Knowledge-driven stock trend prediction and explanation via temporal convolutional network

The authors would like to acknowledge that this work is funded by NSFC 61473260/91846204, national key research program YS2018YFB140004 as well as Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province of China (LQ19F030001), and supported by Alibaba-Zhejiang University Joint Institute of Frontier Technologies.Publisher PD

Semantics-based information extraction for detecting economic events

As today's financial markets are sensitive to breaking news on economic events, accurate and timely automatic identification of events in news items is crucial. Unstructured news items originating from many heterogeneous sources have to be mined in order to extract knowledge useful for guiding decision making processes. Hence, we propose the Semantics-Based Pipeline for Economic Event Detection (SPEED), focusing on extracting financial events from news articles and annotating these with meta-data at a speed that enables real-time use. In our implementation, we use some components of an existing framework as well as new components, e.g., a high-performance Ontology Gazetteer, a Word Group Look-Up component, a Word Sense Disambiguator, and components for detecting economic events. Through their interaction with a domain-specific ontology, our novel, semantically enabled components constitute a feedback loop which fosters future reuse of acquired knowledge in the event detection process

Money Laundering Detection Framework to Link the Disparate and Evolving Schemes

Money launderers hide traces of their transactions with the involvement of entities that participate in sophisticated schemes. Money laundering detection requires unraveling concealed connections among multiple but seemingly unrelated human money laundering networks, ties among actors of those schemes, and amounts of funds transferred among those entities. The link among small networks, either financial or social, is the primary factor that facilitates money laundering. Hence, the analysis of relations among money laundering networks is required to present the full structure of complex schemes. We propose a framework that uses sequence matching, case-based analysis, social network analysis, and complex event processing to detect money laundering. Our framework captures an ongoing single scheme as an event, and associations among such ongoing sequence of events to capture complex relationships among evolving money laundering schemes. The framework can detect associated multiple money laundering networks even in the absence of some evidence. We validated the accuracy of detecting evolving money laundering schemes using a multi-phases test methodology. Our test used data generated from real-life cases, and extrapolated to generate more data from real-life schemes generator that we implemented. Keywords: Anti Money Laundering, Social Network Analysis, Complex Event Processin

Money Laundering Detection Framework to Link the Disparate and Evolving Schemes

Money launderers hide traces of their transactions with the involvement of entities that participate in sophisticated schemes. Money laundering detection requires unraveling concealed connections among multiple but seemingly unrelated human money laundering networks, ties among actors of those schemes, and amounts of funds transferred among those entities. The link among small networks, either financial or social, is the primary factor that facilitates money laundering. Hence, the analysis of relations among money laundering networks is required to present the full structure of complex schemes. We propose a framework that uses sequence matching, case-based analysis, social network analysis, and complex event processing to detect money laundering. Our framework captures an ongoing single scheme as an event, and associations among such ongoing sequence of events to capture complex relationships among evolving money laundering schemes. The framework can detect associated multiple money laundering networks even in the absence of some evidence. We validated the accuracy of detecting evolving money laundering schemes using a multi-phases test methodology. Our test used data generated from real-life cases, and extrapolated to generate more data from real-life schemes generator that we implemented

A Thermodynamic Theory of Economics

An analogy between thermodynamic and economic theories and processes is developed further, following a previous paper published by the author in 1982. Economic equivalents are set out concerning the ideal gas equation, the gas constant, pressure, temperature, entropy, work done, specific heat and the 1st and 2nd Laws of Thermodynamics. The law of diminishing marginal utility was derived from thermodynamic first principles. Conditions are set out concerning the relationship of economic processes to entropic gain. A link between the Le Chatelier principle and economic processes is developed, culminating in a derivation of an equation similar in format to that of Cobb Douglas production function, but with an equilibrium constant and a disequilibrium function added to it. A trade cycle is constructed, utilising thermodynamic processes, and equations are derived for cycle efficiency, growth and entropy gain. A thermodynamic model of a money system is set out, and an attempt is made to relate interest rates, the rate of return, money demand and the velocity of circulation to entropy gain. Aspects concerning the measurement of economic value in thermodynamic terms are discussed.Thermodynamics, economics, Le Chatelier, entropy, utility, money, equilibrium, value, energy

Report of the Stanford Linked Data Workshop

The Stanford University Libraries and Academic Information Resources (SULAIR) with the Council on Library and Information Resources (CLIR) conducted at week-long workshop on the prospects for a large scale, multi-national, multi-institutional prototype of a Linked Data environment for discovery of and navigation among the rapidly, chaotically expanding array of academic information resources. As preparation for the workshop, CLIR sponsored a survey by Jerry Persons, Chief Information Architect emeritus of SULAIR that was published originally for workshop participants as background to the workshop and is now publicly available. The original intention of the workshop was to devise a plan for such a prototype. However, such was the diversity of knowledge, experience, and views of the potential of Linked Data approaches that the workshop participants turned to two more fundamental goals: building common understanding and enthusiasm on the one hand and identifying opportunities and challenges to be confronted in the preparation of the intended prototype and its operation on the other. In pursuit of those objectives, the workshop participants produced:1. a value statement addressing the question of why a Linked Data approach is worth prototyping;2. a manifesto for Linked Libraries (and Museums and Archives and …);3. an outline of the phases in a life cycle of Linked Data approaches;4. a prioritized list of known issues in generating, harvesting & using Linked Data;5. a workflow with notes for converting library bibliographic records and other academic metadata to URIs;6. examples of potential “killer apps” using Linked Data: and7. a list of next steps and potential projects.This report includes a summary of the workshop agenda, a chart showing the use of Linked Data in cultural heritage venues, and short biographies and statements from each of the participants

Extraction of ontology and semantic web information from online business reports

CAINES, Content Analysis and INformation Extraction System, employs an information extraction (IE) methodology to extract unstructured text from the Web. It can create an ontology and a Semantic Web. This research is different from traditional IE systems in that CAINES examines the syntactic and semantic relationships within unstructured text of online business reports. Using CAINES provides more relevant results than manual searching or standard keyword searching. Over most extraction systems, CAINES extensively uses information extraction from natural language, Key Words in Context (KWIC), and semantic analysis. A total of 21 online business reports, averaging about 100 pages long, were used in this study. Based on financial expert opinions, extraction rules were created to extract information, an ontology, and a Semantic Web of data from financial reports. Using CAINES, one can extract information about global and domestic market conditions, market condition impacts, and information about the business outlook. A Semantic Web was created from Merrill Lynch reports, 107,533 rows of data, and displays information regarding mergers, acquisitions, and business segment news between 2007 and 2009. User testing of CAINES resulted in recall of 85.91%, precision of 87.16%, and an F-measure of 86.46%. Speed with CAINES was also greater than manually extracting information. Users agree that CAINES quickly and easily extracts unstructured information from financial reports on the EDGAR database