6,600 research outputs found
Neural Networks for Predicting Algorithm Runtime Distributions
Many state-of-the-art algorithms for solving hard combinatorial problems in
artificial intelligence (AI) include elements of stochasticity that lead to
high variations in runtime, even for a fixed problem instance. Knowledge about
the resulting runtime distributions (RTDs) of algorithms on given problem
instances can be exploited in various meta-algorithmic procedures, such as
algorithm selection, portfolios, and randomized restarts. Previous work has
shown that machine learning can be used to individually predict mean, median
and variance of RTDs. To establish a new state-of-the-art in predicting RTDs,
we demonstrate that the parameters of an RTD should be learned jointly and that
neural networks can do this well by directly optimizing the likelihood of an
RTD given runtime observations. In an empirical study involving five algorithms
for SAT solving and AI planning, we show that neural networks predict the true
RTDs of unseen instances better than previous methods, and can even do so when
only few runtime observations are available per training instance
Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions
We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of
multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for
decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis
problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating"
statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic,
simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the
decision problem. We develop this in time series portfolio analysis using
classes of economically and psychologically relevant multi-step ahead portfolio
utility functions. Studies with multivariate currency, commodity and stock
index time series illustrate the approach and show some of the practical
utility and benefits of the Bayesian emulation methodology.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures, 2 table
Multivariate GARCH estimation via a Bregman-proximal trust-region method
The estimation of multivariate GARCH time series models is a difficult task
mainly due to the significant overparameterization exhibited by the problem and
usually referred to as the "curse of dimensionality". For example, in the case
of the VEC family, the number of parameters involved in the model grows as a
polynomial of order four on the dimensionality of the problem. Moreover, these
parameters are subjected to convoluted nonlinear constraints necessary to
ensure, for instance, the existence of stationary solutions and the positive
semidefinite character of the conditional covariance matrices used in the model
design. So far, this problem has been addressed in the literature only in low
dimensional cases with strong parsimony constraints. In this paper we propose a
general formulation of the estimation problem in any dimension and develop a
Bregman-proximal trust-region method for its solution. The Bregman-proximal
approach allows us to handle the constraints in a very efficient and natural
way by staying in the primal space and the Trust-Region mechanism stabilizes
and speeds up the scheme. Preliminary computational experiments are presented
and confirm the very good performances of the proposed approach.Comment: 35 pages, 5 figure
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