Evaluación de la vulnerabilidad de sistemas eléctricos por medio de programación multinivel: una revisión bibliográfica

Vulnerability studies can identify critical elements in electric power systems in order to take protective measures against possible scenarios that may result in load shedding, which can be caused by natural events or deliberate attacks. This article is a literature review on the latter kind, i.e., the interdiction problem, which assumes there is a disruptive agent whose objective is to maximize the damage to the system, while the network operator acts as a defensive agent. The non-simultaneous interaction of these two agents creates a multilevel optimization problem, and the literature has reported several interdiction models and solution methods to address it. The main contribution of this paper is presenting the considerations that should be taken into account to analyze, model, and solve the interdiction problem, including the most common solution techniques, applied methodologies, and future studies. This literature review found that most research in this area is focused on the analysis of transmission systems considering linear approximations of the network, and a few interdiction studies use an AC model of the network or directly treat distribution networks from a multilevel standpoint. Future challenges in this field include modeling and incorporating new defense options for the network operator, such as distributed generation, demand response, and the topological reconfiguration of the system.f the system.Los estudios de vulnerabilidad pueden identificar elementos críticos en los sistemas de distribución de potencia eléctrica con el fin de tomar medidas de protección contra posibles escenarios que pueden resultar en desconexión de carga (también llamado deslastre de carga), que puede ser ocasionada por eventos naturales o ataques deliberados. Este artículo es una reseña bibliográfica sobre el segundo tipo de casos, es decir, los del problema de interdicción, en el que se asume la existencia de un agente disruptivo cuyo objetivo es maximizar los daños ocasionados al sistema mientras el operador de red actúa como agente de defensa del mismo. La interacción no simultánea de estos dos agentes crea un problema de optimización multinivel y en la bibliografía se reportan varios modelos de interdicción y soluciones para abordar el problema. La contribución principal de este artículo es la presentación de consideraciones que deben tomarse en cuenta para analizar, modelar y resolver el problema de la interdicción, incluyendo las soluciones, métodos y técnicas más comunes para solucionarlo, así como futuros estudios al respecto. Esta revisión encontró que la mayoría de la investigación en el tema se enfoca en el análisis de los sistemas de transmisión, considerando las aproximaciones lineales de la red; algunos estudios en interdicción usan un modelo AC de la red o tratan las redes de distribución directamente desde un enfoque multinivel. Algunos retos en este campo son el modelado y la inclusión de nuevas opciones de defensa para el operador de la red, como la generación distribuida, la respuesta a la demanda y la reconfiguración topológica del sistema.&nbsp

Multi-follower tri-level decision making with uncooperative followers

© 2014 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. All rights reserved. Multi-follower tri-level (MFTL) decision making addresses compromises among three interacting decision units within a hierarchical system of which multiple followers are involved in two lower-level units. The leader’s decision is affected not only by reactions of the followers but also by various relationships among them. The uncooperative relationship is the most basic situation in MFTL decision cases where multiple followers at the same level make individual decisions without any information exchange or share among them. To support such a MFTL decision, this paper firstly proposes a general model for the decision problem and then develops an extreme-point search algorithm based on bi-level Kth-Best approach to solve the model. Finally, a numerical experiment illustrates the decision model and procedures of the extreme-point search algorithm

Multi-Level Multi-Objective Programming and Optimization for Integrated Air Defense System Disruption

The U.S. military\u27s ability to project military force is being challenged. This research develops and demonstrates the application of three respective sensor location, relocation, and network intrusion models to provide the mathematical basis for the strategic engagement of emerging technologically advanced, highly-mobile, Integrated Air Defense Systems. First, we propose a bilevel mathematical programming model for locating a heterogeneous set of sensors to maximize the minimum exposure of an intruder\u27s penetration path through a defended region. Next, we formulate a multi-objective, bilevel optimization model to relocate surviving sensors to maximize an intruder\u27s minimal expected exposure to traverse a defended border region, minimize the maximum sensor relocation time, and minimize the total number of sensors requiring relocation. Lastly, we present a trilevel, attacker-defender-attacker formulation for the heterogeneous sensor network intrusion problem to optimally incapacitate a subset of the defender\u27s sensors and degrade a subset of the defender\u27s network to ultimately determine the attacker\u27s optimal penetration path through a defended network

Synthesis, Interdiction, and Protection of Layered Networks

This research developed the foundation, theory, and framework for a set of analysis techniques to assist decision makers in analyzing questions regarding the synthesis, interdiction, and protection of infrastructure networks. This includes extension of traditional network interdiction to directly model nodal interdiction; new techniques to identify potential targets in social networks based on extensions of shortest path network interdiction; extension of traditional network interdiction to include layered network formulations; and develops models/techniques to design robust layered networks while considering trade-offs with cost. These approaches identify the maximum protection/disruption possible across layered networks with limited resources, find the most robust layered network design possible given the budget limitations while ensuring that the demands are met, include traditional social network analysis, and incorporate new techniques to model the interdiction of nodes and edges throughout the formulations. In addition, the importance and effects of multiple optimal solutions for these (and similar) models is investigated. All the models developed are demonstrated on notional examples and were tested on a range of sample problem sets

A trilevel programming approach for electric grid defense planning

This paper addresses the allocation of defensive or hardening resources in an electric power grid to mitigate the vulnerability against multiple contingencies. This planning problem is characterized by a defender-attacker-defender model which is formulated as a trilevel programming problem. In the upper level, the system planner identifies the components to be defended or hardened in order to reduce the damage associated with plausible outages. In the middle level,the disruptive agent determines the set of out-of-service components so that the damage in the system is maximized. Finally, in the lower level, the system operator minimizes the damage caused by the outages selected by the disruptive agent by means of an optimal operation of the power system. We propose a novel two-stage solution approach that attains optimality with moderate computational effort. The original trilevel program is first transformed into an equivalent bilevel program, which is subsequently solved by an efficient implicit enumeration algorithm. Numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed methodology

Power Market Cybersecurity and Profit-targeting Cyberattacks

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many companies and business to operate through remote platforms, which has made everyday life and everyone more digitally connected than ever before. The cybersecurity has become a bigger priority in all aspects of life. A few real-world cases have demonstrated the current capability of cyberattacks as in [1], [2], and [3]. These cases invalidate the traditional belief that cyberattacks are unable to penetrate real-world industrial systems. Beyond the physical damage, some attackers target financial arbitrage advantages brought by false data injection attacks (FDIAs) [4]. Malicious breaches into power market operations could induce catastrophic consequences on fair financial settlements and reliable transmission services. In this dissertation, an in-depth study is conducted to investigate power market cybersecurity and profit-targeting cyberattacks. In the first work, we demonstrate the importance of market-level behavior in defending cyberattacks and designing cyberattacks. A market-level defense analysis is developed to help operators identify cyberattacks, and an LMP-disguising attack strategy is developed to disguise the abnormal LMPs, which can bypass both the bad data detection and market-level detection. In the second work, we propose a comprehensive CVA model for delivering a detailed analysis of four aspects of vulnerability: highly probable cyberattack targets, devastating attack targets, risky load levels, and mitigation ability under different degrees of defense. In the third work, we identify that revenue adequacy, a fundamental power market operation criterion, has not been analyzed under the context of cybersecurity, and we explore the impact of FDIAs targeting real-time (RT) market operations on ISO revenue adequacy analytically and numerically. In the last work, we extend the power system cybersecurity analysis to multi-energy system (MES) framework. An optimally coordinated (OC-FDIA) targeting MES is proposed. Then, we show that the OC-FDIA cause much more severe damages than single-system FDIA and uncoordinated FDIAs. Further, an effective countermeasure is developed against the proposed OCFDIA based on deep learning technique (DL)

Reliability Evaluation and Defense Strategy Development for Cyber-physical Power Systems

With the smart grid initiatives in recent years, the electric power grid is rapidly evolving into a complicated and interconnected cyber-physical system. Unfortunately, the wide deployment of cutting-edge communication, control and computer technologies in the power system, as well as the increasing terrorism activities, make the power system at great risk of attacks from both cyber and physical domains. It is pressing and meaningful to investigate the plausible attack scenarios and develop efficient methods for defending the power system against them. To defend the power grid, it is critical to first study how the attacks could happen and affect the power system, which are the basis for the defense strategy development. Thus, this dissertation quantifies the influence of several typical attacks on power system reliability. Specifically, three representative attack are considered, i.e., intrusion against substations, regional LR attack, and coordinated attacks. For the intrusion against substations, the occurrence frequency of the attack events is modeled based on statistical data and human dynamics; game-theoretical approaches are adopted to model induvial and consecutive attack cases; Monte Carlo simulation is deployed to obtain the desired reliability indices, which incorporates both the attacks and the random failures. For the false data injection attack, a practical regional load redistribution (LR) attack strategy is proposed; the man-in-the-middle (MITM) intrusion process is modeled with a semi-Markov process method; the reliability indices are obtained based on the regional LR attack strategy and the MITM intrusion process using Monte Carlo simulation. For the coordinated attacks, a few typical coordination strategies are proposed considering attacking the current-carrying elements as well as attacking the measurements; a bilevel optimization method is applied to develop the optimal coordination strategy. Further, efficient and effective defense strategies are proposed from the perspectives of power system operation strategy and identification of critical elements. Specially, a robustness-oriented power grid operation strategy is proposed considering the element random failures and the risk of man-made attacks. Using this operation strategy, the power system operation is robust, and can minimize the load loss in case of malicious man-made attacks. Also, a multiple-attack-scenario (MAS) defender-attack-defender model is proposed to identify the critical branches that should be defended when an attack is anticipated but the defender has uncertainty about the capability of the attacker. If those identified critical branches are protected, the expected load loss will be minimal