From metaheuristics to learnheuristics: Applications to logistics, finance, and computing

Un gran nombre de processos de presa de decisions en sectors estratègics com el transport i la producció representen problemes NP-difícils. Sovint, aquests processos es caracteritzen per alts nivells d'incertesa i dinamisme. Les metaheurístiques són mètodes populars per a resoldre problemes d'optimització difícils en temps de càlcul raonables. No obstant això, sovint assumeixen que els inputs, les funcions objectiu, i les restriccions són deterministes i conegudes. Aquests constitueixen supòsits forts que obliguen a treballar amb problemes simplificats. Com a conseqüència, les solucions poden conduir a resultats pobres. Les simheurístiques integren la simulació a les metaheurístiques per resoldre problemes estocàstics d'una manera natural. Anàlogament, les learnheurístiques combinen l'estadística amb les metaheurístiques per fer front a problemes en entorns dinàmics, en què els inputs poden dependre de l'estructura de la solució. En aquest context, les principals contribucions d'aquesta tesi són: el disseny de les learnheurístiques, una classificació dels treballs que combinen l'estadística / l'aprenentatge automàtic i les metaheurístiques, i diverses aplicacions en transport, producció, finances i computació.Un gran número de procesos de toma de decisiones en sectores estratégicos como el transporte y la producción representan problemas NP-difíciles. Frecuentemente, estos problemas se caracterizan por altos niveles de incertidumbre y dinamismo. Las metaheurísticas son métodos populares para resolver problemas difíciles de optimización de manera rápida. Sin embargo, suelen asumir que los inputs, las funciones objetivo y las restricciones son deterministas y se conocen de antemano. Estas fuertes suposiciones conducen a trabajar con problemas simplificados. Como consecuencia, las soluciones obtenidas pueden tener un pobre rendimiento. Las simheurísticas integran simulación en metaheurísticas para resolver problemas estocásticos de una manera natural. De manera similar, las learnheurísticas combinan aprendizaje estadístico y metaheurísticas para abordar problemas en entornos dinámicos, donde los inputs pueden depender de la estructura de la solución. En este contexto, las principales aportaciones de esta tesis son: el diseño de las learnheurísticas, una clasificación de trabajos que combinan estadística / aprendizaje automático y metaheurísticas, y varias aplicaciones en transporte, producción, finanzas y computación.A large number of decision-making processes in strategic sectors such as transport and production involve NP-hard problems, which are frequently characterized by high levels of uncertainty and dynamism. Metaheuristics have become the predominant method for solving challenging optimization problems in reasonable computing times. However, they frequently assume that inputs, objective functions and constraints are deterministic and known in advance. These strong assumptions lead to work on oversimplified problems, and the solutions may demonstrate poor performance when implemented. Simheuristics, in turn, integrate simulation into metaheuristics as a way to naturally solve stochastic problems, and, in a similar fashion, learnheuristics combine statistical learning and metaheuristics to tackle problems in dynamic environments, where inputs may depend on the structure of the solution. The main contributions of this thesis include (i) a design for learnheuristics; (ii) a classification of works that hybridize statistical and machine learning and metaheuristics; and (iii) several applications for the fields of transport, production, finance and computing

Experimental investigation and modelling of the heating value and elemental composition of biomass through artificial intelligence

Abstract: Knowledge advancement in artificial intelligence and blockchain technologies provides new potential predictive reliability for biomass energy value chain. However, for the prediction approach against experimental methodology, the prediction accuracy is expected to be high in order to develop a high fidelity and robust software which can serve as a tool in the decision making process. The global standards related to classification methods and energetic properties of biomass are still evolving given different observation and results which have been reported in the literature. Apart from these, there is a need for a holistic understanding of the effect of particle sizes and geospatial factors on the physicochemical properties of biomass to increase the uptake of bioenergy. Therefore, this research carried out an experimental investigation of some selected bioresources and also develops high-fidelity models built on artificial intelligence capability to accurately classify the biomass feedstocks, predict the main elemental composition (Carbon, Hydrogen, and Oxygen) on dry basis and the Heating value in (MJ/kg) of biomass...Ph.D. (Mechanical Engineering Science

Antecipação na tomada de decisão com múltiplos critérios sob incerteza

Orientador: Fernando José Von ZubenTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de ComputaçãoResumo: A presença de incerteza em resultados futuros pode levar a indecisões em processos de escolha, especialmente ao elicitar as importâncias relativas de múltiplos critérios de decisão e de desempenhos de curto vs. longo prazo. Algumas decisões, no entanto, devem ser tomadas sob informação incompleta, o que pode resultar em ações precipitadas com consequências imprevisíveis. Quando uma solução deve ser selecionada sob vários pontos de vista conflitantes para operar em ambientes ruidosos e variantes no tempo, implementar alternativas provisórias flexíveis pode ser fundamental para contornar a falta de informação completa, mantendo opções futuras em aberto. A engenharia antecipatória pode então ser considerada como a estratégia de conceber soluções flexíveis as quais permitem aos tomadores de decisão responder de forma robusta a cenários imprevisíveis. Essa estratégia pode, assim, mitigar os riscos de, sem intenção, se comprometer fortemente a alternativas incertas, ao mesmo tempo em que aumenta a adaptabilidade às mudanças futuras. Nesta tese, os papéis da antecipação e da flexibilidade na automação de processos de tomada de decisão sequencial com múltiplos critérios sob incerteza é investigado. O dilema de atribuir importâncias relativas aos critérios de decisão e a recompensas imediatas sob informação incompleta é então tratado pela antecipação autônoma de decisões flexíveis capazes de preservar ao máximo a diversidade de escolhas futuras. Uma metodologia de aprendizagem antecipatória on-line é então proposta para melhorar a variedade e qualidade dos conjuntos futuros de soluções de trade-off. Esse objetivo é alcançado por meio da previsão de conjuntos de máximo hipervolume esperado, para a qual as capacidades de antecipação de metaheurísticas multi-objetivo são incrementadas com rastreamento bayesiano em ambos os espaços de busca e dos objetivos. A metodologia foi aplicada para a obtenção de decisões de investimento, as quais levaram a melhoras significativas do hipervolume futuro de conjuntos de carteiras financeiras de trade-off avaliadas com dados de ações fora da amostra de treino, quando comparada a uma estratégia míope. Além disso, a tomada de decisões flexíveis para o rebalanceamento de carteiras foi confirmada como uma estratégia significativamente melhor do que a de escolher aleatoriamente uma decisão de investimento a partir da fronteira estocástica eficiente evoluída, em todos os mercados artificiais e reais testados. Finalmente, os resultados sugerem que a antecipação de opções flexíveis levou a composições de carteiras que se mostraram significativamente correlacionadas com as melhorias observadas no hipervolume futuro esperado, avaliado com dados fora das amostras de treinoAbstract: The presence of uncertainty in future outcomes can lead to indecision in choice processes, especially when eliciting the relative importances of multiple decision criteria and of long-term vs. near-term performance. Some decisions, however, must be taken under incomplete information, what may result in precipitated actions with unforeseen consequences. When a solution must be selected under multiple conflicting views for operating in time-varying and noisy environments, implementing flexible provisional alternatives can be critical to circumvent the lack of complete information by keeping future options open. Anticipatory engineering can be then regarded as the strategy of designing flexible solutions that enable decision makers to respond robustly to unpredictable scenarios. This strategy can thus mitigate the risks of strong unintended commitments to uncertain alternatives, while increasing adaptability to future changes. In this thesis, the roles of anticipation and of flexibility on automating sequential multiple criteria decision-making processes under uncertainty are investigated. The dilemma of assigning relative importances to decision criteria and to immediate rewards under incomplete information is then handled by autonomously anticipating flexible decisions predicted to maximally preserve diversity of future choices. An online anticipatory learning methodology is then proposed for improving the range and quality of future trade-off solution sets. This goal is achieved by predicting maximal expected hypervolume sets, for which the anticipation capabilities of multi-objective metaheuristics are augmented with Bayesian tracking in both the objective and search spaces. The methodology has been applied for obtaining investment decisions that are shown to significantly improve the future hypervolume of trade-off financial portfolios for out-of-sample stock data, when compared to a myopic strategy. Moreover, implementing flexible portfolio rebalancing decisions was confirmed as a significantly better strategy than to randomly choosing an investment decision from the evolved stochastic efficient frontier in all tested artificial and real-world markets. Finally, the results suggest that anticipating flexible choices has lead to portfolio compositions that are significantly correlated with the observed improvements in out-of-sample future expected hypervolumeDoutoradoEngenharia de ComputaçãoDoutor em Engenharia Elétric

The dynamics of market efficiency: testing the adaptive market hypothesis in South Africa

A thesis submitted to the School of Economic and Business Sciences, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph/D). Johannesburg, South Africa June 2016In recent years, the debate on market efficiency has shifted to providing alternate forms of the hypothesis, some of which are testable and can be proven false. This thesis examines one such alternative, the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH), with a focus on providing a framework for testing the dynamic (cyclical) notion of market efficiency using South African equity data (44 shares and six indices) over the period 1997 to 2014. By application of this framework, stylised facts emerged. First, the examination of market efficiency is dependent on the frequency of data. If one were to only use a single frequency of data, one might obtain conflicting conclusions. Second, by binning data into smaller sub-samples, one can obtain a pattern of whether the equity market is efficient or not. In other words, one might get a conclusion of, say, randomess, over the entire sample period of daily data, but there may be pockets of non-randomness with the daily data. Third, by running a variety of tests, one provides robustness to the results. This is a somewhat debateable issue as one could either run a variety of tests (each being an improvement over the other) or argue the theoretical merits of each test befoe selecting the more appropriate one. Fourth, analysis according to industries also adds to the result of efficiency, if markets have high concentration sectors (such as the JSE), one might be tempted to conclude that the entire JSE exhibits, say, randomness, where it could be driven by the resources sector as opposed to any other sector. Last, the use of neural networks as approximators is of benefit when examining data with less than ideal sample sizes. Examining five frequencies of data, 86% of the shares and indices exhibited a random walk under daily data, 78% under weekly data, 56% under monthly data, 22% under quarterly data and 24% under semi-annual data. The results over the entire sample period and non-overlapping sub-samples showed that this model's accuracy varied over time. Coupled with the results of the trading strategies, one can conclude that the nature of market efficiency in South Africa can be seen as time dependent, in line with the implication of the AMH.MT201

Smart Energy Management for Smart Grids

This book is a contribution from the authors, to share solutions for a better and sustainable power grid. Renewable energy, smart grid security and smart energy management are the main topics discussed in this book

Measuring knowledge sharing processes through social network analysis within construction organisations

The construction industry is a knowledge intensive and information dependent industry. Organisations risk losing valuable knowledge, when the employees leave them. Therefore, construction organisations need to nurture opportunities to disseminate knowledge through strengthening knowledge-sharing networks. This study aimed at evaluating the formal and informal knowledge sharing methods in social networks within Australian construction organisations and identifying how knowledge sharing could be improved. Data were collected from two estimating teams in two case studies. The collected data through semi-structured interviews were analysed using UCINET, a Social Network Analysis (SNA) tool, and SNA measures. The findings revealed that one case study consisted of influencers, while the other demonstrated an optimal knowledge sharing structure in both formal and informal knowledge sharing methods. Social networks could vary based on the organisation as well as the individuals’ behaviour. Identifying networks with specific issues and taking steps to strengthen networks will enable to achieve optimum knowledge sharing processes. This research offers knowledge sharing good practices for construction organisations to optimise their knowledge sharing processes

The 45th Australasian Universities Building Education Association Conference: Global Challenges in a Disrupted World: Smart, Sustainable and Resilient Approaches in the Built Environment, Conference Proceedings, 23 - 25 November 2022, Western Sydney University, Kingswood Campus, Sydney, Australia

This is the proceedings of the 45th Australasian Universities Building Education Association (AUBEA) conference which will be hosted by Western Sydney University in November 2022. The conference is organised by the School of Engineering, Design, and Built Environment in collaboration with the Centre for Smart Modern Construction, Western Sydney University. This year’s conference theme is “Global Challenges in a Disrupted World: Smart, Sustainable and Resilient Approaches in the Built Environment”, and expects to publish over a hundred double-blind peer review papers under the proceedings

Pameran Reka Cipta, Penyelidikan dan Inovasi (PRPI) 2009

PRPI 2009 kini telah memasuki tahun penganjurannya yang ke-7. Pameran penyelidikan di UPM telah bermula sejak tahun 1997 semasa Exhibition & Seminar Harnessing for Industry Advantage. Pada tahun 2002, Pameran Reka Cipta dan Penyelidikan (PRP) buat pertama kali telah diadakan dengan menggunakan konsep pertandingan hasil projek penyelidikan yang telah dijalankan oleh para penyelidik UPM. Kejayaan penganjuran PRP 2002 telah merintis usaha untuk menjadikannya sebagai aktiviti tahunan UPM dan ianya terus berkembang sejajar dengan nama baharunya yang ditukar kepada Pameran Reka Cipta, Penyelidikan dan Inovasi yang bermula penganjurannya pada tahun 2005. Sebagai kesinambungan daripada kejayaan penganjuran PRPI 2006, 2007 dan 2008 yang lalu dan status UPM sebagai salah sebuah Universiti Penyelidikan, PRPI 2009 kali ini yang merupakan pameran penyelidikan yang terbesar di UPM terus dilaksanakan dengan aspirasi dan semangat yang lebih jitu. Pameran ini juga menjadi pelantar kepada para penyelidik untuk mengenengahkan hasil penyelidikan yang dijalankan dan penemuan baharu kepada umum. Di samping itu ianya juga menjadi penanda aras terhadap kualiti sesuatu projek penyelidikan bagi melayakkan para penyelidik UPM untuk menyertai pameran di peringkat kebangsaan dan seterusnya antarabangsa. Adalah diharapkan pelaksanaan PRPI 2009 ini akan dapat menyemarakkan budaya penyelidikan di kalangan staf dan juga pelajar UPM sekaligus menjadikan UPM sebagai Universiti Penyelidikan yang cemerlang di negara ini