Assessing the Impact of Game Day Schedule and Opponents on Travel Patterns and Route Choice using Big Data Analytics

The transportation system is crucial for transferring people and goods from point A to point B. However, its reliability can be decreased by unanticipated congestion resulting from planned special events. For example, sporting events collect large crowds of people at specific venues on game days and disrupt normal traffic patterns. The goal of this study was to understand issues related to road traffic management during major sporting events by using widely available INRIX data to compare travel patterns and behaviors on game days against those on normal days. A comprehensive analysis was conducted on the impact of all Nebraska Cornhuskers football games over five years on traffic congestion on five major routes in Nebraska. We attempted to identify hotspots, the unusually high-risk zones in a spatiotemporal space containing traffic congestion that occur on almost all game days. For hotspot detection, we utilized a method called Multi-EigenSpot, which is able to detect multiple hotspots in a spatiotemporal space. With this algorithm, we were able to detect traffic hotspot clusters on the five chosen routes in Nebraska. After detecting the hotspots, we identified the factors affecting the sizes of hotspots and other parameters. The start time of the game and the Cornhuskers’ opponent for a given game are two important factors affecting the number of people coming to Lincoln, Nebraska, on game days. Finally, the Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) approach was applied to forecast the start times and locations of hotspot clusters in 2018 with a weighted mean absolute percentage error (WMAPE) of 13.8%

DxNAT - Deep Neural Networks for Explaining Non-Recurring Traffic Congestion

Non-recurring traffic congestion is caused by temporary disruptions, such as accidents, sports games, adverse weather, etc. We use data related to real-time traffic speed, jam factors (a traffic congestion indicator), and events collected over a year from Nashville, TN to train a multi-layered deep neural network. The traffic dataset contains over 900 million data records. The network is thereafter used to classify the real-time data and identify anomalous operations. Compared with traditional approaches of using statistical or machine learning techniques, our model reaches an accuracy of 98.73 percent when identifying traffic congestion caused by football games. Our approach first encodes the traffic across a region as a scaled image. After that the image data from different timestamps is fused with event- and time-related data. Then a crossover operator is used as a data augmentation method to generate training datasets with more balanced classes. Finally, we use the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to tune the sensitivity of the classifier. We present the analysis of the training time and the inference time separately

Development of dynamic recursive models for freeway travel time predictions

Traffic congestion has been a major problem in metropolitan areas, which is caused by either insufficient roadway capacity or unforesceable incidents. In order to promote the efficiency of the existing roadway networks and mitigate the impact of traffic congestion, the development of a sound prediction model for travel times is desirable. A comprehensive literature review about existing prediction models was conducted by investigating the advantages, disadvantages, and limitations of each model. Based on the features and properties of previous models, the base models including exponential smoothing model (ESM), moving average model (MAM), and Kalman filtering model (KFM) are developed to capture stochastic properties of traffic behavior for travel time prediction. By incorporating KFM into ESM and MAM, three dynamic recursive prediction models including dynamic exponential smoothing model (DESM), improved dynamic exponential smoothing model (JDESM), and dynamic moving average model (DMAM) are developed, in which the time-varying weight parameters are optimized based on the most recent observation. Model evaluation has been conducted to analyze prediction accuracy under various traffic conditions (e.g., free-flow condition, recurrent and non-recurrent congested traffic conditions). Results show that the IDESM in general outperforms other models developed in this study in prediction accuracy and stability. In addition, the feature and logic of the IDESM lead to its high transferability and adaptability, which could enable the prediction model to perform well at multiple locations and deal with complicated traffic conditions. Besides the proficient capability, the IDESM is easy to implement in the real world transportation network. Thus, the IDESM is proven an appealing approach for short-time travel time prediction under various traffic conditions. The application scope of the IDESM is identified, while the optimal prediction intervals are also suggested in this study

Real-time Traffic Flow Detection and Prediction Algorithm: Data-Driven Analyses on Spatio-Temporal Traffic Dynamics

Traffic flows over time and space. This spatio-temporal dependency of traffic flow should be considered and used to enhance the performance of real-time traffic detection and prediction capabilities. This characteristic has been widely studied and various applications have been developed and enhanced. During the last decade, great attention has been paid to the increases in the number of traffic data sources, the amount of data, and the data-driven analysis methods. There is still room to improve the traffic detection and prediction capabilities through studies on the emerging resources. To this end, this dissertation presents a series of studies on real-time traffic operation for highway facilities focusing on detection and prediction.First, a spatio-temporal traffic data imputation approach was studied to exploit multi-source data. Different types of kriging methods were evaluated to utilize the spatio-temporal characteristic of traffic data with respect to two factors, including missing patterns and use of secondary data. Second, a short-term traffic speed prediction algorithm was proposed that provides accurate prediction results and is scalable for a large road network analysis in real time. The proposed algorithm consists of a data dimension reduction module and a nonparametric multivariate time-series analysis module. Third, a real-time traffic queue detection algorithm was developed based on traffic fundamentals combined with a statistical pattern recognition procedure. This algorithm was designed to detect dynamic queueing conditions in a spatio-temporal domain rather than detect a queue and congestion directly from traffic flow variables. The algorithm was evaluated by using various real congested traffic flow data. Lastly, gray areas in a decision-making process based on quantifiable measures were addressed to cope with uncertainties in modeling outputs. For intersection control type selection, the gray areas were identified and visualized

Modeling of traffic data characteristics by Dirichlet Process Mixtures

Conference Theme: Green Automation Toward a Sustainable SocietyThis paper presents a statistical method for modeling large volume of traffic data by Dirichlet Process Mixtures (DPM). Traffic signals are in general defined by their spatial-temporal characteristics, of which some can be common or similar across a set of signals, while a minority of these signals may have characteristics inconsistent with the majority. These are termed outliers. Outlier detection aims to segment and eliminate them in order to improve signal quality. It is accepted that the problem of outlier detection is non-trivial. As traffic signals generally share a high degree of spatial-temporal similarities within the signal and between different types of traffic signals, traditional modeling approaches are ineffective in distinguishing these similarities and discerning their differences. In regard to modeling the traffic data characteristics by DPM, this paper conveys three contributions. First, a new generic statistical model for traffic data is proposed based on DPM. Second, this model achieves an outlier detection rate of 96.74% based on a database of 764,027 vehicles. Third, the proposed model is scalable to the entire road network. © 2012 IEEE.published_or_final_versio

Managed information gathering and fusion for transient transport problems

This paper deals with vehicular traffic management by communication technologies from Traffic Control Center point of view in road networks. The global goal is to manage the urban traffic by road traffic operations, controlling and interventional possibilities in order to minimize the traffic delays and stops and to improve traffic safety on the roads. This paper focuses on transient transport, when the controlling management is crucial. The aim was to detect the beginning time of the transient traffic on the roads, to gather the most appropriate data and to get reliable information for interventional suggestions. More reliable information can be created by information fusion, several fusion techniques are expounded in this paper. A half-automatic solution with Decision Support System has been developed to help with engineers in suggestions of interventions based on real time traffic data. The information fusion has benefits for Decision Support System: the complementary sensors may fill the gaps of one another, the system is able to detect the changing of the percentage of different vehicle types in traffic. An example of detection and interventional suggestion about transient traffic on transport networks of a little town is presented at the end of the paper. The novelty of this paper is the gathering of information - triggered by the state changing from stationer to transient - from ad hoc channels and combining them with information from developed regular channels. --information gathering,information fusion,Kalman filter,transient traffic,Decision Support System

Evaluation of Parametric and Nonparametric Statistical Models in Wrong-way Driving Crash Severity Prediction

Wrong-way driving (WWD) crashes result in more fatalities per crash, involve more vehicles, and cause extended road closures compared to other types of crashes. Although crashes involving wrong-way drivers are relatively few, they often lead to fatalities and serious injuries. Researchers have been using parametric statistical models to identify factors that affect WWD crash severity. However, these parametric models are generally based on several assumptions, and the results could generate numerous errors and become questionable when these assumptions are violated. On the other hand, nonparametric methods such as data mining or machine learning techniques do not use a predetermined functional form, can address the correlation problem among independent variables, display results graphically, and simplify the potential complex relationship between the variables. The main objective of this research was to demonstrate the applicability of nonparametric statistical models in successfully identifying factors affecting traffic crash severity. To achieve this goal, the performance of parametric and nonparametric statistical models in WWD crash severity prediction was evaluated. The following parametric methods were evaluated: Logistic Regression (LR), Ridge Regression (RR), Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), and Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB). The following nonparametric methods were evaluated: Random Forests (RF), Decision Trees (DT), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The evaluation was based on sensitivity, specificity, and prediction accuracy. The research also demonstrated the applicability of nonparametric supervised learning algorithms on crash severity analysis by combining tree-based data mining techniques and marginal effect analysis to show the correlation between the response and the predictor variables. The analysis was based on 1,475 WWD crashes that occurred on arterial road networks from 2012-2016 in Florida. The results showed that nonparametric models provided better prediction accuracy on predicting serious injury compared to parametric models. By conducting prediction accuracy comparison, contributor variables’ marginal effect analysis, variable importance evaluation, and crash severity pattern recognition analysis, the nonparametric models have been demonstrated to be valid and proved to serve as an alternative tool in transportation safety studies. The results showed that head-on collisions, weekends, high-speed facilities, crashes involving vehicles entering from a driveway, dark-not lighted roadways, older drivers, and driver impairment are important factors that play a crucial role in WWD crash severity on non-limited access facilities. This information may assist researchers and safety engineers in identifying specific strategies to reduce the severity of WWD crashes on arterial streets. Besides unveiling the factors contributing to WWD crash severity and their relationship with each other, this research has demonstrated the potential of using data mining techniques in yielding results that are easily understandable and interpretable