Fundamental Framework for Technical Analysis

Starting from the characterization of the past time evolution of market prices in terms of two fundamental indicators, price velocity and price acceleration, we construct a general classification of the possible patterns characterizing the deviation or defects from the random walk market state and its time-translational invariant properties. The classification relies on two dimensionless parameters, the Froude number characterizing the relative strength of the acceleration with respect to the velocity and the time horizon forecast dimensionalized to the training period. Trend-following and contrarian patterns are found to coexist and depend on the dimensionless time horizon. The classification is based on the symmetry requirements of invariance with respect to change of price units and of functional scale-invariance in the space of scenarii. This ``renormalized scenario'' approach is fundamentally probabilistic in nature and exemplifies the view that multiple competing scenarii have to be taken into account for the same past history. Empirical tests are performed on on about nine to thirty years of daily returns of twelve data sets comprising some major indices (Dow Jones, SP500, Nasdaq, DAX, FTSE, Nikkei), some major bonds (JGB, TYX) and some major currencies against the US dollar (GBP, CHF, DEM, JPY). Our ``renormalized scenario'' exhibits statistically significant predictive power in essentially all market phases. In constrast, a trend following strategy and trend + acceleration following strategy perform well only on different and specific market phases. The value of the ``renormalized scenario'' approach lies in the fact that it always finds the best of the two, based on a calculation of the stability of their predicted market trajectories.Comment: Latex, 27 page

Self-Evaluation Applied Mathematics 2003-2008 University of Twente

This report contains the self-study for the research assessment of the Department of Applied Mathematics (AM) of the Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science (EEMCS) at the University of Twente (UT). The report provides the information for the Research Assessment Committee for Applied Mathematics, dealing with mathematical sciences at the three universities of technology in the Netherlands. It describes the state of affairs pertaining to the period 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2008

Regelungstheorie

The workshop “Regelungstheorie” (control theory) covered a broad variety of topics that were either concerned with fundamental mathematical aspects of control or with its strong impact in various fields of engineering

Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives; A Network Analysis of Contagion and Its Mitigation with Super-Spreader Tax

Financial network analysis is used to provide firm level bottom-up holistic visualizations of interconnections of financial obligations in global OTC derivatives markets. This helps to identify Systemically Important Financial Intermediaries (SIFIs), analyse the nature of contagion propagation, and also monitor and design ways of increasing robustness in the network. Based on 2009 FDIC and individually collected firm level data covering gross notional, gross positive (negative) fair value and the netted derivatives assets and liabilities for 202 financial firms which includes 20 SIFIs, the bilateral flows are empirically calibrated to reflect data-based constraints. This produces a tiered network with a distinct highly clustered central core of 12 SIFIs that account for 78 percent of all bilateral exposures and a large number of  financial intermediaries (FIs) on the periphery. The topology of the network results in the “Too- Interconnected-To-Fail” (TITF) phenomenon in that the failure of any member of the central tier will bring down other members with the contagion coming to an abrupt end when the ‘super-spreaders’ have demised. As these SIFIs account for the bulk of capital in the system, ipso facto no bank among the top tier can be allowed to fail, highlighting the untenable implicit socialized guarantees needed for these markets to operate at their current levels. Systemic risk costs of highly connected SIFIs nodes are not priced into their holding of capital or collateral. An eigenvector centrality based ‘super-spreader’ tax has been designed and tested for its capacity to reduce the potential socialized losses from failure of SIFIs

Relay Feedback and Multivariable Control

This doctoral thesis treats three issues in control engineering related to relay feedback and multivariable control systems. Linear systems with relay feedback is the first topic. Such systems are shown to exhibit several interesting behaviors. It is proved that there exist multiple fast relay switches if and only if the sign of the first non-vanishing Markov parameter of the linear system is positive. It is also shown that these fast switches can appear as part of a stable limit cycle. A linear system with pole excess one or two is demonstrated to be particularly interesting. Stability conditions for these cases are derived. It is also discussed how fast relay switches can be approximated by sliding modes. Performance limitations in linear multivariable control systems is the second topic. It is proved that if the top left submatrices of a stable transfer matrix have no right half-plane zeros and a certain high-frequency condition holds, then there exists a diagonal stabilizing feedback that makes a weighted sensitivity function arbitrarily small. Implications on control structure design and sequential loop-closure are given. A novel multivariable laboratory process is also presented. Its linearized dynamics have a transmission zero that can be located anywhere on the real axis by simply adjusting two valves. This process is well suited to illustrate many issues in multivariable control, for example, control design limitations due to right half-plane zeros. The third topic is a combination of relay feedback and multivariable control. Tuning of individual loops in an existing multivariable control system is discussed. It is shown that a specific relay feedback experiment can be used to obtain process information suitable for performance improvement in a loop, without any prior knowledge of the system dynamics. The influence of the loop retuning on the overall closed-loop performance is derived and interpreted in several ways

Aeronautical Engineering. A continuing bibliography, supplement 115

This bibliography lists 273 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in October 1979

Control Theory in Engineering

The subject matter of this book ranges from new control design methods to control theory applications in electrical and mechanical engineering and computers. The book covers certain aspects of control theory, including new methodologies, techniques, and applications. It promotes control theory in practical applications of these engineering domains and shows the way to disseminate researchers’ contributions in the field. This project presents applications that improve the properties and performance of control systems in analysis and design using a higher technical level of scientific attainment. The authors have included worked examples and case studies resulting from their research in the field. Readers will benefit from new solutions and answers to questions related to the emerging realm of control theory in engineering applications and its implementation

Adaptive Input Reconstruction with Application to Model Refinement, State Estimation, and Adaptive Control.

Input reconstruction is the process of using the output of a system to estimate its input. In some cases, input reconstruction can be accomplished by determining the output of the inverse of a model of the system whose input is the output of the original system. Inversion, however, requires an exact and fully known analytical model, and is limited by instabilities arising from nonminimum-phase zeros. The main contribution of this work is a novel technique for input reconstruction that does not require model inversion. This technique is based on a retrospective cost, which requires a limited number of Markov parameters. Retrospective cost input reconstruction (RCIR) does not require knowledge of nonminimum-phase zero locations or an analytical model of the system. RCIR provides a technique that can be used for model refinement, state estimation, and adaptive control. In the model refinement application, data are used to refine or improve a model of a system. It is assumed that the difference between the model output and the data is due to an unmodeled subsystem whose interconnection with the modeled system is inaccessible, that is, the interconnection signals cannot be measured and thus standard system identification techniques cannot be used. Using input reconstruction, these inaccessible signals can be estimated, and the inaccessible subsystem can be fitted. We demonstrate input reconstruction in a model refinement framework by identifying unknown physics in a space weather model and by estimating an unknown film growth in a lithium ion battery. The same technique can be used to obtain estimates of states that cannot be directly measured. Adaptive control can be formulated as a model-refinement problem, where the unknown subsystem is the idealized controller that minimizes a measured performance variable. Minimal modeling input reconstruction for adaptive control is useful for applications where modeling information may be difficult to obtain. We demonstrate adaptive control of a seeker-guided missile with unknown aerodynamics.Ph.D.Aerospace EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/91520/1/amdamato_1.pd