Features Extraction and Reconstruction of Country Risk based on Empirical EMD

AbstractIn the application of the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), reconstruction to the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) which are obtained by EMD is necessary in order to simplify analysis and make reconstruction results of more economic explanatory power. At present, there are two main reconstruction methods; one is based on the changing of data construction, represented by the fine- to-coarse method, the other one takes the correlation of the IMFs into consideration, for example, calculating the correlation between the marginal spectrums of different IMFs. In order to study the internal unity and differences between the two methods, country risk data of the BRICS countries are selected to make the empirical analysis. The results are as follows. Firstly, it is not reasonable that the residue obtained by the EMD is directly regarded as the trend of the original data. Secondly, by fine-to-coarse, all the IMFs can be reconstructed to three time scales, which are denoted as high-frequency mode, low-frequency mode and trend respectively, but explanation of these scales for the real situation is not satisfactory. At last, trend which is extracted based on the correlation of the IMF marginal spectrums can describe the basic behavior of the original data. Contrasted to fine-to-coarse, the results obtained by the second method are more reasonable

Modeling and Optimal Operation of Hydraulic, Wind and Photovoltaic Power Generation Systems

The transition to 100% renewable energy in the future is one of the most important ways of achieving "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" and of reducing the adverse effects of climate change. In this process, the safe, stable and economical operation of renewable energy generation systems, represented by hydro-, wind and solar power, is particularly important, and has naturally become a key concern for researchers and engineers. Therefore, this book focuses on the fundamental and applied research on the modeling, control, monitoring and diagnosis of renewable energy generation systems, especially hydropower energy systems, and aims to provide some theoretical reference for researchers, power generation departments or government agencies

PROGNOSIS - Historical Pattern Matching for Economic Forecasting and Trading

In recent years financial markets have become complex environments that continuously change and they change quickly. The strong link between the continuous change in the markets and the danger of losing money when trading in them, has made financial studies a domain that concentrates increasing scientific and business attention. In this context, the development of computational techniques that can monitor recent financial events can process them according to their similarity with historical data recordings, and can support financial decision making, is a challenging problem. In this work, the principal idea for tackling this problem is the integration of 'current' market information as derived from the market's recent past and historical information. A robust technique which is based on flexible pattern matching, segmented data representations, time warping, and time series embedding dimension measures is proposed. Complementary time series derived features, concerning trend structures, temporal considerations and statistical measures are systematically combined in this technique. All these components have been integrated into a software package, which I called PROGNOSIS, that can selectively monitor its application and allows systematic evaluation in terms of financial forecasting and trading performance. In addition, two other topics are discussed in this thesis. Firstly, in chapter 3, a neural network, that is known as the Growing Neural Gas network, is employed for financial forecasting and trading. To my knowledge, this network has never been applied before to financial problems. Based on this a neural network forecasting and trading benchmark was constructed for comparison purposes. Secondly, a novel method of approaching the well established co-integraton theory is proposed in the last chapter of the thesis. This method enhances the co-integration theory by integrating into it local time relations between two time series. These local time dependencies are identified using dynamic time warping. The hypothesis that is tested is that local time shifts, delays, shrinks or stretches, if identified, may help to reveal co-integrating movement between the two time series. I called this type of co-integration time-warped co-integration. To this end, the time-warped co-integration framework is presented as an error correction model and it is tested on arbitrage trading opportunities within PROGNOSIS

Matching Temporal Signatures of Solar Features to Their Corresponding Solar-Wind Outflows

The role of small-scale coronal eruptive phenomena in the generation and heating of the solar wind remains an open question. Here, we investigate the role played by coronal jets in forming the solar wind by testing whether temporal variations associated with jetting in EUV intensity can be identified in the outflowing solar-wind plasma. This type of comparison is challenging due to inherent differences between remote-sensing observations of the source and in-situ observations of the outflowing plasma, as well as travel time and evolution of the solar wind throughout the heliosphere. To overcome these, we propose a novel algorithm combining signal filtering, two-step solar-wind ballistic back-mapping, window shifting, and Empirical Mode Decomposition. We first validate the method using synthetic data, before applying it to measurements from the Solar Dynamics Observatory and Wind spacecraft. The algorithm enables the direct comparison of remote-sensing observations of eruptive phenomena in the corona to in-situ measurements of solar-wind parameters, among other potential uses. After application to these datasets, we find several time windows where signatures of dynamics found in the corona are embedded in the solar-wind stream, at a time significantly earlier than expected from simple ballistic back-mapping, with the best-performing in-situ parameter being the solar-wind mass flux

BEMDEC: An Adaptive and Robust Methodology for Digital Image Feature Extraction

The intriguing study of feature extraction, and edge detection in particular, has, as a result of the increased use of imagery, drawn even more attention not just from the field of computer science but also from a variety of scientific fields. However, various challenges surrounding the formulation of feature extraction operator, particularly of edges, which is capable of satisfying the necessary properties of low probability of error (i.e., failure of marking true edges), accuracy, and consistent response to a single edge, continue to persist. Moreover, it should be pointed out that most of the work in the area of feature extraction has been focused on improving many of the existing approaches rather than devising or adopting new ones. In the image processing subfield, where the needs constantly change, we must equally change the way we think. In this digital world where the use of images, for variety of purposes, continues to increase, researchers, if they are serious about addressing the aforementioned limitations, must be able to think outside the box and step away from the usual in order to overcome these challenges. In this dissertation, we propose an adaptive and robust, yet simple, digital image features detection methodology using bidimensional empirical mode decomposition (BEMD), a sifting process that decomposes a signal into its two-dimensional (2D) bidimensional intrinsic mode functions (BIMFs). The method is further extended to detect corners and curves, and as such, dubbed as BEMDEC, indicating its ability to detect edges, corners and curves. In addition to the application of BEMD, a unique combination of a flexible envelope estimation algorithm, stopping criteria and boundary adjustment made the realization of this multi-feature detector possible. Further application of two morphological operators of binarization and thinning adds to the quality of the operator

Nonlinear and factorization methods for the non-invasive investigation of the central nervous system

This thesis focuses on the functional study of the Central Nervous System (CNS) with non-invasive techniques. Two different aspects are investigated: nonlinear aspects of the cerebrovascular system, and the muscle synergies model for motor control strategies. The main objective is to propose novel protocols, post-processing procedures or indices to enhance the analysis of cerebrovascular system and human motion analysis with noninvasive devices or wearable sensors in clinics and rehabilitation. We investigated cerebrovascular system with Near-infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS), a technique measuring blood oxygenation at the level of microcirculation, whose modification reflects cerebrovascular response to neuronal activation. NIRS signal was analyzed with nonlinear methods, because some physiological systems, such as neurovascular coupling, are characterized by nonlinearity. We adopted Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) to decompose signal into a finite number of simple functions, called Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF). For each IMF, we computed entropy-based features to characterize signal complexity and variability. Nonlinear features of the cerebrovascular response were employed to characterize two treatments. Firstly, we administered a psychotherapy called eye movement desensitization and reprocessing (EMDR) to two groups of patients. The first group performed therapy with eye movements, the second without. NIRS analysis with EMD and entropy-based features revealed a different cerebrovascular pattern between the two groups, that may indicate the efficacy of the psychotherapy when administered with eye movements. Secondly, we administered ozone autohemotherapy to two groups of subjects: a control group of healthy subjects and a group of patients suffering by multiple sclerosis (MS). We monitored the microcirculation with NIRS from oxygen-ozone injection up 1.5 hours after therapy, and 24 hours after therapy. We observed that, after 1.5 hours after the ozonetherapy, oxygenation levels improved in both groups, that may indicate that ozonetherapy reduced oxidative stress level in MS patients. Furthermore, we observed that, after ozonetherapy, autoregulation improved in both groups, and that the beneficial effects of ozonetherapy persisted up to 24 hours after the treatment in MS patients. Due to the complexity of musculoskeletal system, CNS adopts strategies to efficiently control the execution of motor tasks. A model of motor control are muscle synergies, defined as functional groups of muscles recruited by a unique central command. Human locomotion was the object of investigation, due to its importance for daily life and the cyclicity of the movement. Firstly, by exploiting features provided from statistical gait analysis, we investigated consistency of muscle synergies. We demonstrated that synergies are highly repeatable within-subjects, reinforcing the hypothesis of modular control in motor performance. Secondly, in locomotion, we distinguish principal from secondary activations of electromyography. Principal activations are necessary for the generation of the movement. Secondary activations generate supplement movements, for instance slight balance correction. We investigated the difference in the motor control strategies underlying muscle synergies of principal (PS) and secondary (SS) activations. We found that PS are constituted by a few modules with many muscles each, whereas SS are described by more modules than PS with one or two muscles each. Furthermore, amplitude of activation signals of PS is higher than SS. Finally, muscle synergies were adopted to investigate the efficacy of rehabilitation of stiffed-leg walking in lower back pain (LBP). We recruited a group of patients suffering from non-specific LBP stiffening the leg at initial contact. Muscle synergies during gait were extracted before and after rehabilitation. Our results showed that muscles recruitment and consistency of synergies improved after the treatment, showing that the rehabilitation may affect motor control strategies