1,062 research outputs found

    Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges

    Full text link
    In this work we provide a review of basic ideas and novel developments about Conformal Prediction -- an innovative distribution-free, non-parametric forecasting method, based on minimal assumptions -- that is able to yield in a very straightforward way predictions sets that are valid in a statistical sense also in in the finite sample case. The in-depth discussion provided in the paper covers the theoretical underpinnings of Conformal Prediction, and then proceeds to list the more advanced developments and adaptations of the original idea.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:0706.3188, arXiv:1604.04173, arXiv:1709.06233, arXiv:1203.5422 by other author

    Automatic Bayesian Density Analysis

    Full text link
    Making sense of a dataset in an automatic and unsupervised fashion is a challenging problem in statistics and AI. Classical approaches for {exploratory data analysis} are usually not flexible enough to deal with the uncertainty inherent to real-world data: they are often restricted to fixed latent interaction models and homogeneous likelihoods; they are sensitive to missing, corrupt and anomalous data; moreover, their expressiveness generally comes at the price of intractable inference. As a result, supervision from statisticians is usually needed to find the right model for the data. However, since domain experts are not necessarily also experts in statistics, we propose Automatic Bayesian Density Analysis (ABDA) to make exploratory data analysis accessible at large. Specifically, ABDA allows for automatic and efficient missing value estimation, statistical data type and likelihood discovery, anomaly detection and dependency structure mining, on top of providing accurate density estimation. Extensive empirical evidence shows that ABDA is a suitable tool for automatic exploratory analysis of mixed continuous and discrete tabular data.Comment: In proceedings of the Thirty-Third AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-19

    Kernel-based Inference of Functions over Graphs

    Get PDF
    The study of networks has witnessed an explosive growth over the past decades with several ground-breaking methods introduced. A particularly interesting -- and prevalent in several fields of study -- problem is that of inferring a function defined over the nodes of a network. This work presents a versatile kernel-based framework for tackling this inference problem that naturally subsumes and generalizes the reconstruction approaches put forth recently by the signal processing on graphs community. Both the static and the dynamic settings are considered along with effective modeling approaches for addressing real-world problems. The herein analytical discussion is complemented by a set of numerical examples, which showcase the effectiveness of the presented techniques, as well as their merits related to state-of-the-art methods.Comment: To be published as a chapter in `Adaptive Learning Methods for Nonlinear System Modeling', Elsevier Publishing, Eds. D. Comminiello and J.C. Principe (2018). This chapter surveys recent work on kernel-based inference of functions over graphs including arXiv:1612.03615 and arXiv:1605.07174 and arXiv:1711.0930

    Semi-Supervised Learning, Causality and the Conditional Cluster Assumption

    Full text link
    While the success of semi-supervised learning (SSL) is still not fully understood, Sch\"olkopf et al. (2012) have established a link to the principle of independent causal mechanisms. They conclude that SSL should be impossible when predicting a target variable from its causes, but possible when predicting it from its effects. Since both these cases are somewhat restrictive, we extend their work by considering classification using cause and effect features at the same time, such as predicting disease from both risk factors and symptoms. While standard SSL exploits information contained in the marginal distribution of all inputs (to improve the estimate of the conditional distribution of the target given inputs), we argue that in our more general setting we should use information in the conditional distribution of effect features given causal features. We explore how this insight generalises the previous understanding, and how it relates to and can be exploited algorithmically for SSL.Comment: 36th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (2020) (Previously presented at the NeurIPS 2019 workshop "Do the right thing": machine learning and causal inference for improved decision making, Vancouver, Canada.

    A review of domain adaptation without target labels

    Full text link
    Domain adaptation has become a prominent problem setting in machine learning and related fields. This review asks the question: how can a classifier learn from a source domain and generalize to a target domain? We present a categorization of approaches, divided into, what we refer to as, sample-based, feature-based and inference-based methods. Sample-based methods focus on weighting individual observations during training based on their importance to the target domain. Feature-based methods revolve around on mapping, projecting and representing features such that a source classifier performs well on the target domain and inference-based methods incorporate adaptation into the parameter estimation procedure, for instance through constraints on the optimization procedure. Additionally, we review a number of conditions that allow for formulating bounds on the cross-domain generalization error. Our categorization highlights recurring ideas and raises questions important to further research.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figure
    corecore