11,747 research outputs found
Sensitivity analysis for ReaxFF reparameterization using the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion
We apply a global sensitivity method, the Hilbert-Schmidt independence
criterion (HSIC), to the reparameterization of a Zn/S/H ReaxFF force field to
identify the most appropriate parameters for reparameterization. Parameter
selection remains a challenge in this context as high dimensional optimizations
are prone to overfitting and take a long time, but selecting too few parameters
leads to poor quality force fields. We show that the HSIC correctly and quickly
identifies the most sensitive parameters, and that optimizations done using a
small number of sensitive parameters outperform those done using a higher
dimensional reasonable-user parameter selection. Optimizations using only
sensitive parameters: 1) converge faster, 2) have loss values comparable to
those found with the naive selection, 3) have similar accuracy in validation
tests, and 4) do not suffer from problems of overfitting. We demonstrate that
an HSIC global sensitivity is a cheap optimization pre-processing step that has
both qualitative and quantitative benefits which can substantially simplify and
speedup ReaxFF reparameterizations.Comment: author accepted manuscrip
Regularised Learning with Selected Physics for Power System Dynamics
Due to the increasing system stability issues caused by the technological
revolutions of power system equipment, the assessment of the dynamic security
of the systems for changing operating conditions (OCs) is nowadays crucial. To
address the computational time problem of conventional dynamic security
assessment tools, many machine learning (ML) approaches have been proposed and
well-studied in this context. However, these learned models only rely on data,
and thus miss resourceful information offered by the physical system. To this
end, this paper focuses on combining the power system dynamical model together
with the conventional ML. Going beyond the classic Physics Informed Neural
Networks (PINNs), this paper proposes Selected Physics Informed Neural Networks
(SPINNs) to predict the system dynamics for varying OCs. A two-level structure
of feed-forward NNs is proposed, where the first NN predicts the generator bus
rotor angles (system states) and the second NN learns to adapt to varying OCs.
We show a case study on an IEEE-9 bus system that considering selected physics
in model training reduces the amount of needed training data. Moreover, the
trained model effectively predicted long-term dynamics that were beyond the
time scale of the collected training dataset (extrapolation)
A Finite Element-Inspired Hypergraph Neural Network: Application to Fluid Dynamics Simulations
An emerging trend in deep learning research focuses on the applications of
graph neural networks (GNNs) for mesh-based continuum mechanics simulations.
Most of these learning frameworks operate on graphs wherein each edge connects
two nodes. Inspired by the data connectivity in the finite element method, we
present a method to construct a hypergraph by connecting the nodes by elements
rather than edges. A hypergraph message-passing network is defined on such a
node-element hypergraph that mimics the calculation process of local stiffness
matrices. We term this method a finite element-inspired hypergraph neural
network, in short FEIH()-GNN. We further equip the proposed network with
rotation equivariance, and explore its capability for modeling unsteady fluid
flow systems. The effectiveness of the network is demonstrated on two common
benchmark problems, namely the fluid flow around a circular cylinder and
airfoil configurations. Stabilized and accurate temporal roll-out predictions
can be obtained using the -GNN framework within the interpolation
Reynolds number range. The network is also able to extrapolate moderately
towards higher Reynolds number domain out of the training range
latent Dirichlet allocation method-based nowcasting approach for prediction of silver price
Silver is a metal that offers significant value to both investors and companies. The purpose of this study is to make an estimation of the price of silver. While making this estimation, it is planned to include the frequency of searches on Google Trends for the words that affect the silver price. Thus, it is aimed to obtain a more accurate estimate. First, using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation method, the keywords to be analyzed in Google Trends were collected from various articles on the Internet. Mining data from Google Trends combined with the information obtained by LDA is the new approach this study took, to predict the price of silver. No study has been found in the literature that has adopted this approach to estimate the price of silver. The estimation was carried out with Random Forest Regression, Gaussian Process Regression, Support Vector Machine, Regression Trees and Artificial Neural Networks methods. In addition, ARIMA, which is one of the traditional methods that is widely used in time series analysis, was also used to benchmark the accuracy of the methodology. The best MSE ratio was obtained as 0,000227131 ± 0.0000235205 by the Regression Trees method. This score indicates that it would be a valid technique to estimate the price of "Silver" by using Google Trends data using the LDA method
Discovering the hidden structure of financial markets through bayesian modelling
Understanding what is driving the price of a financial asset is a question that is currently mostly unanswered. In this work we go beyond the classic one step ahead prediction and instead construct models that create new information on the behaviour of these time series. Our aim is to get a better understanding of the hidden structures that drive the moves of each financial time series and thus the market as a whole.
We propose a tool to decompose multiple time series into economically-meaningful variables to explain the endogenous and exogenous factors driving their underlying variability. The methodology we introduce goes beyond the direct model forecast. Indeed, since our model continuously adapts its variables and coefficients, we can study the time series of coefficients and selected variables. We also present a model to construct the causal graph of relations between these time series and include them in the exogenous factors.
Hence, we obtain a model able to explain what is driving the move of both each specific time series and the market as a whole. In addition, the obtained graph of the time series provides new information on the underlying risk structure of this environment. With this deeper understanding of the hidden structure we propose novel ways to detect and forecast risks in the market. We investigate our results with inferences up to one month into the future using stocks, FX futures and ETF futures, demonstrating its superior performance according to accuracy of large moves, longer-term prediction and consistency over time. We also go in more details on the economic interpretation of the new variables and discuss the created graph structure of the market.Open Acces
Statistical-dynamical analyses and modelling of multi-scale ocean variability
This thesis aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of multi-scale oceanic variabilities using various statistical and dynamical tools and explore the data-driven methods for correct statistical emulation of the oceans. We considered the classical, wind-driven, double-gyre ocean circulation model in quasi-geostrophic approximation and obtained its eddy-resolving solutions in terms of potential vorticity anomaly and geostrophic streamfunctions. The reference solutions possess two asymmetric gyres of opposite circulations and a strong meandering eastward jet separating them with rich eddy activities around it, such as the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic and Kuroshio in the North Pacific.
This thesis is divided into two parts. The first part discusses a novel scale-separation method based on the local spatial correlations, called correlation-based decomposition (CBD), and provides a comprehensive analysis of mesoscale eddy forcing. In particular, we analyse the instantaneous and time-lagged interactions between the diagnosed eddy forcing and the evolving large-scale PVA using the novel `product integral' characteristics. The product integral time series uncover robust causality between two drastically different yet interacting flow quantities, termed `eddy backscatter'. We also show data-driven augmentation of non-eddy-resolving ocean models by feeding them the eddy fields to restore the missing eddy-driven features, such as the merging western boundary currents, their eastward extension and low-frequency variabilities of gyres.
In the second part, we present a systematic inter-comparison of Linear Regression (LR), stochastic and deep-learning methods to build low-cost reduced-order statistical emulators of the oceans. We obtain the forecasts on seasonal and centennial timescales and assess them for their skill, cost and complexity. We found that the multi-level linear stochastic model performs the best, followed by the ``hybrid stochastically-augmented deep learning models''. The superiority of these methods underscores the importance of incorporating core dynamics, memory effects and model errors for robust emulation of multi-scale dynamical systems, such as the oceans.Open Acces
Predictive Maintenance of Critical Equipment for Floating Liquefied Natural Gas Liquefaction Process
Predictive Maintenance of Critical Equipment for Liquefied Natural Gas Liquefaction Process
Meeting global energy demand is a massive challenge, especially with the quest of more affinity towards sustainable and cleaner energy. Natural gas is viewed as a bridge fuel to a renewable energy. LNG as a processed form of natural gas is the fastest growing and cleanest form of fossil fuel. Recently, the unprecedented increased in LNG demand, pushes its exploration and processing into offshore as Floating LNG (FLNG). The offshore topsides gas processes and liquefaction has been identified as one of the great challenges of FLNG. Maintaining topside liquefaction process asset such as gas turbine is critical to profitability and reliability, availability of the process facilities. With the setbacks of widely used reactive and preventive time-based maintenances approaches, to meet the optimal reliability and availability requirements of oil and gas operators, this thesis presents a framework driven by AI-based learning approaches for predictive maintenance. The framework is aimed at leveraging the value of condition-based maintenance to minimises the failures and downtimes of critical FLNG equipment (Aeroderivative gas turbine).
In this study, gas turbine thermodynamics were introduced, as well as some factors affecting gas turbine modelling. Some important considerations whilst modelling gas turbine system such as modelling objectives, modelling methods, as well as approaches in modelling gas turbines were investigated. These give basis and mathematical background to develop a gas turbine simulated model. The behaviour of simple cycle HDGT was simulated using thermodynamic laws and operational data based on Rowen model. Simulink model is created using experimental data based on Rowen’s model, which is aimed at exploring transient behaviour of an industrial gas turbine. The results show the capability of Simulink model in capture nonlinear dynamics of the gas turbine system, although constraint to be applied for further condition monitoring studies, due to lack of some suitable relevant correlated features required by the model.
AI-based models were found to perform well in predicting gas turbines failures. These capabilities were investigated by this thesis and validated using an experimental data obtained from gas turbine engine facility. The dynamic behaviours gas turbines changes when exposed to different varieties of fuel. A diagnostics-based AI models were developed to diagnose different gas turbine engine’s failures associated with exposure to various types of fuels. The capabilities of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique have been harnessed to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and extract good features for the diagnostics model development.
Signal processing-based (time-domain, frequency domain, time-frequency domain) techniques have also been used as feature extraction tools, and significantly added more correlations to the dataset and influences the prediction results obtained. Signal processing played a vital role in extracting good features for the diagnostic models when compared PCA. The overall results obtained from both PCA, and signal processing-based models demonstrated the capabilities of neural network-based models in predicting gas turbine’s failures. Further, deep learning-based LSTM model have been developed, which extract features from the time series dataset directly, and hence does not require any feature extraction tool. The LSTM model achieved the highest performance and prediction accuracy, compared to both PCA-based and signal processing-based the models.
In summary, it is concluded from this thesis that despite some challenges related to gas turbines Simulink Model for not being integrated fully for gas turbine condition monitoring studies, yet data-driven models have proven strong potentials and excellent performances on gas turbine’s CBM diagnostics. The models developed in this thesis can be used for design and manufacturing purposes on gas turbines applied to FLNG, especially on condition monitoring and fault detection of gas turbines. The result obtained would provide valuable understanding and helpful guidance for researchers and practitioners to implement robust predictive maintenance models that will enhance the reliability and availability of FLNG critical equipment.Petroleum Technology Development Funds (PTDF) Nigeri
Annals [...].
Pedometrics: innovation in tropics; Legacy data: how turn it useful?; Advances in soil sensing; Pedometric guidelines to systematic soil surveys.Evento online. Coordenado por: Waldir de Carvalho Junior, Helena Saraiva Koenow Pinheiro, Ricardo Simão Diniz Dalmolin
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