ANALIZING WATER FRAMEWORK DIRECTIVE IMPACTS USING A MULTINOMIAL LOGIT LAND USE MODEL

We develop a two-stage, multinomial logit model of UK land use to investigate the impact of policy changes upon agriculture. The model utilizes a large panel database covering the entirety of England and Wales for 14 years between 1969 and 2004 integrated with the economic and physical environment determinants of all major agricultural land use types. Our model performs well in out-of-sample prediction of current land use and we use it to assess a proposed implementation of the Water Framework Directive via a tax on fertilizer. Results indicate that such policy change would generate substantial switching from arable to grassland systems, reducing significantly the amount of nitrate leaching into UK water-bodies.Water Framework Directive, Land use models, Discrete choice models, Multinomial logit, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

A TWO-STAGE MODEL OF THE DEMAND FOR SPECIALTY CROP INSURANCE

Legislators are considering raising catastrophic (CAT 50% coverage) crop insurance premiums. However, estimates of a two-stage coverage-choice and participation model using county-level data from California grape growers show that the demand for CAT insurance is price-elastic, therefore, premium increases will worsen the financial performance of the grape-insurance program.crop insurance, discrete / continuous choice, grapes, multinomial logit, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty,

Determinants of Grain Postharvest Storage Technology Choices in Malawi

The study was conducted to determine factors influencing farmers’ choice of grain postharvest storage technologies. The study utilises IHS-3 data conducted by the National Statistics Office (NSO) in Malawi from March 2010 to March 2011. A stratified two-stage sample design was used for IHS-3.The multinomial logit model was used to analyse the factors. The results from the multinomial logit model revealed that farm size, education, production and marital status had an influence in choosing the grain storage technologies. The results further revealed that farm size and education were highly significant (p<0.001) in influencing the choice of grain storage technologies. The study, recommends that stakeholders should ensure that farmers have access to farm land to enhance production and access to education to change farmers’ perception on grain storage technologies to reduce grain loss thereby improving food security. Keywords: Multinomial Logit, Postharvest Storage Technology, Malaw

Location-Price Competition in Airline Networks

This paper addresses location-then-price competition in airline market as a two-stage game of n players on the graph. Passenger’s demand distribution is described by multinomial logit model. Equilibrium in price game is computed through best response dynamics. We solve location game using backward induction, knowing that airlines will choose prices from equilibrium for the second-stage game. Some numerical results for airline market under consideration are presented

Alternative approaches to multilevel modelling of survey noncontact and refusal

We review three alternative approaches to modelling survey noncontact and refusal: multinomial, sequential and sample selection (bivariate probit) models. We then propose a multilevel extension of the sample selection model to allow for both interviewer effects and dependency between noncontact and refusal rates at the household and interviewer level. All methods are applied and compared in an analysis of household nonresponse in the UK, using a dataset with unusually rich information on both respondents and nonrespondents from six major surveys. After controlling for household characteristics, there is little evidence of residual correlation between the unobserved characteristics affecting noncontact and refusal propensities at either the household or the interviewer level. We also find that the estimated coefficients of the multinomial and sequential models are surprisingly similar, which further investigation via a simulation study suggests is due to there being little overlap between the predictors of noncontact and refusal

Modeling toothpaste brand choice: An empirical comparison of artificial neural networks and multinomial probit model

Copyright @ 2010 Atlantis PressThe purpose of this study is to compare the performances of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Multinomial Probit (MNP) approaches in modeling the choice decision within fast moving consumer goods sector. To do this, based on 2597 toothpaste purchases of a panel sample of 404 households, choice models are built and their performances are compared on the 861 purchases of a test sample of 135 households. Results show that ANN's predictions are better while MNP is useful in providing marketing insight

A new look at gender effects in participation and occupation choice

The growth in female labour participation and occupational attainment represents the most dramatic feature of labour markets in the second half of the twentieth century. This has been due in part to developments in social attitudes and the consequent changes in the prices attached to women's characteristics, and in part to changes in those characteristics themselves. This paper analyses these issues by constructing models of participation and occupational choice for the years 1970 and 1990, and then by evaluating which participation and occupation regimes would have been selected by respondents with the characteristics of women observed in 1970 had they faced the coefficients which obtained in 1990. It is established that changing prices accounts for a substantial part of the improvement in women's fortunes in the labour market. To provide a basis of comparison, the model is also estimated for men. Choices concerning occupational and labour market participation are modelled using both the standard multinomial