Trend detection in social networks using Hawkes processes

International audienceWe develop in this paper a trend detection algorithm , designed to find trendy topics being disseminated in a social network. We assume that the broadcasts of messages in the social network is governed by a self-exciting point process, namely a Hawkes process, which takes into consideration the real broadcasting times of messages and the interaction between users and topics. We formally define trendiness and derive trend indices for each topic being disseminated in the social network. These indices take into consideration the time between the detection and the message broadcasts, the distance between the real broadcast intensity and the maximum expected broadcast intensity, and the social network topology. The proposed trend detection algorithm is simple and uses stochastic control techniques in order to calculate the trend indices. It is also fast and aggregates all the information of the broadcasts into a simple one-dimensional process, thus reducing its complexity and the quantity of data necessary to the detection

Community Detection and Growth Potential Prediction from Patent Citation Networks

The scoring of patents is useful for technology management analysis. Therefore, a necessity of developing citation network clustering and prediction of future citations for practical patent scoring arises. In this paper, we propose a community detection method using the Node2vec. And in order to analyze growth potential we compare three ''time series analysis methods'', the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), ARIMA model, and Hawkes Process. The results of our experiments, we could find common technical points from those clusters by Node2vec. Furthermore, we found that the prediction accuracy of the ARIMA model was higher than that of other models.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1607.00653 by other author

A Quantitative Approach to Understanding Online Antisemitism

A new wave of growing antisemitism, driven by fringe Web communities, is an increasingly worrying presence in the socio-political realm. The ubiquitous and global nature of the Web has provided tools used by these groups to spread their ideology to the rest of the Internet. Although the study of antisemitism and hate is not new, the scale and rate of change of online data has impacted the efficacy of traditional approaches to measure and understand these troubling trends. In this paper, we present a large-scale, quantitative study of online antisemitism. We collect hundreds of million posts and images from alt-right Web communities like 4chan's Politically Incorrect board (/pol/) and Gab. Using scientifically grounded methods, we quantify the escalation and spread of antisemitic memes and rhetoric across the Web. We find the frequency of antisemitic content greatly increases (in some cases more than doubling) after major political events such as the 2016 US Presidential Election and the "Unite the Right" rally in Charlottesville. We extract semantic embeddings from our corpus of posts and demonstrate how automated techniques can discover and categorize the use of antisemitic terminology. We additionally examine the prevalence and spread of the antisemitic "Happy Merchant" meme, and in particular how these fringe communities influence its propagation to more mainstream communities like Twitter and Reddit. Taken together, our results provide a data-driven, quantitative framework for understanding online antisemitism. Our methods serve as a framework to augment current qualitative efforts by anti-hate groups, providing new insights into the growth and spread of hate online.Comment: To appear at the 14th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM 2020). Please cite accordingl