The History of the Quantitative Methods in Finance Conference Series. 1992-2007

This report charts the history of the Quantitative Methods in Finance (QMF) conference from its beginning in 1993 to the 15th conference in 2007. It lists alphabetically the 1037 speakers who presented at all 15 conferences and the titles of their papers.

Assessment of uncertainties in hot-wire anemometry and oil-film interferometry measurements for wall-bounded turbulent flows

In this study, the sources of uncertainty of hot-wire anemometry (HWA) and oil-film interferometry (OFI) measurements are assessed. Both statistical and classical methods are used for the forward and inverse problems, so that the contributions to the overall uncertainty of the measured quantities can be evaluated. The correlations between the parameters are taken into account through the Bayesian inference with error-in-variable (EiV) model. In the forward problem, very small differences were found when using Monte Carlo (MC), Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) and linear perturbation methods. In flow velocity measurements with HWA, the results indicate that the estimated uncertainty is lower when the correlations among parameters are considered, than when they are not taken into account. Moreover, global sensitivity analyses with Sobol indices showed that the HWA measurements are most sensitive to the wire voltage, and in the case of OFI the most sensitive factor is the calculation of fringe velocity. The relative errors in wall-shear stress, friction velocity and viscous length are 0.44%, 0.23% and 0.22%, respectively. Note that these values are lower than the ones reported in other wall-bounded turbulence studies. Note that in most studies of wall-bounded turbulence the correlations among parameters are not considered, and the uncertainties from the various parameters are directly added when determining the overall uncertainty of the measured quantity. In the present analysis we account for these correlations, which may lead to a lower overall uncertainty estimate due to error cancellation. Furthermore, our results also indicate that the crucial aspect when obtaining accurate inner-scaled velocity measurements is the wind-tunnel flow quality, which is more critical than the accuracy in wall-shear stress measurements

Clouds, p-boxes, fuzzy sets, and other uncertainty representations in higher dimensions

Uncertainty modeling in real-life applications comprises some serious problems such as the curse of dimensionality and a lack of sufficient amount of statistical data. In this paper we give a survey of methods for uncertainty handling and elaborate the latest progress towards real-life applications with respect to the problems that come with it. We compare different methods and highlight their relationships. We introduce intuitively the concept of potential clouds, our latest approach which successfully copes with both higher dimensions and incomplete information

Uncertainty management in the IPCC: agreeing to disagree

Looking back over three and a half Assessment Reports, we see that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has given increasing attention to the management and reporting of uncertainties, but coordination across working groups (WGs) has remained an issue. We argue that there are good reasons for working groups to use different methods to assess uncertainty, thus it is better that working groups agree to disagree rather than seek to bring everybody on one party line.IPCC; uncertainty

Shipboard Crisis Management: A Case Study.

The loss of the "Green Lily" in 1997 is used as a case study to highlight the characteristics of escalating crises. As in similar safety critical industries, these situations are unpredictable events that may require co-ordinated but flexible and creative responses from individuals and teams working in stressful conditions. Fundamental skill requirements for crisis management are situational awareness and decision making. This paper reviews the naturalistic decision making (NDM) model for insights into the nature of these skills and considers the optimal training regimes to cultivate them. The paper concludes with a review of the issues regarding the assessment of crisis management skills and current research into the determination of behavioural markers for measuring competence

Automatic goal allocation for a planetary rover with DSmT

In this chapter, we propose an approach for assigning aninterest level to the goals of a planetary rover. Assigning an interest level to goals, allows the rover to autonomously transform and reallocate the goals. The interest level is defined by data-fusing payload and navigation information. The fusion yields an 'interest map',that quantifies the level of interest of each area around the rover. In this way the planner can choose the most interesting scientific objectives to be analysed, with limited human intervention, and reallocates its goals autonomously. The Dezert-Smarandache Theory of Plausible and Paradoxical Reasoning was used for information fusion: this theory allows dealing with vague and conflicting data. In particular, it allows us to directly model the behaviour of the scientists that have to evaluate the relevance of a particular set of goals. This chaptershows an application of the proposed approach to the generation of a reliable interest map

Misunderstanding Models in Environmental and Public Health Regulation

Computational models are fundamental to environmental regulation, yet their capabilities tend to be misunderstood by policymakers. Rather than rely on models to illuminate dynamic and uncertain relationships in natural settings, policymakers too often use models as “answer machines.” This fundamental misperception that models can generate decisive facts leads to a perverse negative feedback loop that begins with policymaking itself and radiates into the science of modeling and into regulatory deliberations where participants can exploit the misunderstanding in strategic ways. This paper documents the pervasive misperception of models as truth machines in U.S. regulation and the multi-layered problems that result from this misunderstanding. The paper concludes with a series of proposals for making better use of models in environmental policy analysis.The Kay Bailey Hutchison Center for Energy, Law, and Busines