Multiperiodicity, modulations and flip-flops in variable star light curves I. Carrier fit method

The light curves of variable stars are commonly described using simple trigonometric models, that make use of the assumption that the model parameters are constant in time. This assumption, however, is often violated, and consequently, time series models with components that vary slowly in time are of great interest. In this paper we introduce a class of data analysis and visualization methods which can be applied in many different contexts of variable star research, for example spotted stars, variables showing the Blazhko effect, and the spin-down of rapid rotators. The methods proposed are of explorative type, and can be of significant aid when performing a more thorough data analysis and interpretation with a more conventional method.Our methods are based on a straightforward decomposition of the input time series into a fast "clocking" periodicity and smooth modulating curves. The fast frequency, referred to as the carrier frequency, can be obtained from earlier observations (for instance in the case of photometric data the period can be obtained from independently measured radial velocities), postulated using some simple physical principles (Keplerian rotation laws in accretion disks), or estimated from the data as a certain mean frequency. The smooth modulating curves are described by trigonometric polynomials or splines. The data approximation procedures are based on standard computational packages implementing simple or constrained least-squares fit-type algorithms.Comment: 14 pages, 23 figures, submitted to Astronomy and Astrophysic

How many zeros of a random polynomial are real?

We provide an elementary geometric derivation of the Kac integral formula for the expected number of real zeros of a random polynomial with independent standard normally distributed coefficients. We show that the expected number of real zeros is simply the length of the moment curve $(1,t,\ldots,t^n)$ projected onto the surface of the unit sphere, divided by $\pi$. The probability density of the real zeros is proportional to how fast this curve is traced out. We then relax Kac's assumptions by considering a variety of random sums, series, and distributions, and we also illustrate such ideas as integral geometry and the Fubini-Study metric.Comment: 37 page