Country selectivity in aid allocation: Evidence on need and effectiveness

Over $200 billion was spent in foreign assistance in 2022, yet most donors do not have explicit criteria for allocating their resources. The misallocation of foreign aid resources can create huge inefficiencies that potentially stifle its effectiveness. This study produces evidence for the optimal allocation of foreign assistance across the dimensions of country need and potential effectiveness for donors that seek to maximize their impact on poverty reduction through economic growth. My research uses quantitative methods to examine the two most relevant allocation factors for the goal of poverty reduction through growth: need and effectiveness. The first chapter reviews the aid allocation literature and proposes a conceptual framework to guide the rest of the analysis. The second chapter explores a needs-based approach across the dimensions of the development challenge and the resources available. The two different components of country need both suggest a strong focus on allocating assistance towards the poorest countries. The third chapter examines the differential effectiveness of aid at a macro level for different criteria employed by performance-based approaches – i.e., is foreign aid more effective in promoting economic growth in better-governed and more democratic countries? I find that the aid-growth relationship is much stronger for worse-governed and less democratic countries. The fourth chapter exploits micro data to examine differences in project-level outcomes for both needs-based and performance-based aid allocation criteria. In find that good governance is the most important country-level factor, followed by higher average income, corruption is insignificant, and democracy may be a detriment to achieving project outcomes. The fifth chapter concludes by comparing the current allocation of assistance to more evidence-based optimal allocation models, and I find that too much assistance goes to richer countries and strategic partners. I conclude by providing recommendations for improving the effectiveness of foreign assistance through revised allocation criteria based on the findings of the preceding chapters

Ultra-processed foods and cardiometabolic health

The overall aim of my thesis was to investigate the associations between ultra-processed food consumption (UPF) and cardiometabolic health at the individual and the population-level while adhering to methodological principles such as incorporating and presenting a multiverse of statistical results and interpreting statistical hypothesis testing in a non-dichotomous way. I addressed these aims in three studies: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 41 prospective cohort studies, an ecological, longitudinal cross-country comparison, and a prospective analysis in the UK EPIC-Norfolk cohort. The research presented in this dissertation revealed consistent associations between UPFs and adverse cardiometabolic health. The results of the systematic review and meta-analyses of chapter 2 provided the first systematic analysis of published nutritional epidemiology studies from the perspective of food processing. I defined UPF consumption more broadly and identified studies in which UPF consumption had been termed in several different but related ways, such as fast, convenience, or Western foods. I combined those diets and dietary pattern studies that were characterized by a higher relative intake of UPFs in non-linear and summary random-effects meta-analysis estimates. Higher intakes of UPFs were associated with both an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Higher sales of UPF were associated with an increased risk of adiposity and diabetes mellitus in the country-level analysis in chapter 3, using data from 76 countries across all five continents over 16 years. The panel analysis demonstrated that a strong and consistent association existed between the sales of UPFs at the food system level and adiposity and diabetes prevalence in low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs) for children, adolescent, and adult populations, as well as for both sexes separately. This finding adds value to the literature because no previous study had systematically investigated these associations in countries in which often a lack of individual data exists and had estimated associations for LMICs and high-income countries (HICs) separately. However, the analysis did not establish an association between UPF and adiposity in HICs, which was surprising, given that previous studies indicating an association at the individual level were mostly from HICs. The lack of variability in UPF data from HICs during the study period were likely a key reason for the lack of estimated associations in HICs. As a consequence of the many combinations of data processing and analytical methods and the variability of point estimates and P-values, no particular set of point estimates was emphasized, but the consistency of findings indicate that the expansion of global adiposity and diabetes since 2000 can partially be attributed to the increased sales of UPFs, at the level of the food system or country. The associations that were found in the meta-analysis and the panel study were replicated in prospective analyses of detailed data from over 17,000 individuals in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort, yielding associations between increased UPF intake and adiposity as well as risk of T2DM and CVD. This study demonstrated that the way UPF intake is operationalized can fundamentally influence results. Previous UPF studies had only expressed UPFs as weight or the proportion of food weight, with the justification that energy measures would not capture the non-calorific components of UPFs with potentially adverse effects on health. Guided by previous nutritional epidemiological research to adjust for total energy intake, I modelled UPF and disease risks in five different ways. The analyses revealed that these different approaches affect the statistical results, but also that they affect the results differently for different diseases. For example, the differences between measures of UPF intake based on energy and weight were much more pronounced for T2DM as an outcome than for CVD, suggesting that potentially different mechanisms relating to dietary energy and other factors common to UPFs might be responsible for different outcomes. Chapter four was also the first research to comprehensively test the associations between UPF and three important cardiometabolic disease outcomes (adiposity, T2DM, and CVD) in a prospective cohort with a long follow-up period. The findings of an almost consistent positive association provide the strongest evidence to date that UPFs are positively associated with adverse risk of cardiometabolic health. The secondary analyses of eight different food groups and outcomes indicated that greater consumption of ultra-processed meat, fish, and eggs; fast foods; and SSBs are associated with an increased risk of T2DM and CVD, whereas consumption of ultra-processed fruits and vegetables, milk and diary, fats, and breads and cereals might not be associated with an increased risk of disease. Bodyweight is likely a very important mediator of the association between UPF and T2DM and CVD, while increased total energy intake through UPFs is likely the most important driver of the UPF-adiposity association

Public Health Surveillance of Construction Site Injuries in Delhi, India Using the First Information Reports (FIRs) Registered by Delhi Police

Background: An injury surveillance system can inform strategies to reduce the incidence of injuries. Aim: To explore whether the First Information Reports (FIRs) of Indian police can form the basis of an unintentional injuries surveillance system. Methods: Initially, a systematic review of literature on “The use of police records for injury surveillance” was undertaken. Three different but related studies were then conducted. The Minimum Data Set (MDS) recommended for injury surveillance was identified in the first study; a tool for the extraction of data from FIRs was also developed, and its inter-rater reliability was assessed using Cohen’s Kappa; the percentage availability of each MDS data item in the FIRs was calculated. The total numbers of fatal and nonfatal construction site injuries in the Delhi population in 2017 were estimated by applying the two-sample capture-recapture method in the second study. The third study describes the epidemiology of construction site injuries in Delhi between 2016 and 2018. Results: The systematic review of literature showed that police records are a potentially useful source of information on unintentional injuries. The first study identified 12 MDS data items for injury surveillance; FIRs were found to contain complete information on 5 MDS data items but for 7 MDS data items, information was less complete. The second study estimated that FIRs ascertained 37%, 42.6% and 30.2% of the estimated total, fatal and non-fatal construction site injuries respectively. The third study found that 1,227 construction workers sustained injuries in 939 construction site incidents. Male workers (87%) and workers in the age group of 22 to 44 years (58.77%) accounted for most of those injured. The risk of a fatal injury was higher in migrant workers. The nonfatal injury rate per 100,000 workers per year was almost 3 times higher in female workers (98.55; 95% CI 82.52 to 116.8) than in male workers (34.36; 95%CI 31.92 to 36.94). Workers were at higher risk of injury in the rainy season and during 12:00 to 16:00 hours. Electricians and plumbers were the trade groups at higher risk of injury. Construction sites of government companies, and construction through a construction company, and works related to water supply, road construction, and power generation/distribution works were associated with higher odds of fatal injuries. The head (including face and eyes) was most prone to injury. Conclusion: Information on injuries can be reliably extracted from FIRs, however FIRs occasionally have incomplete information on some of the MDS data items. Furthermore, any epidemiological estimates made using these data must be adjusted to allow for the approximately two-thirds of injuries not reported to the police. Enforcement of existing legal provisions and the training of police personnel could help to reduce the ‘missingness’ of MDS data items and help to improve the ascertainment of injuries by FIRs. Imputation of missing data may help to improve the system further

Partially Organised, Partially Successful? - A Case Study of the Partial Organisation of the COVAX Initiative

Master's Thesis in Public AdministrationAORG351MASV-PUBA

Energy for All: Harnessing the Power of Energy Access for Chronic Poverty Reduction

Policy makers are trying to balance the demands of three broad objectives in the energy sector; energy security to ensure economic stability and growth; reducing energy poverty, by ensuring access to electricity and clean-combusting fuels and equipment for the poor; and managing greenhouse gas emissions from energy. The World Energy Council has called this the "energy trilemma" - of how to achieve an appropriate balance between these sometimes conflicting objectives. Over the past two years, the challenge of providing people living in poverty with access to modern energy has been prominent in policy debates. The UN Secretary General's Sustainable Energy for All initiative is instrumental in highlighting the importance of energy access for poverty reduction. Some developing countries are now drawing-up national strategies for Sustainable Energy for All and over the next few years, attention is likely to continue in the debates about the post-2015 development agenda and during the UN Decade for Sustainable Energy for All (2014-24). However, and despite this policy focus, governments sometimes overlook the needs of chronically poor people when initiating energy for all programmes as they are often the most difficult for energy service providers to reach, and are least able to afford services when they are available. Chronically poor people therefore need to be explicitly considered in measures to deliver energy services. Research and policy evaluation tells us that access to electricity, together with the assets which enable its use in a transformational way, improved cooking technologies, and mechanical power can help people to escape from persistent poverty. There are three broad policy areas which can help achieve this: - expanding electricity coverage and distributing clean-combusting fuels and equipment to populations not yet served; - improving the ability of the poorest people to afford these when they are available; - enhancing the reliability of energy services. This is important if energy is to contribute in a transformational way to escaping poverty. A minimalist approach will not do - energy is needed by poor households for productive uses as well as domestic and community needs. This CPAN Policy Guide provides guidance for developing country policy makers and their advisers when considering the specific measures necessary to ensure that chronically poor people are included in efforts to deliver sustainable energy for all. It is therefore intended for policy and programme designers and implementers in energy agencies, as well as policymakers in ministries of finance and planning, energy, rural development and health alongside those in local government. One message from this guide is that co-ordination and inter-sectoral collaboration is required to ensure that the expansion of energy services contributes to poverty reduction

Addressing dynamic spatial governance landscapes in Latin America. An inquiry into spatial governance and planning systems in six Latin American countries.

L'abstract è presente nell'allegato / the abstract is in the attachmen

Re-Imagining School Feeding : A High-Return Investment in Human Capital and Local Economies

Analysis shows that a quality education, combined with a guaranteed package of health and nutrition interventions at school, such as school feeding, can contribute to child and adolescent development and build human capital. School feeding programs can help get children into school and help them stay there, increasing enrollment and reducing absenteeism. Once children are in the classroom, these programs can contribute to their learning by avoiding hunger and enhancing cognitive abilities. The benefits are especially great for the poorest and most disadvantaged children. As highlighted in the World Bank’s 2018 World Development Report (World Bank 2018), countries need to prioritize learning, not just schooling. Children must be healthy, not hungry, if they are to match learning opportunities with the ability to learn. In the most vulnerable communities, nutrition-sensitive school meals can offer children a regular source of nutrients that are essential for their mental and physical development. And for the growing number of countries with a “double burden” of undernutrition and emerging obesity problems, well-designed school meals can help set children on the path toward more healthy diets. In Latin America, for example, where there is a growing burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), school feeding programs are a key intervention in reducing undernutrition and promoting healthy diet choices. Mexico’s experience reducing sugary beverages in school cafeterias, for example, was found to be beneficial in advancing a healthy lifestyle. A large trial of school-based interventions in China also found that nutritional or physical activity interventions alone are not as effective as a joint program that combines nutritional and educational interventions. In poor communities, economic benefits from school feeding programs are also evident—reducing poverty by boosting income for households and communities as a whole. For families, the value of meals in school is equivalent to about 10 percent of a household’s income. For families with several children, that can mean substantial savings. As a result, school feeding programs are often part of social safety nets in poor countries, and they can be a stable way to reliably target pro-poor investments into communities, as well as a system that can be scaled up rapidly to respond to crises. There are also direct economic benefits for smallholder farmers in the community. Buying local food creates stable markets, boosting local agriculture, impacting rural transformation, and strengthening local food systems. In Brazil, for example, 30 percent of all purchases for school feeding come from smallholder agriculture (Drake and others 2016). These farmers are oftentimes parents with schoolchildren, helping them break intergenerational cycles of hunger and poverty. Notably, benefits to households and communities offer important synergies. The economic growth in poor communities helps provide stability and better-quality education and health systems that promote human capital. At the same time, children and adolescents grow up to enjoy better employment and social opportunities as their communities grow

Eastern and Western Ideas for African Growth

The West and the East approach economic development differently. The Europeans and Americans stress free and fair business climate, promoting private activities generally without picking winners, and improving governance. East Asia is interested in achieving concrete results and projects rather than formal correctness, prioritizing a few sectors for industrialization, and eventual graduation from aid. The West mostly shapes shifting strategies of the international donor community while the East has in reality made remarkable progress in industrial catch-up. The two approaches cannot be merged easily but they can be used in proper combination to realize growth and economic transformation. This book proposes more dialogue and complementarity between the two in the development effort of Africa and other regions. In this collected volume, contributed by experts and practitioners from both East and West, the need to introduce Eastern ideas to the global development strategy is emphasized. Analysis of British and other Western donor policies is given while Japanese, Korean, and other Asian approaches are also explained with concrete examples. The concept of governance for growth is presented and the impact of rising China on development studies is contemplated. The practices of industrial policy dialogues and actions assisted by East Asian experts are reported from Tunisia, Zambia, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and others. The book should be applicable to all donors, institutions, NGOs and business enterprises engaged in development cooperation

Progress in Landslide Research and Technology, Volume 1 Issue 2, 2022

This open access book provides an overview of the progress in landslide research and technology and is part of a book series of the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL). It gives an overview of recent progress in landslide research and technology for practical applications and the benefit for the society contributing to understanding and reducing landslide disaster risk