Network segregation in a model of misinformation and fact checking

Misinformation under the form of rumor, hoaxes, and conspiracy theories spreads on social media at alarming rates. One hypothesis is that, since social media are shaped by homophily, belief in misinformation may be more likely to thrive on those social circles that are segregated from the rest of the network. One possible antidote is fact checking which, in some cases, is known to stop rumors from spreading further. However, fact checking may also backfire and reinforce the belief in a hoax. Here we take into account the combination of network segregation, finite memory and attention, and fact-checking efforts. We consider a compartmental model of two interacting epidemic processes over a network that is segregated between gullible and skeptic users. Extensive simulation and mean-field analysis show that a more segregated network facilitates the spread of a hoax only at low forgetting rates, but has no effect when agents forget at faster rates. This finding may inform the development of mitigation techniques and overall inform on the risks of uncontrolled misinformation online

Validity of Markovian modeling for transient memory-dependent epidemic dynamics

The initial transient phase of an emerging epidemic is of critical importance for data-driven model building, model-based prediction of the epidemic trend, and articulation of control/prevention strategies. In principle, quantitative models for real-world epidemics need to be memory-dependent or non-Markovian, but this presents difficulties for data collection, parameter estimation, computation and analyses. In contrast, the difficulties do not arise in the traditional Markovian models. To uncover the conditions under which Markovian and non-Markovian models are equivalent for transient epidemic dynamics is outstanding and of significant current interest. We develop a comprehensive computational and analytic framework to establish that the transient-state equivalence holds when the average generation time matches and average removal time, resulting in minimal Markovian estimation errors in the basic reproduction number, epidemic forecasting, and evaluation of control strategy. Strikingly, the errors depend on the generation-to-removal time ratio but not on the specific values and distributions of these times, and this universality will further facilitate prediction rectification. Overall, our study provides a general criterion for modeling memory-dependent processes using the Markovian frameworks

The influence of a transport process on the epidemic threshold

By generating transient encounters between individuals beyond their immediate social environment, transport can have a profound impact on the spreading of an epidemic. In this work, we consider epidemic dynamics in the presence of the transport process that gives rise to a multiplex network model. In addition to a static layer, the (multiplex) epidemic network consists of a second dynamic layer in which any two individuals are connected for the time they occupy the same site during a random walk they perform on a separate transport network. We develop a mean-field description of the stochastic network model and study the influence the transport process has on the epidemic threshold. We show that any transport process generally lowers the epidemic threshold because of the additional connections it generates. In contrast, considering also random walks of fractional order that in some sense are a more realistic model of human mobility, we find that these non-local transport dynamics raise the epidemic threshold in comparison to a classical local random walk. We also test our model on a realistic transport network (the Munich U-Bahn network), and carefully compare mean-field solutions with stochastic trajectories in a range of scenarios.Comment: Version as to appear in the Journal of Mathematical Biology with revised figure

Networks and the epidemiology of infectious disease

The science of networks has revolutionised research into the dynamics of interacting elements. It could be argued that epidemiology in particular has embraced the potential of network theory more than any other discipline. Here we review the growing body of research concerning the spread of infectious diseases on networks, focusing on the interplay between network theory and epidemiology. The review is split into four main sections, which examine: the types of network relevant to epidemiology; the multitude of ways these networks can be characterised; the statistical methods that can be applied to infer the epidemiological parameters on a realised network; and finally simulation and analytical methods to determine epidemic dynamics on a given network. Given the breadth of areas covered and the ever-expanding number of publications, a comprehensive review of all work is impossible. Instead, we provide a personalised overview into the areas of network epidemiology that have seen the greatest progress in recent years or have the greatest potential to provide novel insights. As such, considerable importance is placed on analytical approaches and statistical methods which are both rapidly expanding fields. Throughout this review we restrict our attention to epidemiological issues

Epidemic processes in complex networks

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.Comment: 62 pages, 15 figures, final versio