Traffic estimation for large urban road network with high missing data ratio

Intelligent transportation systems require the knowledge of current and forecasted traffic states for effective control of road networks. The actual traffic state has to be estimated as the existing sensors does not capture the needed state. Sensor measurements often contain missing or incomplete data as a result of communication issues, faulty sensors or cost leading to incomplete monitoring of the entire road network. This missing data poses challenges to traffic estimation approaches. In this work, a robust spatio-temporal traffic imputation approach capable of withstanding high missing data rate is presented. A particle based approach with Kriging interpolation is proposed. The performance of the particle based Kriging interpolation for different missing data ratios was investigated for a large road network comprising 1000 segments. Results indicate that the effect of missing data in a large road network can be mitigated by the Kriging interpolation within the particle filter framework

A Simple Baseline for Travel Time Estimation using Large-Scale Trip Data

The increased availability of large-scale trajectory data around the world provides rich information for the study of urban dynamics. For example, New York City Taxi Limousine Commission regularly releases source-destination information about trips in the taxis they regulate. Taxi data provide information about traffic patterns, and thus enable the study of urban flow -- what will traffic between two locations look like at a certain date and time in the future? Existing big data methods try to outdo each other in terms of complexity and algorithmic sophistication. In the spirit of "big data beats algorithms", we present a very simple baseline which outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, including Bing Maps and Baidu Maps (whose APIs permit large scale experimentation). Such a travel time estimation baseline has several important uses, such as navigation (fast travel time estimates can serve as approximate heuristics for A search variants for path finding) and trip planning (which uses operating hours for popular destinations along with travel time estimates to create an itinerary).Comment: 12 page

A three-dimensional macroscopic fundamental diagram for mixed bi-modal urban networks

Recent research has studied the existence and the properties of a macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) for large urban networks. The MFD should not be universally expected as high scatter or hysteresis might appear for some type of networks, like heterogeneous networks or freeways. In this paper, we investigate if aggregated relationships can describe the performance of urban bi-modal networks with buses and cars sharing the same road infrastructure and identify how this performance is influenced by the interactions between modes and the effect of bus stops. Based on simulation data, we develop a three-dimensional vehicle MFD (3D-vMFD) relating the accumulation of cars and buses, and the total circulating vehicle flow in the network. This relation experiences low scatter and can be approximated by an exponential-family function. We also propose a parsimonious model to estimate a three-dimensional passenger MFD (3D-pMFD), which provides a different perspective of the flow characteristics in bi-modal networks, by considering that buses carry more passengers. We also show that a constant Bus-Car Unit (BCU) equivalent value cannot describe the influence of buses in the system as congestion develops. We then integrate a partitioning algorithm to cluster the network into a small number of regions with similar mode composition and level of congestion. Our results show that partitioning unveils important traffic properties of flow heterogeneity in the studied network. Interactions between buses and cars are different in the partitioned regions due to higher density of buses. Building on these results, various traffic management strategies in bi-modal multi-region urban networks can then be integrated, such as redistribution of urban space among different modes, perimeter signal control with preferential treatment of buses and bus priority

Multi-Output Gaussian Processes for Crowdsourced Traffic Data Imputation

Traffic speed data imputation is a fundamental challenge for data-driven transport analysis. In recent years, with the ubiquity of GPS-enabled devices and the widespread use of crowdsourcing alternatives for the collection of traffic data, transportation professionals increasingly look to such user-generated data for many analysis, planning, and decision support applications. However, due to the mechanics of the data collection process, crowdsourced traffic data such as probe-vehicle data is highly prone to missing observations, making accurate imputation crucial for the success of any application that makes use of that type of data. In this article, we propose the use of multi-output Gaussian processes (GPs) to model the complex spatial and temporal patterns in crowdsourced traffic data. While the Bayesian nonparametric formalism of GPs allows us to model observation uncertainty, the multi-output extension based on convolution processes effectively enables us to capture complex spatial dependencies between nearby road segments. Using 6 months of crowdsourced traffic speed data or "probe vehicle data" for several locations in Copenhagen, the proposed approach is empirically shown to significantly outperform popular state-of-the-art imputation methods.Comment: 10 pages, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 201

Node Density Estimation in VANETs Using Received Signal Power

Accurately estimating node density in Vehicular Ad hoc Networks, VANETs, is a challenging and crucial task. Various approaches exist, yet none takes advantage of physical layer parameters in a distributed fashion. This paper describes a framework that allows individual nodes to estimate the node density of their surrounding network independent of beacon messages and other infrastructure-based information. The proposal relies on three factors: 1) a discrete event simulator to estimate the average number of nodes transmitting simultaneously; 2) a realistic channel model for VANETs environment; and 3) a node density estimation technique. This work provides every vehicle on the road with two equations indicating the relation between 1) received signal strength versus simultaneously transmitting nodes, and 2) simultaneously transmitting nodes versus node density. Access to these equations enables individual nodes to estimate their real-time surrounding node density. The system is designed to work for the most complicated scenarios where nodes have no information about the topology of the network and, accordingly, the results indicate that the system is reasonably reliable and accurate. The outcome of this work has various applications and can be used for any protocol that is affected by node density