A good practice guide on the sources and magnitude of uncertainty arising in the practical measurement of environmental noise

A brief introduction to measurement uncertainty, uncertainty budgets, and inter-comparison exercises (repeated measurements), is provided in Chapter 2. The procedure forformulating an uncertainty budget and evaluating magnitudes is outlined in greater detail in Chapter 3. A flow chart summarising this process, and a checklist for the identification of sources of measurement uncertainty are included at the end of the chapter. Two example measurement exercises with corresponding uncertainty budgets are presented in Chapter 4. Some of the more commonly encountered sources of measurement uncertainty are outlined in Chapter5. Where possible, information on magnitudes or pointers to where that information can be found are included. The more important sources of uncertainty are highlighted, and “good practice guidelines” provided to help the practitioner identify means of reducing their effect. Case studies illustrating some of the points made in Chapter 5,and listing of relevant guidelines and further reading are provided in the Appendices

The Effect of Communicating Ambiguous Risk Information on Choice

Decision makers are frequently confronted with ambiguous risk information about activities with potential hazards. This may be a result of conflicting risk estimates from multiple sources or ambiguous risk information from a single source. The paper considers processing ambiguous risk information and its effect on the behavior of a decision maker with a-maximin expected utility preferences. The effect of imprecise risk information on behavior is related to the content of information, the decision maker’s trust in different sources of information, and his or her aversion to ambiguity.a-Maximin Expected Utility, aggregation of expert opinions, ambiguity, Knightian uncertainty, risk communication, trust in information source, Risk and Uncertainty,

Taming Data Explosion in Probabilistic Information Integration

Data integration has been a challenging problem for decades. In an ambient environment, where many autonomous devices have their own information sources and network connectivity is ad hoc and peer-to-peer, it even becomes a serious bottleneck. To enable devices to exchange information without the need for interaction with a user at data integration time and without the need for extensive semantic annotations, a probabilistic approach seems rather promising. It simply teaches the device how to cope with the uncertainty occurring during data integration. Unfortunately, without any kind of world knowledge, almost everything becomes uncertain, hence maintaining all possibilities produces huge integrated information sources. In this paper, we claim that only very simple and generic rules are enough world knowledge to drastically reduce the amount of uncertainty, hence to tame the data explosion to a manageable size

A SOCIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF MARKETING INFORMATION USAGE AMONG OHIO FRUIT PRODUCERS

Farm producers attempt to mitigate risk and uncertainty by utilizing accurate and reliable information. This research attempts to identify sources of information used by Ohio fruit producers and then determine which of these sources are best meeting their information needs. Results are based on a logit analysis of Ohio fruit producers and several factors are shown to influence producers' evaluation of the "adequacy" of their marketing information. Among these factors are age, business size, education, type of enterprise, and types of information sources. Reported findings have implications for marketing efficiency, particularly if producers' evaluation of information as adequate is positively related to its efficient use.Marketing,

Managing Uncertain Complex Events in Web of Things Applications

A critical issue in the Web of Things (WoT) is the need to process and analyze the interactions of Web-interconnected real-world objects. Complex Event Processing (CEP) is a powerful technology for analyzing streams of information about real-time distributed events, coming from different sources, and for extracting conclusions from them. However, in many situations these events are not free from uncertainty, due to either unreliable data sources and networks, measurement uncertainty, or to the inability to determine whether an event has actually happened or not. This short research paper discusses how CEP systems can incorporate different kinds of uncertainty, both in the events and in the rules. A case study is used to validate the proposal, and we discuss the benefits and limitations of this CEP extension.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Political Uncertainty and Policy Innovation

Conventional wisdom has it that outside sources of information enhance the capability of political institutions to separate selfish from benevolent incumbents. This paper investigates, in the presence of innovative public policies whose outcomes are uncertain, the role of outside information and shows that it is more involved than typically thought. While it is true that enhanced information helps in separating politicians, it also creates an externality that reduces the incentives to experiment with innovative public policies.Policy uncertainty; Political uncertainty; Fiscal federalism;Policy innovation; Experimentation.

INFORMATION SOURCES PREFERRED BY LIMITED RESOURCE FARMERS IN USING AGRICULTURAL RISK TOOLS

The paper examines limited resource farmers' perceptions of the usefulness of selected sources of risk management information. The rationale is to understand the information needs of this group of farmers and to customize outreach programs to address their needs.Risk and Uncertainty,