Data Mining in Electronic Commerce

Modern business is rushing toward e-commerce. If the transition is done properly, it enables better management, new services, lower transaction costs and better customer relations. Success depends on skilled information technologists, among whom are statisticians. This paper focuses on some of the contributions that statisticians are making to help change the business world, especially through the development and application of data mining methods. This is a very large area, and the topics we cover are chosen to avoid overlap with other papers in this special issue, as well as to respect the limitations of our expertise. Inevitably, electronic commerce has raised and is raising fresh research problems in a very wide range of statistical areas, and we try to emphasize those challenges.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000204 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A Planning Template for Nonwork Travel and Transit Oriented Development, MTI Report 01-12

The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) at San José State University assigned a project team to design a planning template for transit-oriented development (TOD) that incorporates an understanding of nonwork travel, that is, trips for shopping, eating out, and engaging in recreational and cultural activities. Nonwork trips are growing in signifigance and now account for four of every five trips. At the same time, TOD has become a popular planning response to the impacts of metropolitan growth. Some planners believe that TOD will induce more pedestrian and transit trips and will reduce the average length and frequency of household auto travel. This effect is assumed to result from improved accessibility to employment and nonwork venues located in compact, mixed-use centers. Planning professionals in many MPOs also suggest that if multiple centers are linked by high quality transit, such as light or heavy rail, access is enabled to the broad range of nonwork activities. The project arrived at these essential findings: (1) Venues for nonwork activities are very numerous and geographically dispersed. 2) The spatial environment for nonwork activities is the result of growing prosperity, technical innovation, and a dynamic, competitive marketplace. (3) The consumer marketplace will provide many more places to go than mass transit can cost-effectively serve. (4) Current metropolitan planning methods and modeling tools focus on the work trip and do not adequately account for the complexity of nonwork trips and their linkage to work trips. These findings support the need for a new regional planning process to complement current methods. One recommended approach is that metropolitan communities establish a Nonwork Travel Improvement Planning Process using a multidisciplinary expert advisory group interacting with a core, Internet-enabled, professional transportation planning staff. An iterative interaction across varied but relevant skill sets could be achieved through a Backcasting Delphi process. The focus of the interaction would be on understanding the ramifications of consumer and retail industry behavior for TOD and other new transportation strategies, and then assessing the available strategies for cost-effectiveness in reducing the impacts of growth and automobility in a complex and uncertain metropolitan market

A brief network analysis of Artificial Intelligence publication

In this paper, we present an illustration to the history of Artificial Intelligence(AI) with a statistical analysis of publish since 1940. We collected and mined through the IEEE publish data base to analysis the geological and chronological variance of the activeness of research in AI. The connections between different institutes are showed. The result shows that the leading community of AI research are mainly in the USA, China, the Europe and Japan. The key institutes, authors and the research hotspots are revealed. It is found that the research institutes in the fields like Data Mining, Computer Vision, Pattern Recognition and some other fields of Machine Learning are quite consistent, implying a strong interaction between the community of each field. It is also showed that the research of Electronic Engineering and Industrial or Commercial applications are very active in California. Japan is also publishing a lot of papers in robotics. Due to the limitation of data source, the result might be overly influenced by the number of published articles, which is to our best improved by applying network keynode analysis on the research community instead of merely count the number of publish.Comment: 18 pages, 7 figure

Conservation science in NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuaries: description and recent accomplishments

This report describes cases relating to the management of national marine sanctuaries in which certain scientific information was required so managers could make decisions that effectively protected trust resources. The cases presented represent only a fraction of difficult issues that marine sanctuary managers deal with daily. They include, among others, problems related to wildlife disturbance, vessel routing, marine reserve placement, watershed management, oil spill response, and habitat restoration. Scientific approaches to address these problems vary significantly, and include literature surveys, data mining, field studies (monitoring, mapping, observations, and measurement), geospatial and biogeographic analysis, and modeling. In most cases there is also an element of expert consultation and collaboration among multiple partners, agencies with resource protection responsibilities, and other users and stakeholders. The resulting management responses may involve direct intervention (e.g., for spill response or habitat restoration issues), proposal of boundary alternatives for marine sanctuaries or reserves, changes in agency policy or regulations, making recommendations to other agencies with resource protection responsibilities, proposing changes to international or domestic shipping rules, or development of new education or outreach programs. (PDF contains 37 pages.

Towards Autonomic Service Provisioning Systems

This paper discusses our experience in building SPIRE, an autonomic system for service provision. The architecture consists of a set of hosted Web Services subject to QoS constraints, and a certain number of servers used to run session-based traffic. Customers pay for having their jobs run, but require in turn certain quality guarantees: there are different SLAs specifying charges for running jobs and penalties for failing to meet promised performance metrics. The system is driven by an utility function, aiming at optimizing the average earned revenue per unit time. Demand and performance statistics are collected, while traffic parameters are estimated in order to make dynamic decisions concerning server allocation and admission control. Different utility functions are introduced and a number of experiments aiming at testing their performance are discussed. Results show that revenues can be dramatically improved by imposing suitable conditions for accepting incoming traffic; the proposed system performs well under different traffic settings, and it successfully adapts to changes in the operating environment.Comment: 11 pages, 9 Figures, http://www.wipo.int/pctdb/en/wo.jsp?WO=201002636

Assessment of the Contribution of Traffic Emissions to the Mobile Vehicle Measured PM2.5 Concentration by Means of WRF-CMAQ Simulations

INE/AUTC 12.0

Agents, Bookmarks and Clicks: A topical model of Web traffic

Analysis of aggregate and individual Web traffic has shown that PageRank is a poor model of how people navigate the Web. Using the empirical traffic patterns generated by a thousand users, we characterize several properties of Web traffic that cannot be reproduced by Markovian models. We examine both aggregate statistics capturing collective behavior, such as page and link traffic, and individual statistics, such as entropy and session size. No model currently explains all of these empirical observations simultaneously. We show that all of these traffic patterns can be explained by an agent-based model that takes into account several realistic browsing behaviors. First, agents maintain individual lists of bookmarks (a non-Markovian memory mechanism) that are used as teleportation targets. Second, agents can retreat along visited links, a branching mechanism that also allows us to reproduce behaviors such as the use of a back button and tabbed browsing. Finally, agents are sustained by visiting novel pages of topical interest, with adjacent pages being more topically related to each other than distant ones. This modulates the probability that an agent continues to browse or starts a new session, allowing us to recreate heterogeneous session lengths. The resulting model is capable of reproducing the collective and individual behaviors we observe in the empirical data, reconciling the narrowly focused browsing patterns of individual users with the extreme heterogeneity of aggregate traffic measurements. This result allows us to identify a few salient features that are necessary and sufficient to interpret the browsing patterns observed in our data. In addition to the descriptive and explanatory power of such a model, our results may lead the way to more sophisticated, realistic, and effective ranking and crawling algorithms.Comment: 10 pages, 16 figures, 1 table - Long version of paper to appear in Proceedings of the 21th ACM conference on Hypertext and Hypermedi

Issues Related to the Emergence of the Information Superhighway and California Societal Changes, IISTPS Report 96-4

The Norman Y. Mineta International Institute for Surface Transportation Policy Studies (IISTPS) at San José State University (SJSU) conducted this project to review the continuing development of the Internet and the Information Superhighway. Emphasis was placed on an examination of the impact on commuting and working patterns in California, and an analysis of how public transportation agencies, including Caltrans, might take advantage of the new communications technologies. The document reviews the technology underlying the current Internet “structure” and examines anticipated developments. It is important to note that much of the research for this limited-scope project was conducted during 1995, and the topic is so rapidly evolving that some information is almost automatically “dated.” The report also examines how transportation agencies are basically similar in structure and function to other business entities, and how they can continue to utilize the emerging technologies to improve internal and external communications. As part of a detailed discussion of specific transportation agency functions, it is noted that the concept of a “Roundtable Forum,” growing out of developments in Concurrent Engineering, can provide an opportunity for representatives from multiple jurisdictions to utilize the Internet for more coordinated decision-making. The report also included an extensive analysis of demographic trends in California in recent years, such as commute and recreational activities, and identifies how the emerging technologies may impact future changes