2,506 research outputs found

    Adversarial De-confounding in Individualised Treatment Effects Estimation

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    Observational studies have recently received significant attention from the machine learning community due to the increasingly available non-experimental observational data and the limitations of the experimental studies, such as considerable cost, impracticality, small and less representative sample sizes, etc. In observational studies, de-confounding is a fundamental problem of individualised treatment effects (ITE) estimation. This paper proposes disentangled representations with adversarial training to selectively balance the confounders in the binary treatment setting for the ITE estimation. The adversarial training of treatment policy selectively encourages treatment-agnostic balanced representations for the confounders and helps to estimate the ITE in the observational studies via counterfactual inference. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets, with varying degrees of confounding, prove that our proposed approach improves the state-of-the-art methods in achieving lower error in the ITE estimation.Comment: accepted to AISTATS 202

    Assisting Clinical Decisions for Scarcely Available Treatment via Disentangled Latent Representation

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    Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is an essential life-supporting modality for COVID-19 patients who are refractory to conventional therapies. However, the proper treatment decision has been the subject of significant debate and it remains controversial about who benefits from this scarcely available and technically complex treatment option. To support clinical decisions, it is a critical need to predict the treatment need and the potential treatment and no-treatment responses. Targeting this clinical challenge, we propose Treatment Variational AutoEncoder (TVAE), a novel approach for individualized treatment analysis. TVAE is specifically designed to address the modeling challenges like ECMO with strong treatment selection bias and scarce treatment cases. TVAE conceptualizes the treatment decision as a multi-scale problem. We model a patient's potential treatment assignment and the factual and counterfactual outcomes as part of their intrinsic characteristics that can be represented by a deep latent variable model. The factual and counterfactual prediction errors are alleviated via a reconstruction regularization scheme together with semi-supervision, and the selection bias and the scarcity of treatment cases are mitigated by the disentangled and distribution-matched latent space and the label-balancing generative strategy. We evaluate TVAE on two real-world COVID-19 datasets: an international dataset collected from 1651 hospitals across 63 countries, and a institutional dataset collected from 15 hospitals. The results show that TVAE outperforms state-of-the-art treatment effect models in predicting both the propensity scores and factual outcomes on heterogeneous COVID-19 datasets. Additional experiments also show TVAE outperforms the best existing models in individual treatment effect estimation on the synthesized IHDP benchmark dataset

    Deep Causal Learning: Representation, Discovery and Inference

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    Causal learning has attracted much attention in recent years because causality reveals the essential relationship between things and indicates how the world progresses. However, there are many problems and bottlenecks in traditional causal learning methods, such as high-dimensional unstructured variables, combinatorial optimization problems, unknown intervention, unobserved confounders, selection bias and estimation bias. Deep causal learning, that is, causal learning based on deep neural networks, brings new insights for addressing these problems. While many deep learning-based causal discovery and causal inference methods have been proposed, there is a lack of reviews exploring the internal mechanism of deep learning to improve causal learning. In this article, we comprehensively review how deep learning can contribute to causal learning by addressing conventional challenges from three aspects: representation, discovery, and inference. We point out that deep causal learning is important for the theoretical extension and application expansion of causal science and is also an indispensable part of general artificial intelligence. We conclude the article with a summary of open issues and potential directions for future work

    Handling non-ignorable dropouts in longitudinal data: A conditional model based on a latent Markov heterogeneity structure

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    We illustrate a class of conditional models for the analysis of longitudinal data suffering attrition in random effects models framework, where the subject-specific random effects are assumed to be discrete and to follow a time-dependent latent process. The latent process accounts for unobserved heterogeneity and correlation between individuals in a dynamic fashion, and for dependence between the observed process and the missing data mechanism. Of particular interest is the case where the missing mechanism is non-ignorable. To deal with the topic we introduce a conditional to dropout model. A shape change in the random effects distribution is considered by directly modeling the effect of the missing data process on the evolution of the latent structure. To estimate the resulting model, we rely on the conditional maximum likelihood approach and for this aim we outline an EM algorithm. The proposal is illustrated via simulations and then applied on a dataset concerning skin cancers. Comparisons with other well-established methods are provided as well

    NAISR: A 3D Neural Additive Model for Interpretable Shape Representation

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    Deep implicit functions (DIFs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm for many computer vision tasks such as 3D shape reconstruction, generation, registration, completion, editing, and understanding. However, given a set of 3D shapes with associated covariates there is at present no shape representation method which allows to precisely represent the shapes while capturing the individual dependencies on each covariate. Such a method would be of high utility to researchers to discover knowledge hidden in a population of shapes. We propose a 3D Neural Additive Model for Interpretable Shape Representation (NAISR) which describes individual shapes by deforming a shape atlas in accordance to the effect of disentangled covariates. Our approach captures shape population trends and allows for patient-specific predictions through shape transfer. NAISR is the first approach to combine the benefits of deep implicit shape representations with an atlas deforming according to specified covariates. Although our driving problem is the construction of an airway atlas, NAISR is a general approach for modeling, representing, and investigating shape populations. We evaluate NAISR with respect to shape reconstruction, shape disentanglement, shape evolution, and shape transfer for the pediatric upper airway. Our experiments demonstrate that NAISR achieves competitive shape reconstruction performance while retaining interpretability.Comment: 20 page

    Variational Temporal Deconfounder for Individualized Treatment Effect Estimation from Longitudinal Observational Data

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    Estimating treatment effects, especially individualized treatment effects (ITE), using observational data is challenging due to the complex situations of confounding bias. Existing approaches for estimating treatment effects from longitudinal observational data are usually built upon a strong assumption of "unconfoundedness", which is hard to fulfill in real-world practice. In this paper, we propose the Variational Temporal Deconfounder (VTD), an approach that leverages deep variational embeddings in the longitudinal setting using proxies (i.e., surrogate variables that serve for unobservable variables). Specifically, VTD leverages observed proxies to learn a hidden embedding that reflects the true hidden confounders in the observational data. As such, our VTD method does not rely on the "unconfoundedness" assumption. We test our VTD method on both synthetic and real-world clinical data, and the results show that our approach is effective when hidden confounding is the leading bias compared to other existing models

    Counterfactual Fairness with Disentangled Causal Effect Variational Autoencoder

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    The problem of fair classification can be mollified if we develop a method to remove the embedded sensitive information from the classification features. This line of separating the sensitive information is developed through the causal inference, and the causal inference enables the counterfactual generations to contrast the what-if case of the opposite sensitive attribute. Along with this separation with the causality, a frequent assumption in the deep latent causal model defines a single latent variable to absorb the entire exogenous uncertainty of the causal graph. However, we claim that such structure cannot distinguish the 1) information caused by the intervention (i.e., sensitive variable) and 2) information correlated with the intervention from the data. Therefore, this paper proposes Disentangled Causal Effect Variational Autoencoder (DCEVAE) to resolve this limitation by disentangling the exogenous uncertainty into two latent variables: either 1) independent to interventions or 2) correlated to interventions without causality. Particularly, our disentangling approach preserves the latent variable correlated to interventions in generating counterfactual examples. We show that our method estimates the total effect and the counterfactual effect without a complete causal graph. By adding a fairness regularization, DCEVAE generates a counterfactual fair dataset while losing less original information. Also, DCEVAE generates natural counterfactual images by only flipping sensitive information. Additionally, we theoretically show the differences in the covariance structures of DCEVAE and prior works from the perspective of the latent disentanglement
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