A two-step fusion process for multi-criteria decision applied to natural hazards in mountains

Mountain river torrents and snow avalanches generate human and material damages with dramatic consequences. Knowledge about natural phenomenona is often lacking and expertise is required for decision and risk management purposes using multi-disciplinary quantitative or qualitative approaches. Expertise is considered as a decision process based on imperfect information coming from more or less reliable and conflicting sources. A methodology mixing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multi-criteria aid-decision method, and information fusion using Belief Function Theory is described. Fuzzy Sets and Possibilities theories allow to transform quantitative and qualitative criteria into a common frame of discernment for decision in Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST ) and Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) contexts. Main issues consist in basic belief assignments elicitation, conflict identification and management, fusion rule choices, results validation but also in specific needs to make a difference between importance and reliability and uncertainty in the fusion process

Linking objective and subjective modeling in engineering design through arc-elastic dominance

Engineering design in mechanics is a complex activity taking into account both objective modeling processes derived from physical analysis and designers’ subjective reasoning. This paper introduces arc-elastic dominance as a suitable concept for ranking design solutions according to a combination of objective and subjective models. Objective models lead to the aggregation of information derived from physics, economics or eco-environmental analysis into a performance indicator. Subjective models result in a confidence indicator for the solutions’ feasibility. Arc-elastic dominant design solutions achieve an optimal compromise between gain in performance and degradation in confidence. Due to the definition of arc-elasticity, this compromise value is expressive and easy for designers to interpret despite the difference in the nature of the objective and subjective models. From the investigation of arc-elasticity mathematical properties, a filtering algorithm of Pareto-efficient solutions is proposed and illustrated through a design knowledge modeling framework. This framework notably takes into account Harrington’s desirability functions and Derringer’s aggregation method. It is carried out through the re-design of a geothermal air conditioning system