Monitoring, reporting and vrification for national REDD+programmes: two proposals

Different options have been suggested by Parties to the UNFCCC (United Framework Convention on Climate Change) for inclusion in national approaches to REDD and REDD + (reduced deforestation, reduced degradation, enhancement of forest carbon stocks, sustainable management of forest, and conservation of forest carbon stocks). This paper proposes that from the practical and technical points of view of designing action for REDD and REDD + at local and sub-national level, as well as from the point of view of the necessary MRV (monitoring, reporting and verification), these should be grouped into three categories: conservation, which is rewarded on the basis of no changes in forest stock, reduced deforestation, in which lowered rates of forest area loss are rewarded, and positive impacts on carbon stock changes in forests remaining forest, which includes reduced degradation, sustainable management of forest of various kinds, and forest enhancement. Thus we have moved degradation, which conventionally is grouped with deforestation, into the forest management group reported as areas remaining forest land, with which it has, in reality, and particularly as regards MRV, much more in common. Secondly, in the context of the fact that REDD/REDD + is to take the form of a national or near-national approach, we argue that while systematic national monitoring is important, it may not be necessary for REDD/REDD + activities, or for national MRV, to be started at equal levels of intensity all over the country. Rather, areas where interventions seem easiest to start may be targeted, and here data measurements may be more rigorous (Tier 3), for example based on stakeholder self-monitoring with independent verification, while in other, untreated areas, a lower level of monitoring may be pursued, at least in the first instance. Treated areas may be targeted for any of the three groups of activities (conservation, reduced deforestation, and positive impact on carbon stock increases in forest remaining forest)

Land change and carbon dynamics in the Colombian Amazon

Tropical deforestation is a significant source of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Quantifying land use changes and associated emissions is critical for reporting and reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. In the Colombian Amazon, areas of forest conversion estimated at biennial intervals using a combination of dense time series of Landsat observations and statistical estimators based on reference data indicate that deforestation is modest (87 kha year-1) relative to surrounding countries and regions. Other land cover and change areas can also be estimated at biennial intervals, including a land cover class representing regrowing secondary forest, which is on average five times larger than the forest-to-pasture conversion. Areas of gain and loss of secondary forest are very small for this region relative to deforestation. Errors in the detection of change negatively impact the precision of the land change area estimates. New methods estimate the uncertainty associated with maps of land change, represented as probability maps of omission and commission of change. These probabilities are higher in the deforestation frontier of the study area, where the fine spatial scale of the disturbances and the low temporal data density make it challenging to detect the changes accurately. The presented methods improve our ability to integrate uncertainty into applications that make use land change maps, such as spatial carbon models. Methods to estimate emissions based on bias-adjusted areas of land change show that net carbon emissions average 10 Tg year-1 (0.22 Mg ha-1 year-1) in the entire study area, and can be further disaggregated by the land cover contributing to the emissions or removals. This dissertation shows that the conversion from forest to pastures has been the largest forest loss pathway in the Colombian Amazon for almost two decades. While there is a small carbon offset due to sequestration by regrowing forests, conversion to pasture is also the main source of carbon emissions associated with land change. The methods and results presented in this dissertation demonstrate the potential of the Landsat archive to enable the quantification of land changes, their uncertainty, and their associated carbon emissions, even in areas with relatively infrequent cloud-free observations

Implications of sampling design and sample size for national carbon accounting systems

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Countries willing to adopt a REDD regime need to establish a national Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system that provides information on forest carbon stocks and carbon stock changes. Due to the extensive areas covered by forests the information is generally obtained by sample based surveys. Most operational sampling approaches utilize a combination of earth-observation data and in-situ field assessments as data sources.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We compared the cost-efficiency of four different sampling design alternatives (simple random sampling, regression estimators, stratified sampling, 2-phase sampling with regression estimators) that have been proposed in the scope of REDD. Three of the design alternatives provide for a combination of in-situ and earth-observation data. Under different settings of remote sensing coverage, cost per field plot, cost of remote sensing imagery, correlation between attributes quantified in remote sensing and field data, as well as population variability and the percent standard error over total survey cost was calculated. The cost-efficiency of forest carbon stock assessments is driven by the sampling design chosen. Our results indicate that the cost of remote sensing imagery is decisive for the cost-efficiency of a sampling design. The variability of the sample population impairs cost-efficiency, but does not reverse the pattern of cost-efficiency of the individual design alternatives.</p> <p>Conclusions, brief summary and potential implications</p> <p>Our results clearly indicate that it is important to consider cost-efficiency in the development of forest carbon stock assessments and the selection of remote sensing techniques. The development of MRV-systems for REDD need to be based on a sound optimization process that compares different data sources and sampling designs with respect to their cost-efficiency. This helps to reduce the uncertainties related with the quantification of carbon stocks and to increase the financial benefits from adopting a REDD regime.</p

The Role and Need for Space-Based Forest Biomass-Related Measurements in Environmental Management and Policy

The achievement of international goals and national commitments related to forest conservation and management, climate change, and sustainable development requires credible, accurate, and reliable monitoring of stocks and changes in forest biomass and carbon. Most prominently, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals in particular require data on biomass to monitor progress. Unprecedented opportunities to provide forest biomass data are created by a series of upcoming space-based missions, many of which provide open data targeted at large areas and better spatial resolution biomass monitoring than has previously been achieved. We assess various policy needs for biomass data and recommend a long-term collaborative effort among forest biomass data producers and users to meet these needs. A gap remains, however, between what can be achieved in the research domain and what is required to support policy making and meet reporting requirements. There is no single biomass dataset that serves all users in terms of definition and type of biomass measurement, geographic area, and uncertainty requirements, and whether there is need for the most recent up-to-date biomass estimate or a long-term biomass trend. The research and user communities should embrace the potential strength of the multitude of upcoming missions in combination to provide for these varying needs and to ensure continuity for long-term data provision which one-off research missions cannot provide. International coordination bodies such as Global Forest Observations Initiative (GFOI), Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), and Global Observation of Forest Cover and Land Dynamics (GOFC‐GOLD) will be integral in addressing these issues in a way that fulfils these needs in a timely fashion. Further coordination work should particularly look into how space-based data can be better linked with field reference data sources such as forest plot networks, and there is also a need to ensure that reference data cover a range of forest types, management regimes, and disturbance regimes worldwide

Reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD): a climate change mitigation strategy on a critical track

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Following recent discussions, there is hope that a mechanism for reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) will be agreed by the Parties of the UNFCCC at their 15th meeting in Copenhagen in 2009 as an eligible action to prevent climate changes and global warming in post-2012 commitment periods. Countries introducing a REDD-regime in order to generate benefits need to implement sound monitoring and reporting systems and specify the associated uncertainties. The principle of conservativeness addresses the problem of estimation errors and requests the reporting of reliable minimum estimates (RME). Here the potential to generate benefits from applying a REDD-regime is proposed with reference to sampling and non-sampling errors that influence the reliability of estimated activity data and emission factors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A framework for calculating carbon benefits by including assessment errors is developed. Theoretical, sample based considerations as well as a simulation study for five selected countries with low to high deforestation and degradation rates show that even small assessment errors (5% and less) may outweigh successful efforts to reduce deforestation and degradation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The generation of benefits from REDD is possible only in situations where assessment errors are carefully controlled.</p

An assessment of monitoring requirements and costs of 'Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation'

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Negotiations on a future climate policy framework addressing Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) are ongoing. Regardless of how such a framework will be designed, many technical solutions of estimating forest cover and forest carbon stock change exist to support policy in monitoring and accounting. These technologies typically combine remotely sensed data with ground-based inventories. In this article we assess the costs of monitoring REDD based on available technologies and requirements associated with key elements of REDD policy.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We find that the design of a REDD policy framework (and specifically its rules) can have a significant impact on monitoring costs. Costs may vary from 0.5 to 550 US$ per square kilometre depending on the required precision of carbon stock and area change detection. Moreover, they follow economies of scale, i.e. single country or project solutions will face relatively higher monitoring costs.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although monitoring costs are relatively small compared to other cost items within a REDD system, they should be shared not only among countries but also among sectors, because an integrated monitoring system would have multiple benefits for non-REDD management. Overcoming initialization costs and unequal access to monitoring technologies is crucial for implementation of an integrated monitoring system, and demands for international cooperation.</p