Estimating Local Function Complexity via Mixture of Gaussian Processes

Real world data often exhibit inhomogeneity, e.g., the noise level, the sampling distribution or the complexity of the target function may change over the input space. In this paper, we try to isolate local function complexity in a practical, robust way. This is achieved by first estimating the locally optimal kernel bandwidth as a functional relationship. Specifically, we propose Spatially Adaptive Bandwidth Estimation in Regression (SABER), which employs the mixture of experts consisting of multinomial kernel logistic regression as a gate and Gaussian process regression models as experts. Using the locally optimal kernel bandwidths, we deduce an estimate to the local function complexity by drawing parallels to the theory of locally linear smoothing. We demonstrate the usefulness of local function complexity for model interpretation and active learning in quantum chemistry experiments and fluid dynamics simulations.Comment: 19 pages, 16 figure

Estimating linear functionals in nonlinear regression with responses missing at random

We consider regression models with parametric (linear or nonlinear) regression function and allow responses to be ``missing at random.'' We assume that the errors have mean zero and are independent of the covariates. In order to estimate expectations of functions of covariate and response we use a fully imputed estimator, namely an empirical estimator based on estimators of conditional expectations given the covariate. We exploit the independence of covariates and errors by writing the conditional expectations as unconditional expectations, which can now be estimated by empirical plug-in estimators. The mean zero constraint on the error distribution is exploited by adding suitable residual-based weights. We prove that the estimator is efficient (in the sense of H\'{a}jek and Le Cam) if an efficient estimator of the parameter is used. Our results give rise to new efficient estimators of smooth transformations of expectations. Estimation of the mean response is discussed as a special (degenerate) case.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOS642 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Control of Complex Dynamic Systems by Neural Networks

This paper considers the use of neural networks (NN's) in controlling a nonlinear, stochastic system with unknown process equations. The NN is used to model the resulting unknown control law. The approach here is based on using the output error of the system to train the NN controller without the need to construct a separate model (NN or other type) for the unknown process dynamics. To implement such a direct adaptive control approach, it is required that connection weights in the NN be estimated while the system is being controlled. As a result of the feedback of the unknown process dynamics, however, it is not possible to determine the gradient of the loss function for use in standard (back-propagation-type) weight estimation algorithms. Therefore, this paper considers the use of a new stochastic approximation algorithm for this weight estimation, which is based on a 'simultaneous perturbation' gradient approximation that only requires the system output error. It is shown that this algorithm can greatly enhance the efficiency over more standard stochastic approximation algorithms based on finite-difference gradient approximations

A flexible space-variant anisotropic regularisation for image restoration with automated parameter selection

We propose a new space-variant anisotropic regularisation term for variational image restoration, based on the statistical assumption that the gradients of the target image distribute locally according to a bivariate generalised Gaussian distribution. The highly flexible variational structure of the corresponding regulariser encodes several free parameters which hold the potential for faithfully modelling the local geometry in the image and describing local orientation preferences. For an automatic estimation of such parameters, we design a robust maximum likelihood approach and report results on its reliability on synthetic data and natural images. For the numerical solution of the corresponding image restoration model, we use an iterative algorithm based on the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM). A suitable preliminary variable splitting together with a novel result in multivariate non-convex proximal calculus yield a very efficient minimisation algorithm. Several numerical results showing significant quality-improvement of the proposed model with respect to some related state-of-the-art competitors are reported, in particular in terms of texture and detail preservation

Self-similar prior and wavelet bases for hidden incompressible turbulent motion

This work is concerned with the ill-posed inverse problem of estimating turbulent flows from the observation of an image sequence. From a Bayesian perspective, a divergence-free isotropic fractional Brownian motion (fBm) is chosen as a prior model for instantaneous turbulent velocity fields. This self-similar prior characterizes accurately second-order statistics of velocity fields in incompressible isotropic turbulence. Nevertheless, the associated maximum a posteriori involves a fractional Laplacian operator which is delicate to implement in practice. To deal with this issue, we propose to decompose the divergent-free fBm on well-chosen wavelet bases. As a first alternative, we propose to design wavelets as whitening filters. We show that these filters are fractional Laplacian wavelets composed with the Leray projector. As a second alternative, we use a divergence-free wavelet basis, which takes implicitly into account the incompressibility constraint arising from physics. Although the latter decomposition involves correlated wavelet coefficients, we are able to handle this dependence in practice. Based on these two wavelet decompositions, we finally provide effective and efficient algorithms to approach the maximum a posteriori. An intensive numerical evaluation proves the relevance of the proposed wavelet-based self-similar priors.Comment: SIAM Journal on Imaging Sciences, 201