184 research outputs found

    Webs of Things in the Mind: A New Science of Evidence

    Get PDF
    A Review of Evidence and Inference for the Intelligence Analyst by David Schu

    A study of different representation conventions during investigatory sensemaking

    Get PDF
    Background: During the process of conducting investigations, users structure information externally to help them make sense of what they know, and what they need to know. Software-based visual representations may be a natural place for doing this, but there are a number of types of information structuring that might be supported and hence designed for. Further, there might be important differences in how well different representational conventions support sensemaking. There are questions about what type of representational support might allow these users to be more effective when interacting with information. Aim: To explore the impact that different types of external representational structuring have on performance and user experience during intelligence type investigations. Intelligence analysis represents a difficult example domain were sensemaking is needed. We have a particular interest in the role that timeline representations might play given evidence that people are naturally predisposed to make sense of complex social scenarios by constructing narratives. From this we attempt to quantify possible benefits of timeline representation during investigatory sensemaking, compared with argumentation representation. Method: Participants performed a small investigation using the IEEE 2011 VAST challenge dataset in which they structured information either as a timeline, an argumentation or as they wished (freeform). 30 participants took part in the study. The study used three levels of a between participants independent variable of representation type. The dependent variables were performance (in terms of recall, precision efficiency and understanding) and user experience (in terms of cognitive load, engagement and confidence in understanding). Result: The result shows that the freeform condition experienced a lower cognitive load than the other two: timeline and argument respectively. A post hoc exploratory analysis was conducted to better understand the information behaviour and structuring activities across conditions and to better understand the types of structuring that participants perform in the freeform condition. The analysis resulted in an Embedded Representational Structuring Theory (ERST) that helps to characterise and describe representations primarily in terms of their elements and their relations. Conclusion: The results suggest that: (a) people experienced lower cognitive load when they are free to structure information as they wish, (b) during their investigations, they create complex heterogeneous representations consisting of various entities and multiple relation types and (c) their structuring activities can be described by a finite set of structuring conventions

    Revisiting \u27Dreyfus\u27: A More Complete Account of a Trial by Mathematics

    Get PDF
    Legal literature and case law depicts the infamous conviction of Alfred Dreyfus for treason and espionage in 1899 as a prime example of the irresistible power of even grossly fallacious mathematical demonstrations to overwhelm a legal tribunal. This essay shows that Dreyfus is not a case of mathematics run amok, unchecked and uncomprehended. To the contrary, the defects in the mathematical proof were dramatically exposed, and this evidence did not lead Dreyfus\u27s judges to condemn him. This history undercuts the reliance of modern courts and commentators on Dreyfus as an indication or illustration of the alleged dangers of probability evidence in criminal cases

    Revisiting \u27Dreyfus\u27: A More Complete Account of a Trial by Mathematics

    Get PDF
    Legal literature and case law depicts the infamous conviction of Alfred Dreyfus for treason and espionage in 1899 as a prime example of the irresistible power of even grossly fallacious mathematical demonstrations to overwhelm a legal tribunal. This essay shows that Dreyfus is not a case of mathematics run amok, unchecked and uncomprehended. To the contrary, the defects in the mathematical proof were dramatically exposed, and this evidence did not lead Dreyfus\u27s judges to condemn him. This history undercuts the reliance of modern courts and commentators on Dreyfus as an indication or illustration of the alleged dangers of probability evidence in criminal cases

    The Embedded Epistemologist: Dispatches from the Legal Front

    Get PDF
    In ordinary circumstances, we can assess the worth of evidence well enough without benefit of any theory; but when evidence is especially complex, ambiguous, or emotionally disturbing-as it often is in legal contexts-epistemological theory may be helpful. A legal fact-finder is asked to determine whether the proposition that the defendant is guilty, or is liable, is established to the required degree of proof by the [admissible] evidence presented; i.e., to make an epistemological appraisal. The foundherentist theory developed in Evidence and Inquiry can help us understand what this means; and reveals that degrees of proof cannot be construed as mathematical probabilities: a point illustrated by comparing the advantages of a foundherentist analysis with the disadvantages of probabilistic analyses of the evidence in the Sacco and Vanzetti case (1921), and of the role of the statistical evidence in Collins (1968)

    Two-loop RGEs with Dirac gaugino masses

    Get PDF
    The set of renormalisation group equations to two loop order for general supersymmetric theories broken by soft and supersoft operators is completed. As an example, the explicit expressions for the RGEs in a Dirac gaugino extension of the (N)MSSM are presented.Comment: 10 pages + 24 pages of RGEs in appendix; no figure
    • …
    corecore