the potential of variational methods for distributed catchment scale hydrology should be considered. A distributed flash flood model, coupling kinematic wave overland flow and Green Ampt infiltration, is applied to a small catchment of the Thoré basin and used as a relatively simple (synthetic observations) but didactic application case. It is shown that forward and adjoint sensitivity analysis provide a local but extensive insight on the relation between the assigned model parameters and the simulated hydrological response. Spatially distributed parameter sensitivities can be obtained for a very modest calculation effort (~6 times the computing time of a single model run) and the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the Jacobian matrix provides an interesting perspective for the analysis of the rainfall-runoff relation. For the estimation of model parameters, adjoint-based derivatives were found exceedingly efficient in driving a bound-constrained quasi-Newton algorithm. The reference parameter set is retrieved independently from the optimization initial condition when the very common dimension reduction strategy (i.e. scalar multipliers) is adopted. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis results suggest that most of the variability in this high-dimensional parameter space can be captured with a few orthogonal directions. A parametrization based on the SVD leading singular vectors was found very promising but should be combined with another regularization strategy in order to prevent overfitting

Automating embedded analysis capabilities and managing software complexity in multiphysics simulation part I: template-based generic programming

An approach for incorporating embedded simulation and analysis capabilities in complex simulation codes through template-based generic programming is presented. This approach relies on templating and operator overloading within the C++ language to transform a given calculation into one that can compute a variety of additional quantities that are necessary for many state-of-the-art simulation and analysis algorithms. An approach for incorporating these ideas into complex simulation codes through general graph-based assembly is also presented. These ideas have been implemented within a set of packages in the Trilinos framework and are demonstrated on a simple problem from chemical engineering

Automating embedded analysis capabilities and managing software complexity in multiphysics simulation part II: application to partial differential equations

A template-based generic programming approach was presented in a previous paper that separates the development effort of programming a physical model from that of computing additional quantities, such as derivatives, needed for embedded analysis algorithms. In this paper, we describe the implementation details for using the template-based generic programming approach for simulation and analysis of partial differential equations (PDEs). We detail several of the hurdles that we have encountered, and some of the software infrastructure developed to overcome them. We end with a demonstration where we present shape optimization and uncertainty quantification results for a 3D PDE application

Development of the adjoint of GEOS-Chem

We present the adjoint of the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem, focusing on the chemical and thermodynamic relationships between sulfate – ammonium – nitrate aerosols and their gas-phase precursors. The adjoint model is constructed from a combination of manually and automatically derived discrete adjoint algorithms and numerical solutions to continuous adjoint equations. Explicit inclusion of the processes that govern secondary formation of inorganic aerosol is shown to afford efficient calculation of model sensitivities such as the dependence of sulfate and nitrate aerosol concentrations on emissions of SOx, NOx, and NH3. The adjoint model is extensively validated by comparing adjoint to finite difference sensitivities, which are shown to agree within acceptable tolerances; most sets of comparisons have a nearly 1:1 correlation and R2>0.9. We explore the robustness of these results, noting how insufficient observations or nonlinearities in the advection routine can degrade the adjoint model performance. The potential for inverse modeling using the adjoint of GEOS-Chem is assessed in a data assimilation framework through a series of tests using simulated observations, demonstrating the feasibility of exploiting gas- and aerosol-phase measurements for optimizing emission inventories of aerosol precursors

The Responsibility Quantification (ResQu) Model of Human Interaction with Automation

Intelligent systems and advanced automation are involved in information collection and evaluation, in decision-making and in the implementation of chosen actions. In such systems, human responsibility becomes equivocal. Understanding human casual responsibility is particularly important when intelligent autonomous systems can harm people, as with autonomous vehicles or, most notably, with autonomous weapon systems (AWS). Using Information Theory, we develop a responsibility quantification (ResQu) model of human involvement in intelligent automated systems and demonstrate its applications on decisions regarding AWS. The analysis reveals that human comparative responsibility to outcomes is often low, even when major functions are allocated to the human. Thus, broadly stated policies of keeping humans in the loop and having meaningful human control are misleading and cannot truly direct decisions on how to involve humans in intelligent systems and advanced automation. The current model is an initial step in the complex goal to create a comprehensive responsibility model, that will enable quantification of human causal responsibility. It assumes stationarity, full knowledge regarding the characteristic of the human and automation and ignores temporal aspects. Despite these limitations, it can aid in the analysis of systems designs alternatives and policy decisions regarding human responsibility in intelligent systems and advanced automation

Stochastic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control with Efficient Sample Approximation of Chance Constraints

This paper presents a stochastic model predictive control approach for nonlinear systems subject to time-invariant probabilistic uncertainties in model parameters and initial conditions. The stochastic optimal control problem entails a cost function in terms of expected values and higher moments of the states, and chance constraints that ensure probabilistic constraint satisfaction. The generalized polynomial chaos framework is used to propagate the time-invariant stochastic uncertainties through the nonlinear system dynamics, and to efficiently sample from the probability densities of the states to approximate the satisfaction probability of the chance constraints. To increase computational efficiency by avoiding excessive sampling, a statistical analysis is proposed to systematically determine a-priori the least conservative constraint tightening required at a given sample size to guarantee a desired feasibility probability of the sample-approximated chance constraint optimization problem. In addition, a method is presented for sample-based approximation of the analytic gradients of the chance constraints, which increases the optimization efficiency significantly. The proposed stochastic nonlinear model predictive control approach is applicable to a broad class of nonlinear systems with the sufficient condition that each term is analytic with respect to the states, and separable with respect to the inputs, states and parameters. The closed-loop performance of the proposed approach is evaluated using the Williams-Otto reactor with seven states, and ten uncertain parameters and initial conditions. The results demonstrate the efficiency of the approach for real-time stochastic model predictive control and its capability to systematically account for probabilistic uncertainties in contrast to a nonlinear model predictive control approaches.Comment: Submitted to Journal of Process Contro