Stance detection on social media: State of the art and trends

Stance detection on social media is an emerging opinion mining paradigm for various social and political applications in which sentiment analysis may be sub-optimal. There has been a growing research interest for developing effective methods for stance detection methods varying among multiple communities including natural language processing, web science, and social computing. This paper surveys the work on stance detection within those communities and situates its usage within current opinion mining techniques in social media. It presents an exhaustive review of stance detection techniques on social media, including the task definition, different types of targets in stance detection, features set used, and various machine learning approaches applied. The survey reports state-of-the-art results on the existing benchmark datasets on stance detection, and discusses the most effective approaches. In addition, this study explores the emerging trends and different applications of stance detection on social media. The study concludes by discussing the gaps in the current existing research and highlights the possible future directions for stance detection on social media.Comment: We request withdrawal of this article sincerely. We will re-edit this paper. Please withdraw this article before we finish the new versio

Towards Evaluating Veracity of Textual Statements on the Web

The quality of digital information on the web has been disquieting due to the absence of careful checking. Consequently, a large volume of false textual information is being produced and disseminated with misstatements of facts. The potential negative influence on the public, especially in time-sensitive emergencies, is a growing concern. This concern has motivated this thesis to deal with the problem of veracity evaluation. In this thesis, we set out to develop machine learning models for the veracity evaluation of textual claims based on stance and user engagements. Such evaluation is achieved from three aspects: news stance detection engaged user replies in social media and the engagement dynamics. First of all, we study stance detection in the context of online news articles where a claim is predicted to be true if it is supported by the evidential articles. We propose to manifest a hierarchical structure among stance classes: the high-level aims at identifying relatedness, while the low-level aims at classifying, those identified as related, into the other three classes, i.e., agree, disagree, and discuss. This model disentangles the semantic difference of related/unrelated and the other three stances and helps address the class imbalance problem. Beyond news articles, user replies on social media platforms also contain stances and can infer claim veracity. Claims and user replies in social media are usually short and can be ambiguous; to deal with semantic ambiguity, we design a deep latent variable model with a latent distribution to allow multimodal semantic distribution. Also, marginalizing the latent distribution enables the model to be more robust in relatively smalls-sized datasets. Thirdly, we extend the above content-based models by tracking the dynamics of user engagement in misinformation propagation. To capture these dynamics, we formulate user engagements as a dynamic graph and extract its temporal evolution patterns and geometric features based on an attention-modified Temporal Point Process. This allows to forecast the cumulative number of engaged users and can be useful in assessing the threat level of an individual piece of misinformation. The ability to evaluate veracity and forecast the scale growth of engagement networks serves to practically assist the minimization of online false information’s negative impacts

Analyzing Granger causality in climate data with time series classification methods

Attribution studies in climate science aim for scientifically ascertaining the influence of climatic variations on natural or anthropogenic factors. Many of those studies adopt the concept of Granger causality to infer statistical cause-effect relationships, while utilizing traditional autoregressive models. In this article, we investigate the potential of state-of-the-art time series classification techniques to enhance causal inference in climate science. We conduct a comparative experimental study of different types of algorithms on a large test suite that comprises a unique collection of datasets from the area of climate-vegetation dynamics. The results indicate that specialized time series classification methods are able to improve existing inference procedures. Substantial differences are observed among the methods that were tested

Stock Market Prediction via Deep Learning Techniques: A Survey

The stock market prediction has been a traditional yet complex problem researched within diverse research areas and application domains due to its non-linear, highly volatile and complex nature. Existing surveys on stock market prediction often focus on traditional machine learning methods instead of deep learning methods. Deep learning has dominated many domains, gained much success and popularity in recent years in stock market prediction. This motivates us to provide a structured and comprehensive overview of the research on stock market prediction focusing on deep learning techniques. We present four elaborated subtasks of stock market prediction and propose a novel taxonomy to summarize the state-of-the-art models based on deep neural networks from 2011 to 2022. In addition, we also provide detailed statistics on the datasets and evaluation metrics commonly used in the stock market. Finally, we highlight some open issues and point out several future directions by sharing some new perspectives on stock market prediction

Context-Aware Message-Level Rumour Detection with Weak Supervision

Social media has become the main source of all sorts of information beyond a communication medium. Its intrinsic nature can allow a continuous and massive flow of misinformation to make a severe impact worldwide. In particular, rumours emerge unexpectedly and spread quickly. It is challenging to track down their origins and stop their propagation. One of the most ideal solutions to this is to identify rumour-mongering messages as early as possible, which is commonly referred to as "Early Rumour Detection (ERD)". This dissertation focuses on researching ERD on social media by exploiting weak supervision and contextual information. Weak supervision is a branch of ML where noisy and less precise sources (e.g. data patterns) are leveraged to learn limited high-quality labelled data (Ratner et al., 2017). This is intended to reduce the cost and increase the efficiency of the hand-labelling of large-scale data. This thesis aims to study whether identifying rumours before they go viral is possible and develop an architecture for ERD at individual post level. To this end, it first explores major bottlenecks of current ERD. It also uncovers a research gap between system design and its applications in the real world, which have received less attention from the research community of ERD. One bottleneck is limited labelled data. Weakly supervised methods to augment limited labelled training data for ERD are introduced. The other bottleneck is enormous amounts of noisy data. A framework unifying burst detection based on temporal signals and burst summarisation is investigated to identify potential rumours (i.e. input to rumour detection models) by filtering out uninformative messages. Finally, a novel method which jointly learns rumour sources and their contexts (i.e. conversational threads) for ERD is proposed. An extensive evaluation setting for ERD systems is also introduced

Deep neural networks for identification of sentential relations

Natural language processing (NLP) is one of the most important technologies in the information age. Understanding complex language utterances is also a crucial part of artificial intelligence. Applications of NLP are everywhere because people communicate mostly in language: web search, advertisement, emails, customer service, language translation, etc. There are a large variety of underlying tasks and machine learning models powering NLP applications. Recently, deep learning approaches have obtained exciting performance across a broad array of NLP tasks. These models can often be trained in an end-to-end paradigm without traditional, task-specific feature engineering. This dissertation focuses on a specific NLP task --- sentential relation identification. Successfully identifying the relations of two sentences can contribute greatly to some downstream NLP problems. For example, in open-domain question answering, if the system can recognize that a new question is a paraphrase of a previously observed question, the known answers can be returned directly, avoiding redundant reasoning. For another, it is also helpful to discover some latent knowledge, such as inferring ``the weather is good today'' from another description ``it is sunny today''. This dissertation presents some deep neural networks (DNNs) which are developed to handle this sentential relation identification problem. More specifically, this problem is addressed by this dissertation in the following three aspects. (i) Sentential relation representation is built on the matching between phrases of arbitrary lengths. Stacked Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are employed to model the sentences, so that each filter can cover a local phrase, and filters in lower level span shorter phrases and filters in higher level span longer phrases. CNNs in stack enable to model sentence phrases in different granularity and different abstraction. (ii) Phrase matches contribute differently to the tasks. This motivates us to propose an attention mechanism in CNNs for these tasks, differing from the popular research of attention mechanisms in Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). Attention mechanisms are implemented in both convolution layer as well as pooling layer in deep CNNs, in order to figure out automatically which phrase of one sentence matches a specific phrase of the other sentence. These matches are supposed to be indicative to the final decision. Another contribution in terms of attention mechanism is inspired by the observation that some sentential relation identification task, like answer selection for multi-choice question answering, is mainly determined by phrase alignments of stronger degree; in contrast, some tasks such as textual entailment benefit more from the phrase alignments of weaker degree. This motivates us to propose a dynamic ``attentive pooling'' to select phrase alignments of different intensities for different task categories. (iii) In certain scenarios, sentential relation can only be successfully identified within specific background knowledge, such as the multi-choice question answering based on passage comprehension. In this case, the relation between two sentences (question and answer candidate) depends on not only the semantics in the two sentences, but also the information encoded in the given passage. Overall, the work in this dissertation models sentential relations in hierarchical DNNs, different attentions and different background knowledge. All systems got state-of-the-art performances in representative tasks.Die Verarbeitung natürlicher Sprachen (engl.: natural language processing - NLP) ist eine der wichtigsten Technologien des Informationszeitalters. Weiterhin ist das Verstehen komplexer sprachlicher Ausdrücke ein essentieller Teil künstlicher Intelligenz. Anwendungen von NLP sind überall zu finden, da Menschen haupt\-säch\-lich über Sprache kommunizieren: Internetsuchen, Werbung, E-Mails, Kundenservice, Übersetzungen, etc. Es gibt eine große Anzahl Tasks und Modelle des maschinellen Lernens für NLP-Anwendungen. In den letzten Jahren haben Deep-Learning-Ansätze vielversprechende Ergebnisse für eine große Anzahl verschiedener NLP-Tasks erzielt. Diese Modelle können oft end-to-end trainiert werden, kommen also ohne auf den Task zugeschnittene Feature aus. Diese Dissertation hat einen speziellen NLP-Task als Fokus: Sententielle Relationsidentifizierung. Die Beziehung zwischen zwei Sätzen erfolgreich zu erkennen, kann die Performanz für nachfolgende NLP-Probleme stark verbessern. Für open-domain question answering, zum Beispiel, kann ein System, das erkennt, dass eine neue Frage eine Paraphrase einer bereits gesehenen Frage ist, die be\-kann\-te Antwort direkt zurückgeben und damit mehrfaches Schlussfolgern vermeiden. Zudem ist es auch hilfreich, zu Grunde liegendes Wissen zu entdecken, so wie das Schließen der Tatsache "das Wetter ist gut" aus der Beschreibung "es ist heute sonnig". Diese Dissertation stellt einige tiefe neuronale Netze (eng.: deep neural networks - DNNs) vor, die speziell für das Problem der sententiellen Re\-la\-tions\-i\-den\-ti\-fi\-zie\-rung entwickelt wurden. Im Speziellen wird dieses Problem in dieser Dissertation unter den folgenden drei Aspekten behandelt: (i) Sententielle Relationsrepr\"{a}sentationen basieren auf einem Matching zwischen Phrasen beliebiger Länge. Tiefe convolutional neural networks (CNNs) werden verwendet, um diese Sätze zu modellieren, sodass jeder Filter eine lokale Phrase abdecken kann, wobei Filter in niedrigeren Schichten kürzere und Filter in höheren Schichten längere Phrasen umfassen. Tiefe CNNs machen es möglich, Sätze in unterschiedlichen Granularitäten und Abstraktionsleveln zu modellieren. (ii) Matches zwischen Phrasen tragen unterschiedlich zu unterschiedlichen Tasks bei. Das motiviert uns, einen Attention-Mechanismus für CNNs für diese Tasks einzuführen, der sich von dem bekannten Attention-Mechanismus für recurrent neural networks (RNNs) unterscheidet. Wir implementieren Attention-Mechanismen sowohl im convolution layer als auch im pooling layer tiefer CNNs, um herauszufinden, welche Phrasen eines Satzes bestimmten Phrasen eines anderen Satzes entsprechen. Wir erwarten, dass solche Matches die finale Entscheidung stark beeinflussen. Ein anderer Beitrag zu Attention-Mechanismen wurde von der Beobachtung inspiriert, dass einige sententielle Relationsidentifizierungstasks, zum Beispiel die Auswahl einer Antwort für multi-choice question answering hauptsächlich von Phrasen\-a\-lignie\-rungen stärkeren Grades bestimmt werden. Im Gegensatz dazu profitieren andere Tasks wie textuelles Schließen mehr von Phrasenalignierungen schwächeren Grades. Das motiviert uns, ein dynamisches "attentive pooling" zu entwickeln, um Phrasenalignierungen verschiedener Stärken für verschiedene Taskkategorien auszuwählen. (iii) In bestimmten Szenarien können sententielle Relationen nur mit entsprechendem Hintergrundwissen erfolgreich identifiziert werden, so wie multi-choice question answering auf der Grundlage des Verständnisses eines Absatzes. In diesem Fall hängt die Relation zwischen zwei Sätzen (der Frage und der möglichen Antwort) nicht nur von der Semantik der beiden Sätze, sondern auch von der in dem gegebenen Absatz enthaltenen Information ab. Insgesamt modellieren die in dieser Dissertation enthaltenen Arbeiten sententielle Relationen in hierarchischen DNNs, mit verschiedenen Attention-Me\-cha\-nis\-men und wenn unterschiedliches Hintergrundwissen zur Verf\ {u}gung steht. Alle Systeme erzielen state-of-the-art Ergebnisse für die entsprechenden Tasks

Dependency Syntax in the Automatic Detection of Irony and Stance

[ES] The present thesis is part of the broad panorama of studies of Natural Language Processing (NLP). In particular, it is a work of Computational Linguistics (CL) designed to study in depth the contribution of syntax in the field of sentiment analysis and, therefore, to study texts extracted from social media or, more generally, online content. Furthermore, given the recent interest of the scientific community in the Universal Dependencies (UD) project, which proposes a morphosyntactic annotation format aimed at creating a "universal" representation of the phenomena of morphology and syntax in a manifold of languages, in this work we made use of this format, thinking of a study in a multilingual perspective (Italian, English, French and Spanish). In this work we will provide an exhaustive presentation of the morphosyntactic annotation format of UD, in particular underlining the most relevant issues regarding their application to UGC. Two tasks will be presented, and used as case studies, in order to test the research hypotheses: the first case study will be in the field of automatic Irony Detection and the second in the area of Stance Detection. In both cases, historical notes will be provided that can serve as a context for the reader, an introduction to the problems faced will be outlined and the activities proposed in the computational linguistics community will be described. Furthermore, particular attention will be paid to the resources currently available as well as to those developed specifically for the study of the aforementioned phenomena. Finally, through the description of a series of experiments, both within evaluation campaigns and within independent studies, I will try to describe the contribution that syntax can provide to the resolution of such tasks. This thesis is a revised collection of my three-year PhD career and collocates within the growing trend of studies devoted to make Artificial Intelligence results more explainable, going beyond the achievement of highest scores in performing tasks, but rather making their motivations understandable and comprehensible for experts in the domain. The novel contribution of this work mainly consists in the exploitation of features that are based on morphology and dependency syntax, which were used in order to create vectorial representations of social media texts in various languages and for two different tasks. Such features have then been paired with a manifold of machine learning classifiers, with some neural networks and also with the language model BERT. Results suggest that fine-grained dependency-based syntactic information is highly informative for the detection of irony, and less informative for what concerns stance detection. Nonetheless, dependency syntax might still prove useful in the task of stance detection if firstly irony detection is considered as a preprocessing step. I also believe that the dependency syntax approach that I propose could shed some light on the explainability of a difficult pragmatic phenomenon such as irony.[CA] La presente tesis se enmarca dentro del amplio panorama de estudios relacionados con el Procesamiento del Lenguaje Natural (NLP). En concreto, se trata de un trabajo de Lingüística Computacional (CL) cuyo objetivo principal es estudiar en profundidad la contribución de la sintaxis en el campo del análisis de sentimientos y, en concreto, aplicado a estudiar textos extraídos de las redes sociales o, más en general, de contenidos online. Además, dado el reciente interés de la comunidad científica por el proyecto Universal Dependencies (UD), en el que se propone un formato de anotación morfosintáctica destinado a crear una representación "universal" de la morfología y sintaxis aplicable a diferentes idiomas, en este trabajo se utiliza este formato con el propósito de realizar un estudio desde una perspectiva multilingüe (italiano, inglés, francés y español). En este trabajo se presenta una descripción exhaustiva del formato de anotación morfosintáctica de UD, en particular, subrayando las cuestiones más relevantes en cuanto a su aplicación a los UGC generados en las redes sociales. El objetivo final es analizar y comprobar si estas anotaciones morfosintácticas sirven para obtener información útil para los modelos de detección de la ironía y del stance o posicionamiento. Se presentarán dos tareas y se utilizarán como ejemplos de estudio para probar las hipótesis de la investigación: el primer caso se centra en el área de la detección automática de la ironía y el segundo en el área de la detección del stance o posicionamiento. En ambos casos, se proporcionan los antecendentes y trabajos relacionados notas históricas que pueden servir de contexto para el lector, se plantean los problemas encontrados y se describen las distintas actividades propuestas para resolver estos problemas en la comunidad de la lingüística computacional. Se presta especial atención a los recursos actualmente disponibles, así como a los desarrollados específicamente para el estudio de los fenómenos antes mencionados. Finalmente, a través de la descripción de una serie de experimentos, llevados a cabo tanto en campañas de evaluación como en estudios independientes, se describe la contribución que la sintaxis puede brindar a la resolución de esas tareas. Esta tesis es el resultado de toda la investigación que he llevado a cabo durante mi doctorado en una colección revisada de mi carrera de doctorado de los últimos tres años y medio, y se ubica dentro de la tendencia creciente de estudios dedicados a hacer que los resultados de la Inteligencia Artificial sean más explicables, yendo más allá del logro de puntajes más altos en la realización de tareas, sino más bien haciendo comprensibles sus motivaciones y qué los procesos sean más comprensibles para los expertos en el dominio. La contribución principal y más novedosa de este trabajo consiste en la explotación de características (o rasgos) basadas en la morfología y la sintaxis de dependencias, que se utilizaron para crear las representaciones vectoriales de textos procedentes de redes sociales en varios idiomas y para dos tareas diferentes. A continuación, estas características se han combinado con una variedad de clasificadores de aprendizaje automático, con algunas redes neuronales y también con el modelo de lenguaje BERT. Los resultados sugieren que la información sintáctica basada en dependencias utilizada es muy informativa para la detección de la ironía y menos informativa en lo que respecta a la detección del posicionamiento. No obstante, la sintaxis basada en dependencias podría resultar útil en la tarea de detección del posicionamiento si, en primer lugar, la detección de ironía se considera un paso previo al procesamiento en la detección del posicionamiento. También creo que el enfoque basado casi completamente en sintaxis de dependencias que propongo en esta tesis podría ayudar a explicar mejor un fenómeno prag[EN] La present tesi s'emmarca dins de l'ampli panorama d'estudis relacionats amb el Processament del Llenguatge Natural (NLP). En concret, es tracta d'un treball de Lingüística Computacional (CL), l'objectiu principal del qual és estudiar en profunditat la contribució de la sintaxi en el camp de l'anàlisi de sentiments i, en concret, aplicat a l'estudi de textos extrets de les xarxes socials o, més en general, de continguts online. A més, el recent interès de la comunitat científica pel projecte Universal Dependències (UD), en el qual es proposa un format d'anotació morfosintàctica destinat a crear una representació "universal" de la morfologia i sintaxi aplicable a diferents idiomes, en aquest treball s'utilitza aquest format amb el propòsit de realitzar un estudi des d'una perspectiva multilingüe (italià, anglès, francès i espanyol). En aquest treball es presenta una descripció exhaustiva del format d'anotació morfosintàctica d'UD, en particular, posant més èmfasi en les qüestions més rellevants pel que fa a la seva aplicació als UGC generats a les xarxes socials. L'objectiu final és analitzar i comprovar si aquestes anotacions morfosintàctiques serveixen per obtenir informació útil per als sistemes de detecció de la ironia i del stance o posicionament. Es presentaran dues tasques i s'utilitzaran com a exemples d'estudi per provar les hipòtesis de la investigació: el primer cas se centra en l'àrea de la detecció automàtica de la ironia i el segon en l'àrea de la detecció del stance o posicionament. En tots dos casos es proporcionen els antecedents i treballs relacionats que poden servir de context per al lector, es plantegen els problemes trobats i es descriuen les diferents activitats proposades per resoldre aquests problemes en la comunitat de la lingüística computacional. Es fa especialment referència als recursos actualment disponibles, així com als desenvolupats específicament per a l'estudi dels fenòmens abans esmentats. Finalment, a través de la descripció d'una sèrie d'experiments, duts a terme tant en campanyes d'avaluació com en estudis independents, es descriu la contribució que la sintaxi pot oferir a la resolució d'aquestes tasques. Aquesta tesi és el resultat de tota la investigació que he dut a terme durant el meu doctorat els últims tres anys i mig, i se situa dins de la tendència creixent d'estudis dedicats a fer que els resultats de la Intel·ligència Artificial siguin més explicables, que vagin més enllà de l'assoliment de puntuacions més altes en la realització de tasques, sinó més aviat fent comprensibles les seves motivacions i què els processos siguin més comprensibles per als experts en el domini. La contribució principal i més nova d'aquest treball consisteix en l'explotació de característiques (o trets) basades en la morfologia i la sintaxi de dependències, que s'utilitzen per crear les representacions vectorials de textos procedents de xarxes socials en diversos idiomes i per a dues tasques diferents. A continuació, aquestes característiques s'han combinat amb una varietat de classificadors d'aprenentatge automàtic, amb algunes xarxes neuronals i també amb el model de llenguatge BERT. Els resultats suggereixen que la informació sintàctica utilitzada basada en dependències és molt informativa per a la detecció de la ironia i menys informativa pel que fa a la detecció del posicionament. Malgrat això, la sintaxi basada en dependències podria ser útil en la tasca de detecció del posicionament si, en primer lloc, la detecció d'ironia es considera un pas previ al processament en la detecció del posicionament. També crec que l'enfocament basat gairebé completament en sintaxi de dependències que proposo en aquesta tesi podria ajudar a explicar millor un fenomen pragmàtic tan difícil de detectar i d'interpretar com la ironia.Cignarella, AT. (2021). Dependency Syntax in the Automatic Detection of Irony and Stance [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/177639TESI