4,674 research outputs found

    Multivariate time series analysis for short-term forecasting of ground level ozone (O3) in Malaysia

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    The declining of air quality mostly affects the elderly, children, people with asthma, as well as a restriction on outdoor activities. Therefore, there is an importance to provide a statistical modelling to forecast the future values of surface layer ozone (O3) concentration. The objectives of this study are to obtain the best multivariate time series (MTS) model and develop an online air quality forecasting system for O3 concentration in Malaysia. The implementations of MTS model improve the recent statistical model on air quality for short-term prediction. Ten air quality monitoring stations situated at four (4) different types of location were selected in this study. The first type is industrial represent by Pasir Gudang, Perai, and Nilai, second type is urban represent by Kuala Terengganu, Kota Bharu, and Alor Setar. The third is suburban located in Banting, Kangar, and Tanjung Malim, also the only background station at Jerantut. The hourly record data from 2010 to 2017 were used to assess the characteristics and behaviour of O3 concentration. Meanwhile, the monthly record data of O3, particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), temperature (T), wind speed (WS), and relative humidity (RH) were used to examine the best MTS models. Three methods of MTS namely vector autoregressive (VAR), vector moving average (VMA), and vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA), has been applied in this study. Based on the performance error, the most appropriate MTS model located in Pasir Gudang, Kota Bharu and Kangar is VAR(1), Kuala Terengganu and Alor Setar for VAR(2), Perai and Nilai for VAR(3), Tanjung Malim for VAR(4) and Banting for VAR(5). Only Jerantut obtained the VMA(2) as the best model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized absolute error is 0.0053 and <0.0001 which is for MTS model in Perai and Kuala Terengganu, respectively. Meanwhile, for mean absolute error (MAE), the lowest is in Banting and Jerantut at 0.0013. The online air quality forecasting system for O3 was successfully developed based on the best MTS models to represent each monitoring station

    Training a Feed-forward Neural Network with Artificial Bee Colony Based Backpropagation Method

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    Back-propagation algorithm is one of the most widely used and popular techniques to optimize the feed forward neural network training. Nature inspired meta-heuristic algorithms also provide derivative-free solution to optimize complex problem. Artificial bee colony algorithm is a nature inspired meta-heuristic algorithm, mimicking the foraging or food source searching behaviour of bees in a bee colony and this algorithm is implemented in several applications for an improved optimized outcome. The proposed method in this paper includes an improved artificial bee colony algorithm based back-propagation neural network training method for fast and improved convergence rate of the hybrid neural network learning method. The result is analysed with the genetic algorithm based back-propagation method, and it is another hybridized procedure of its kind. Analysis is performed over standard data sets, reflecting the light of efficiency of proposed method in terms of convergence speed and rate.Comment: 14 Pages, 11 figure

    Metaheuristic design of feedforward neural networks: a review of two decades of research

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    Over the past two decades, the feedforward neural network (FNN) optimization has been a key interest among the researchers and practitioners of multiple disciplines. The FNN optimization is often viewed from the various perspectives: the optimization of weights, network architecture, activation nodes, learning parameters, learning environment, etc. Researchers adopted such different viewpoints mainly to improve the FNN's generalization ability. The gradient-descent algorithm such as backpropagation has been widely applied to optimize the FNNs. Its success is evident from the FNN's application to numerous real-world problems. However, due to the limitations of the gradient-based optimization methods, the metaheuristic algorithms including the evolutionary algorithms, swarm intelligence, etc., are still being widely explored by the researchers aiming to obtain generalized FNN for a given problem. This article attempts to summarize a broad spectrum of FNN optimization methodologies including conventional and metaheuristic approaches. This article also tries to connect various research directions emerged out of the FNN optimization practices, such as evolving neural network (NN), cooperative coevolution NN, complex-valued NN, deep learning, extreme learning machine, quantum NN, etc. Additionally, it provides interesting research challenges for future research to cope-up with the present information processing era

    Learning Multi-Tree Classification Models with Ant Colony Optimization

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    Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is a meta-heuristic for solving combinatorial optimization problems, inspired by the behaviour of biological ant colonies. One of the successful applications of ACO is learning classification models (classifiers). A classifier encodes the relationships between the input attribute values and the values of a class attribute in a given set of labelled cases and it can be used to predict the class value of new unlabelled cases. Decision trees have been widely used as a type of classification model that represent comprehensible knowledge to the user. In this paper, we propose the use of ACO-based algorithms for learning an extended multi-tree classification model, which consists of multiple decision trees, one for each class value. Each class-based decision trees is responsible for discriminating between its class value and all other values available in the class domain. Our proposed algorithms are empirically evaluated against well-known decision trees induction algorithms, as well as the ACO-based Ant-Tree-Miner algorithm. The results show an overall improvement in predictive accuracy over 32 benchmark datasets. We also discuss how the new multi-tree models can provide the user with more understanding and knowledge-interpretability in a given domain
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