An optimal feedback model to prevent manipulation behaviours in consensus under social network group decision making

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.A novel framework to prevent manipulation behaviour in consensus reaching process under social network group decision making is proposed, which is based on a theoretically sound optimal feedback model. The manipulation behaviour classification is twofold: (1) ‘individual manipulation’ where each expert manipulates his/her own behaviour to achieve higher importance degree (weight); and (2) ‘group manipulation’ where a group of experts force inconsistent experts to adopt specific recommendation advices obtained via the use of fixed feedback parameter. To counteract ‘individual manipulation’, a behavioural weights assignment method modelling sequential attitude ranging from ‘dictatorship’ to ‘democracy’ is developed, and then a reasonable policy for group minimum adjustment cost is established to assign appropriate weights to experts. To prevent ‘group manipulation’, an optimal feedback model with objective function the individual adjustments cost and constraints related to the threshold of group consensus is investigated. This approach allows the inconsistent experts to balance group consensus and adjustment cost, which enhances their willingness to adopt the recommendation advices and consequently the group reaching consensus on the decision making problem at hand. A numerical example is presented to illustrate and verify the proposed optimal feedback model

A question of balance: The benefits of pattern-recognition when solving problems in a complex domain

This is the accepted manuscript version of the following article: M. Lloyd-Kelly, F. Gobet, and Peter C. R. Lane, “A Question of Balance The Benefits of Pattern-Recognition when Solving Problems in a Complex Domain”, LNCS Transactions on Computational Collective Intelligence, Vol. XX, 2015. The final published version is available at: http://www.springer.com/gb/book/9783319275420 © 2015 Springer International Publishing.The dual-process theory of human cognition proposes the existence of two systems for decision-making: a slower, deliberative,problem-solving system and a quicker, reactive, pattern-recognition system. We alter the balance of these systems in a number of computational simulations using three types of agent equipped with a novel, hybrid, human-like cognitive architecture. These agents are situated in the stochastic, multi-agent Tileworld domain, whose complexity can be precisely controlled and widely varied. We explore how agent performance is affected by different balances of problem-solving and pattern-recognition, and conduct a sensitivity analysis upon key pattern-recognition system variables. Results indicate that pattern-recognition improves agent performance by as much as 36.5 % and, if a balance is struck with particular pattern-recognition components to promote pattern-recognition use, performance can be further improved by up to 3.6 %. This research is of interest for studies of expert behaviour in particular, and AI in general.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Finding and tracking multi-density clusters in an online dynamic data stream

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version.Change is one of the biggest challenges in dynamic stream mining. From a data-mining perspective, adapting and tracking change is desirable in order to understand how and why change has occurred. Clustering, a form of unsupervised learning, can be used to identify the underlying patterns in a stream. Density-based clustering identifies clusters as areas of high density separated by areas of low density. This paper proposes a Multi-Density Stream Clustering (MDSC) algorithm to address these two problems; the multi-density problem and the problem of discovering and tracking changes in a dynamic stream. MDSC consists of two on-line components; discovered, labelled clusters and an outlier buffer. Incoming points are assigned to a live cluster or passed to the outlier buffer. New clusters are discovered in the buffer using an ant-inspired swarm intelligence approach. The newly discovered cluster is uniquely labelled and added to the set of live clusters. Processed data is subject to an ageing function and will disappear when it is no longer relevant. MDSC is shown to perform favourably to state-of-the-art peer stream-clustering algorithms on a range of real and synthetic data-streams. Experimental results suggest that MDSC can discover qualitatively useful patterns while being scalable and robust to noise

Deep Learning can Replicate Adaptive Traders in a Limit-Order-Book Financial Market

We report successful results from using deep learning neural networks (DLNNs) to learn, purely by observation, the behavior of profitable traders in an electronic market closely modelled on the limit-order-book (LOB) market mechanisms that are commonly found in the real-world global financial markets for equities (stocks & shares), currencies, bonds, commodities, and derivatives. Successful real human traders, and advanced automated algorithmic trading systems, learn from experience and adapt over time as market conditions change; our DLNN learns to copy this adaptive trading behavior. A novel aspect of our work is that we do not involve the conventional approach of attempting to predict time-series of prices of tradeable securities. Instead, we collect large volumes of training data by observing only the quotes issued by a successful sales-trader in the market, details of the orders that trader is executing, and the data available on the LOB (as would usually be provided by a centralized exchange) over the period that the trader is active. In this paper we demonstrate that suitably configured DLNNs can learn to replicate the trading behavior of a successful adaptive automated trader, an algorithmic system previously demonstrated to outperform human traders. We also demonstrate that DLNNs can learn to perform better (i.e., more profitably) than the trader that provided the training data. We believe that this is the first ever demonstration that DLNNs can successfully replicate a human-like, or super-human, adaptive trader operating in a realistic emulation of a real-world financial market. Our results can be considered as proof-of-concept that a DLNN could, in principle, observe the actions of a human trader in a real financial market and over time learn to trade equally as well as that human trader, and possibly better.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures. To be presented at IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence in Financial Engineering (CIFEr), Bengaluru; Nov 18-21, 201

Forecasting People Trajectories and Head Poses by Jointly Reasoning on Tracklets and Vislets

In this work, we explore the correlation between people trajectories and their head orientations. We argue that people trajectory and head pose forecasting can be modelled as a joint problem. Recent approaches on trajectory forecasting leverage short-term trajectories (aka tracklets) of pedestrians to predict their future paths. In addition, sociological cues, such as expected destination or pedestrian interaction, are often combined with tracklets. In this paper, we propose MiXing-LSTM (MX-LSTM) to capture the interplay between positions and head orientations (vislets) thanks to a joint unconstrained optimization of full covariance matrices during the LSTM backpropagation. We additionally exploit the head orientations as a proxy for the visual attention, when modeling social interactions. MX-LSTM predicts future pedestrians location and head pose, increasing the standard capabilities of the current approaches on long-term trajectory forecasting. Compared to the state-of-the-art, our approach shows better performances on an extensive set of public benchmarks. MX-LSTM is particularly effective when people move slowly, i.e. the most challenging scenario for all other models. The proposed approach also allows for accurate predictions on a longer time horizon.Comment: Accepted at IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON PATTERN ANALYSIS AND MACHINE INTELLIGENCE 2019. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1805.0065